My problem with poe.xyz and why do I think it fucked the economy

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morbo wrote:

Transparency + ease of use = competition ==> low & stable prices

Obfuscated trading + difficulty to use = monopoly & cartel manipulation ==> high prices

Um, no. Sorry to burst your bubble, but what really controls the average price is supply, to include both quantity and whether a small number of buyers have a disproportionate marketshare. A very common item is going to be cheap, even in a system with low visibility which is difficult to use (unless a group manages to corner the market, but with common items this is very difficult); a very rare item is going to be expensive, even in a system such as the one we have now (especially if a single entity has considerable marketshare).

The concepts you're referring to do not affect the mean, they affect the deviation from the mean. With high visibility and high ease of use, prices are uniform; with low visibility and more difficult valuation, the minimum price is lower and the maximum price is higher.

Scrotie you really convinced "scamming" or "flipping" will only be done by the elite and people who can evaluate items?

Imagine poe.xyz was gone and some dude trying to sell an item but he has no "common price" (which poe.xyz offers really easily) do you really think he would

A) sell it cheap

B) Sell it high

C) horde his items out of fear for being jacked

I think a lot of people already do option C even with poe.xyz in place, i cant imagine the increase if poe.xyz was taken down lol.

Imo this is already the case, the economy could have a lot of more potentially good items in them, if the barrier to get scammed was higher and the barrier to trade was lower.

I think there are a shit load of solid items just rotting away in stashes out of fear for the economy.


Edit : i employ option A btw, i sell searing touches on hardcore for an alchemy orb per staff and have soled some retarded high gear for 1 chaos orb or 1 alch orb and it is purely to increase the fun factor for another player, instead of trying to steal it. Something i only occasionally see employed by players.

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

but what really controls the average price is supply,

Buyers not knowing a seller exists, has the same effect as lowered supply (droprate of the item). Therefore a "lower visibility" system rises the prices.

You cannot evaluate an item (by supply), if the item has never dropped for you. Only global knowledge of all players can properly evaluate the supply rate of an item and its price.

XYZ makes trade fair for all. The system you are advocating would benefit only organized cartels, at the expense of the average noob.

,

POE.XYZ is the best thing that ever happened to this game, trading would be retardedly annoying without it. Watching trade spam to buy something? seriously? GTFO.

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Boem wrote:

Scrotie you really convinced "scamming" or "flipping" will only be done by the elite and people who can evaluate items?

No. Do bad poker players still win huge pots? Yes, against other bad poker players... and the worse the player is, the more luck is a factor in his success. However, the majority of huge pots are won by those with skill (because poker is, at its highest levels, a game of skill and not chance).

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Boem wrote:

Imagine poe.xyz was gone and some dude trying to sell an item but he has no "common price" (which poe.xyz offers really easily) do you really think he would

A) sell it cheap

B) Sell it high

Of those who sell, I'd imagine a fairly even distribution between A and B. It's a fallacy to assume players who are ignorant of the mean/median price for an item will consistently err on a lower price. If there is an overall trend towards A, flippers will enter the picture, re-establishing the mean/median price; if there is an overall trend towards B, sales would be low, eventually leading to price reductions. As I said before, difficult valuation primarily affects variance, with only minor impact upon the mean/median itself.

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Boem wrote:

C) horde his items out of fear for being jacked

I think a lot of people already do option C even with poe.xyz in place, i cant imagine the increase if poe.xyz was taken down lol.

Imo this is already the case, the economy could have a lot of more potentially good items in them, if the barrier to get scammed was higher and the barrier to trade was lower.

I think there are a shit load of solid items just rotting away in stashes out of fear for the economy.

This won't happen quite as you describe. The push to trade in Path of Exile is tremendous; the inability to trade an item means you only get Alteration shards, or perhaps a fraction of a Chaos, out of it. This will ensure that, at the very least, the player quickly unloads it for higher than vendor value. Then, as described earlier, the lower prices will be compensated for by flippers — by which I mean those who do not share the Fear — as well as some who simply want to use the items. Of those flippers, some will be skilled (and profit) and some will not (and essentially "scam" themselves).

In other words, less price certainty -> lower sale prices by those with the Fear -> more flipping activity -> similar mean/median prices as before, dictated by supply and demand

Nevertheless, there are two factors which I believe would reduce the number of items in the economy under such a situation:
1. More players would reroll. In a situation where, due to ignorance of prices, "wholesale" price is lower, more "wholesalers" will be tempted to use their spare items for additional characters rather than a small amount of currency. This I view as a good thing.
2. Increase trading delay due to skittishness. A trader who knows his prices makes decisions quickly, while a trader who doesn't is more likely to take his time pondering options. This can be frustrating when you're on the waiting end of that pondering... perhaps especially so if you also have the Fear and are pondering yourself.

I view skittishness mostly as a bad thing, but also natural. Examples of skittishness in the main game are not wanting to fight more difficult map bosses; those without the Fear are sometimes rewarded, sometimes punished. On the one hand, the feeling is proof the game can still be challenging, and overcoming the Fear and succeeding gives a feeling of triumph which is precious when games can offer it. On the other hand, it can lead to roadblocks and moments of awkwardness, especially in multiplayer situations (if you've ever stopped in a map to chat about whether to fight a boss or not, you know what I'm talking about). As such, I don't believe skittishness is something to back away from, because it's a sign you're making real challenges for the players; on the other hand, mitigating side-effects such as downtime and frustration is important.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, in-game trade mechanisms specifically designed to eliminate buyouts completely would be a requisite element of this situation, as relying on simple text-based trading (forums, chat) will always lead to buyouts, thus to searchable buyouts. As such, it is important such in-game trade mechanisms also work to fight delays and resultant frustration in trading.

For example: a silent, buyout-free, escrow-retractable, unlimited duration auction house (this means: you can't see other player's bids, the seller cannot set a buyout, bids "use" your items while they're under consideration, bid may be retracted at any time, and the auction has no fixed end time). Under such a system, sellers don't need to wait on buyers to ponder their options and manage their skittishness, since they can be doing something else in the meantime; and buyers don't have to deal with the pressure of someone waiting on them to make an offer.

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morbo wrote:

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

but what really controls the average price is supply,

Buyers not knowing a seller exists, has the same effect as lowered supply (droprate of the item). Therefore a "lower visibility" system rises the prices.

You cannot evaluate an item (by supply), if the item has never dropped for you. Only global knowledge of all players can properly evaluate the supply rate of an item and its price.

Incorrect. The average price of an item is the average price of absolute sales, not viewed ones. Simple example: let's say an item is listed on xys.is for 4-5 Chaos, and all you know is what xyz.is tells you. However, on trade chat — which you don't know about, because you don't care to look — the average listing is 2-3 Chaos. If you took the average of all trades for that item — whether through xyz.is, non-xyz.is forums, trade chat, or other means — let's say it averages to 3 Chaos. That is the average price, which is modified by (absolute, not subjective) supply and (absolute, not subjective) demand.

The price for the ignorant may be higher, but that is their own damn fault. The fact people act in ignorance of knowledge is not proof knowledge does not exist.

The only thing which reduces supply is when a player who possesses an item refuses to put it on the market — once he does, it is supply, regardless of how many others are aware of it. This is true even if his efforts to put it on the market are pitiful.

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morbo wrote:

XYZ makes trade fair for all. The system you are advocating would benefit only organized cartels, at the expense of the average noob.

If the main game was "fair for all" in the same way xyz.is is "fair for all," then all builds would be equally effective and no one would ever die. What you're talking about is not equality of opportunity, but equality of result. I counter with: those who have more trading skill should have a better result, and those who have less should have a worse one.

And, since the average organized cartel has more trading skill than the average noob: yes, the former would benefit at the expense of the latter. Trading should be a mini-game, not something which everyone has equal stake in (although equal opportunity for a stake), and not part of the main game itself! If you enjoy economic simulators, or you're good at them, then you should be invested in trading, and the trading minigame should throw challenges at you which test your skill; otherwise, you shouldn't be there in the first place.

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Appren wrote:

POE.XYZ is the best thing that ever happened to this game, trading would be retardedly annoying without it. Watching trade spam to buy something? seriously? GTFO.

Seriously not. I understand xyz.is is a necessary evil until proper in-game trading mechanisms are in place, because watching chat spam to buy something can GTFO.

But even necessary evils are evils, and the proper course is to make them unnecessary.

Edit: Damn i missed your style Scro.

Thx a bunch scrotie i enjoyed reading that. All good and well, future will tell.

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

Trading should be a mini-game, not something which everyone has equal stake in (although equal opportunity for a stake), and not part of the main game itself!

Agree 100%. But since trading is a major part of the ARPG game, we have a problem. I dont care for economy, you can have it, and trading and all the crap that comes with it... I came here for the H&S ARPG looting & progression, not to trade with people and be content locked if I dont trade with people and suffer horrid drops because some people like to play eco. sim...

Trading should be a "PvP minigame", yes. Something that allows you to gear up more easily if you are good at it. But sadly for GGG trading is the major gameplay option that is way better at achieving everything than any other gameplay option. Making trading more difficult would not make the other gameplay options (looting & crafitng) any better.