What does it mean "chance" in POE?

"

harddaysnight wrote:

Within the context of games, "chance" means AI. It's the aspect of a game that you aren't supposed to know. A good AI is not predictable. "Chance" is what makes it not predictable. If it becomes predictable, then it's a bad AI.

In a general sense, the more "chances" an AI has, the better the AI. If that was't the case, we might as well just flip coins or play tic-tac-toe.

In single player games, you can just reload a saved game after you know exactly what the AI will do. You have removed the unknowns and have the opportunity to make all the right choices. Some games have an AI that won't let you do that. After reloading a game, it reintroduces chance, and makes the game unpredictable again.

For many people trying to figure out "chance" is what really draws them to a game. That is the appeal as much ore more than actually playing.

Yea, I know this is not what the OP means. But the point is valid. GGG gives away a lot more information about mechanics than most games. But they aren't going to give away everything. That would butcher the AI and ruin the game.

But by not giving all informations it is possible to say that they are admit to manipulation... because why would they not give description to "chance"?
It is how exactly game look like. Even with some fixed rules through difficulty level this difficulty may change highly within same map tier.

All of this creating situation where players are artificially stoped due to circumstances that through logic - should be not in the game.

For example... I have observed that situation which should be a paradigm that by playing on easy maps should increase playing time but let for player easly go through it to achieve next level. However game is designed to prevent it. Time to time system creating some variable circumstances which are puting to the game or very powerful monster or because some reason/somehow game will freez etc and all of those things will lead to the situation that player will die loosing experience that have achieved.

It is possible to say that game will only allow for us to progress only if we will be playing by her rules (even that by the logic it might be a different way) - spending a money on the game by... collecting, collecting, collecting.

...and all of this becuse "chance" is not described so we even do not know what is probobility to find a specific currency, what is linkin chance (or how it works) because even by heaving 6000 fo we can not be sure that we will gona make it due to the every single roll in linkin.

Chance is the mathematical probability of something happening. Thats all. If you dont remember the probability basics from school go to wiki and learn about it. Its like rolling a dice, flipping a coin, playing cards, roulette etc.. you also dont blame dice manufacturer from not giving you information how chance works, do you?

"

Ludvator wrote:

Chance is the mathematical probability of something happening. Thats all. If you dont remember the probability basics from school go to wiki and learn about it. Its like rolling a dice, flipping a coin, playing cards, roulette etc.. you also dont blame dice manufacturer from not giving you information how chance works, do you?

So... what is the chance to link 6 socket?

Math telling that it should be 720 moves (even less due to the fact that socket sequencing is fixed and it has only one direction) due to the Strong of 6 (6!)... I have already spent about 3000 orb of fusing.

Where is this chance that you are talking about?

"

neosphoros wrote:

"

Ludvator wrote:

Chance is the mathematical probability of something happening. Thats all. If you dont remember the probability basics from school go to wiki and learn about it. Its like rolling a dice, flipping a coin, playing cards, roulette etc.. you also dont blame dice manufacturer from not giving you information how chance works, do you?

So... what is the chance to link 6 socket?

Math telling that it should be 720 moves due to the Strong of 6 (6!)... I have already spent about 3000 orb of fusing.

Where is this chance that you are talking about?

learn the probability basics, you already got link to wiki

chance doesn't guarantee anything.. if you flip the coin, you have 50% CHANCE to get Head. But does it also mean you are guaranteed to get Tail in second try when you hit Head in the first try and vice versa? Go try it yourself..

"

Ludvator wrote:

"

neosphoros wrote:

"

Ludvator wrote:

Chance is the mathematical probability of something happening. Thats all. If you dont remember the probability basics from school go to wiki and learn about it. Its like rolling a dice, flipping a coin, playing cards, roulette etc.. you also dont blame dice manufacturer from not giving you information how chance works, do you?

So... what is the chance to link 6 socket?

Math telling that it should be 720 moves due to the Strong of 6 (6!)... I have already spent about 3000 orb of fusing.

Where is this chance that you are talking about?

learn the probability basics, you already got link to wiki

chance doesn't guarantee anything.. if you flip the coin, you have 50% CHANCE to get Head. But does it also mean you are guaranteed to get Tail in second try when you hit Head in the first try and vice versa? Go try it yourself..

Only in theory. But if it is about programming - Not at all.

Everything is detrimendet by physics or programming code. If you will throw your 2 sides coin ABSOLUTELLY EXACTLY in the same way (same strengh, same high,same rotation speed) as before and conditions around you will be ABSOLUTELLY EXACTLY as before (let sey for example - no air resistance and other factors what could have affect and might be different then before - on that throw) you will achieve ABSOLUTELLY EXACTLY result.

50% of the chance in case of the coin in PERFECT THEORETICAL conditions will be mean that coin will always fall on the edge.

Same in programming. Even random function is created by based on fixed circumstances (mostly time and added - known only for the one who create that function - different variable)... person who have create that function - could easly predict every single roll of that function.

sorry but you talk here about programming but have absolutely no idea about probability basics? And then nitpicking about perfect conditions while flipping a coin? [Removed by Support]

@ OP...

Well, I confess, I've been wondering for a long time whether you were trolling or for real. Now at least we know. Congrats, well done, but why give it away now?

"

Ludvator wrote:

sorry but you talk here about programming but have absolutely no idea about probability basics? And then nitpicking about perfect conditions while flipping a coin? [Removed by Support]

Probobility is only a theory if it says that chance of 2 sided coin = 50% but it will depend on condition constructor what result will you get (God -if you believe - as a creator of this world or - you - as a programist of sprcific software). In the real life everything detrimend by to set initial state and final state (same in programming).

"

GreyLensman wrote:

@ OP...

Well, I confess, I've been wondering for a long time whether you were trolling or for real. Now at least we know. Congrats, well done, but why give it away now?

Prove it.

Where I'm lying?

"

neosphoros wrote:

If you will throw your 2 sides coin ABSOLUTELLY EXACTLY in the same way (same strengh, same high,same rotation speed) as before and conditions around you will be ABSOLUTELLY EXACTLY

It's not exactly the same. The random number generator is code that is always the same. It doesn't generate exactly the same number each time because it uses a "seed" to start the process.

An example of a seed, is the time. The code asks the computer what time it is. The computer gives the time with high precision. Since time constantly changes, the seed will always be different. So you can't have the exact same conditions like you described.

If the time was the same, then yes, the code would generate the same random number. But the time is NOT the same, so the random number is not the same. It's not possible to have the same exact conditions.