What does it mean "chance" in POE?
" If you think that I'm lying or that I'm writing stupid things would you like to prove it by undermine my example about linkin gems? Math telling that to use all possible combinations in 6 element pack it should be enough 720 moves due to the Strong of 6 (6!)... However in case of Poe linking is happening only in one direction and for example 6 can not connect with 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6 so... With my calculation to link 6 sockets every player should use not more than 27 orb of fusing (in math it is called "Variations without repetition"): 1)1-2 2)1-2-3 3)1-2-3-4 4)1-2-3-4-5 5)1-2,3-4 6)1-2,3-4-5 7)1-2,3-4-5-6 8)1-2-3,4-5 9)1-2-3,4-5-6 10)1-2,4-5 11)1-2,5-6 12)1-2,4-5-6 13)2-3 14)2-3-4 15)2-3-4-5 16)2-3-4-5-6 17)2-3,4-5 18)2-3,4-5-6 19)2-3,5-6 20)3-4 21)3-4-5 22)3-4-5-6 23)3-4,5-6 24)4-5 25)4-5-6 26)5-6 27)1-2-3-4-5-6 Now we can see that chance should be like 1/27 ~ 3,7% which is mean that in the moment of using of 27th orb we should have 100% chance to link 6 sockets It is like heaving bunch of keys when you do not know which one is the right one to open the lock. You have to guess. You have to check everyone till you will find the rightone but to do it you will put away the wrong keys to another bunch. Because of that your chances will increase with every next key (in other way why would you try to check once again the same key that you know that is wrong?). Prove it that I'm wrong. Last edited by neosphoros#6716 on Oct 29, 2019, 8:00:03 PM
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You are attempting to use combinatorics to solve a problem in probability for which combinatoric methods are irrelevant. Perhaps you do this intentionally because you enjoy the trolling, or unintentionally because you don't understand the difference. I obviously don't know. But the fact that you claim to be a math expert, and should know better, implies that you are simply trolling.
What you have written above assumes that each fusing is somehow related to one of the possible combinations of linked/unlinked sockets in the set of possible link combinations, and that when you try to link, you "use up" one of those combinations which cannot then be "reused" in a future attempt, thus limiting the number of fusings it should take to succeed. Unfortunately, the probability to successfully achieve a 6 link is arbitrarily set by GGG and not related in any way to the number of possible linked/unlinked socket combinations. They could make the odds 1 in 2 or 1 in a million if they wanted. And each attempt is independent, with the same probability as every other. But do keep going with your proof, by all means. I'm enjoying watching. The one thing we can all agree on, is that nobody knows for sure what the odds are, or whether they have changed. I've seen some folks claiming that GGG have made the odds worse, but I think those are just guys who got lucky a few times before getting the nasty tail of the distribution. Last edited by GreyLensman#5323 on Oct 29, 2019, 10:38:19 PM
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" They have stated that now that you can get the quility up to 30% on an item, that this will help in the 6L process..... And yes, I agree totally with the rest in your post. I would say that @OP = T status is confirmed. |
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" ...and in that way we finally are in the point where we supposed to be. Without describing a definition of a "chance" they can change anything and anytime they want and to make the game to be different for every each of us. It is impossible also to say about any form of probability if the chance is unknown and the odds might be changed freely by GGG. Last edited by neosphoros#6716 on Oct 30, 2019, 9:39:17 AM
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they have nothing to gain and everything to lose by changing odds for things individually player by player, its a whole load of work for no benefit, suggesting that theyre doing this is utterly absurd.
I love all you people on the forums, we can disagree but still be friends and respect each other :)
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" What they may lose if chance probobility is hidden and might be variable (or changed patch after patch by them)? Last edited by neosphoros#6716 on Nov 1, 2019, 9:14:22 AM
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" Well my personal idea about this is that it's the same about crafting --> When they change the crafting system and added the craft mods "prefix can't be changed / suffix can't be change" + added anulment orbs, then there was a lot of question about it and when a GGG mod posted about it, it was deleted shortly after. Chris was asked about the reason for this, and his reply was --> That is something the players themself has to find out and understand. This is how we designed the game and we will not explain about this. Again it's the same when they are asked about the 6L process. The only thing they have stated is that average 6L will take 1200 fusings if the item is 20%Q and "lessor" if it's 30%Q. Again please read the ToS that you accepted when you made your PoE account. If you can't accept how GGG designes the game and what rules they have, then you shouldn't be using their software. |
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" I have not read it. Have you read it? Have any 9,10,11-99 yo player have read TOS? Containing in those rules negative expressions that may effect on the client/user/player should be prohibited. True is that is not about "Chris" (whoever he is) it is about Chinese Tencent (real owner of GGG) and money. This company is extremely greedy company. They are not trying to develope the game in the right direction but it seams that they are trying to limit the player by slowing them down in game progress. I bet that after 1 month or 2 they will release another patch which will give possibility to increase weapons quality to 40%, but it is because most people will already have +30 (corrupted)... will have to start everything from the beggining... so they will need another stash tab to save previous equipment ant to collect currency for newone, so... once again we will have to spent some dollars. That is how they are making a money. Last edited by neosphoros#6716 on Nov 1, 2019, 9:17:54 AM
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" First, Chris is one of the founders of GGG and he owned some of GGG before it was sold to Tencent. He is still the CEO of the company so what he says goes. PoE is develope exactly the way GGG wants it to be develope and that is --> A speciel restricted chinese version of the game running only in China and a "public" worldwide version that is the one you are using right now. Again, if you have this big problems with the game/GGG/Tencent and truly believe the things you say, then I really don't understand why you are using their software. Last edited by HanSoloDK#4843 on Nov 1, 2019, 11:29:14 AM
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" It seems that you also understand the problem so... answer for your own question will be probably will be the one that you already know. But question is... if you know the problem - why you accepting it pretending that is not exist. Last edited by neosphoros#6716 on Nov 1, 2019, 9:03:09 PM
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