What does it mean "chance" in POE?
" The reason you are not seeing any enemy being blinded is because Righteous Fire does not work with Blind. Blind needs a hit to be applied. Righteous Fire doesn't hit. Nothing about Righteous Fire is chance based. It doesn't hit and the damage over time does not have a damage range. It also can't crit. No effects that utilize chance can be applied to it. It's about the most consistent skill in the game so a bit weird to use it as an example in a discussion that's apparently about RNG. Now about chance. Hit damage is completely random, it can be any number between minimum and maximum damage all with equal weighting. Stuff like 8% chance to blind is also completely random, meaning on average 8/100 hits will apply blind but this is not guaranteed. The same goes for crits. To make damage/proc's feel more consistent simply have more attack/cast speed or stack more proc chance. Drops/encounters/mods on an item are also completely random with weightings making certain stuff more rare or more common. The only thing that uses "stacking" chance is Evasion. If you have exactly 50% chance to Evade you will always evade 1 hit every 2 hits. Last edited by Bardharr#3094 on Oct 23, 2019, 8:28:38 PM
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If I'm understanding your question right. I don't think they add any mechanism in this game to stack the chances like you describe. Some people have spent about 10,000 fusing orbs trying to six link an item, when statistically it should only take about 700. So even if you had a 75% chance to block or dodge, theoretically you could still get hit every time.
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https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2149153 https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2245701 https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2664371 Shaper Guide: https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2252008 |
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Let's make sure we're giving good info here...
There ARE some conditional probabilities in PoE. A big one that comes to mind is, in fact, Evasion. GGG refers to this as an "entropy based" probability. What this means is that, the more times in a row something manages to evade, the more likely it is to get hit. So a 50% evade chance is not always really 50%. You can read how it works on the Wiki under Evasion, but DON'T look up Entropy on the Wiki, because you will just get the entry for the notable passive, which is something completely different. (Just to make sure we don't confuse anybody...) Block and Dodge are not entropy based. And, yes, none of this has anything to do with Righteous Fire, which as a spell can never be evaded. Cheers Last edited by GreyLensman#5323 on Oct 23, 2019, 10:51:54 PM
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" Look up the definition of "nearby" in Wraeclast. That should clear everything up. |
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" Theoretycly... yes. |
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You have to use actual probabilities and numbers to understand what's happening here.
First, quality is the way you "stack" the odds in your favor when 6 linking. No one knows what the actual odds are at max quality, but the people complaining about spending too many fusings usually have not maxed quality. Let's use 1 in 1500 as the odds if quality is not maxed, since there seems to be better consensus on that. Second, I have never seen anyone claim to have spent 10,000 fusings, but ok, let's go with it. (I have seen people claim 4,000 to 6,000, but let's go with 10,000.) At 1 in 1500 to succeed, the odds of missing your 6 link 10,000 times in a row are roughly 1.3 in 1,000. If even 10 people a day try 6-linking w/o quality, there are going to be about 5 people a year who spend 10,000 fusings and don't succeed. Or let's change the numbers and assume the odds of success, with quality, are 1 in 500. The odds of missing that 6 link 4,000 times in a row are about 3.3 in 10,000. So if 100 experienced players a day try 6 linking with max quality, you are still going to have 1 person or so every year who fails in 4,000 tries. Very low odds events will happen, especially with enough players. That's the nature of probability. Feel free to check the math - I did this quickly. Last edited by GreyLensman#5323 on Oct 24, 2019, 11:26:56 AM
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" But "linkin" is absolutely something different. I'm saying that if the "chance" is not described and not known is initial and final state of that chance function counter (if it exist) in some circumstances may never be recalled (in case of specific gems onnections). What is depend - when "chance" counter in array will stop in specific place in this array? Last edited by neosphoros#6716 on Oct 24, 2019, 6:50:43 PM
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Where do you see “chance” without a number saying what the percentage of the time the condition happens?
Guild Leader The Amazon Basin <BASIN>
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" This sounds like you are saying that, if the player does not know what the probability is, then the code can't know either. Since that makes no sense, I'm sure I'm misunderstanding you. |
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I believe that "chance" in PoE relates solely to the probability that a player will engage with non-ferrous metallic headgear if RNG doesn't go their way or if they don't understand how a mechanic works (including aforementioned RNG). Said probability is considered lucky (or unlucky depending on how you view it) if a one-in-a-thousand event (item drop, boss appearing in delve, etc) doesn't occur on the first try.
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