What does it mean "chance" in POE?
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dude, do you know how coinflip works?
IGN: Eric_Lindros
CET: Timezone | |
" But even if you will see description like "40% chance to hit enemy" it might be calculated on many different ways. For example it can be simple array of 10 numbers where 4 represent that "chance". That array will be able to be recalled by "random" function which will try to select "random" number... but this may relate to for example: or - single hit or - to global hit in case of group of monster when 6 not hited will effect that next 4 will take dmg. Situation staying more complicated if you will add more variables (I'm sorry for my english - I'm still learning). Last edited by neosphoros on Oct 26, 2019, 6:58:05 PM
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But they’ve said on many occasions that each roll of whatever is independant of other rolls. So each attack in your example has a 40% chance to hit. Which is no different than saying 4 attacks out of 10 will hit or 40 attacks out of 100 will hit. Nor is it different than saying 60% of the time, the attack will miss. It’s all the same thing. Each attack rolls a virtual die with the programmed odds of hitting or missing. Each attack won’t know or care if the previous attack hit or missed.
There is only one instance in this game where they’ve said it’s different and that is evasion. They’ve described in detail what the evasion mechanic is. It’s the only one that factors in what happened previously. Guild Leader The Amazon Basin <BASIN> Play Nice and Show Some Class www.theamazonbasin.com Last edited by mark1030 on Oct 26, 2019, 7:22:23 PM
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" Show me those informations... ...and tell me why the "chance" is not described? There is a formula for luck, evasion, armor, blocking etc... why there is no formula for "chance" which is affection every of those definitions? Chance affeecting skills activation probobility, items quantity and rarity, special events appearance... how could we even know that the "chance" changing anything if we do not know the base of the values... for example what does it mean if the specific map have no attribute: item quantity (or rarity) and what is the different between if this map will have that attribute... what is the value of the "base" and how "chance" changing it? Last edited by neosphoros on Oct 27, 2019, 9:00:51 AM
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there is no formula for chance because the word is not a mechanic. It’s just an english word that tells you something is a probability. You will never see it in the game without a number saying what the odds are.
Every one of your “examples” is a mechanic that can use the word “chance” to describe that there are odds that a possibility will occur. Dodge chance, block chance, crit chance drop chance. It’s all chance. Why aren’t you as fervently arguing why “flask” doesn’t have a formula? It’s just an english word that describes something just like the word chance describes something. You don’t need to know the base value for things to understand how additional chance affects it. If somebody slaps your face because you’re saying stupid things, do you need to know how stupid the things you are saying are to understand that 100% increased face slap chance will double the number of slaps your face gets? Guild Leader The Amazon Basin <BASIN> Play Nice and Show Some Class www.theamazonbasin.com Last edited by mark1030 on Oct 27, 2019, 9:52:13 AM
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well no offense @neosphoros, but is this again a case of you have problems understanding this because it's english?
Simply stated, chance in PoE is following the mathematic rules --> (Chance may refer to Probability witch it does here in PoE) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability Probability is a measure quantifying the likelihood that events will occur. Probability quantifies as a number between 0 and 1, where, roughly speaking, 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty. The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it is that the event will occur. --> and that is why you in PoE see that stats --> X% chance to ignite / freezy / Posion and so on. Does this help? And just to confirm @mark1030 is spot on with what he wrote here --> But they’ve said on many occasions that each roll of whatever is independant of other rolls. So each attack in your example has a 40% chance to hit. Which is no different than saying 4 attacks out of 10 will hit or 40 attacks out of 100 will hit. Nor is it different than saying 60% of the time, the attack will miss. It’s all the same thing. Each attack rolls a virtual die with the programmed odds of hitting or missing. Each attack won’t know or care if the previous attack hit or missed. There is only one instance in this game where they’ve said it’s different and that is evasion. They’ve described in detail what the evasion mechanic is. It’s the only one that factors in what happened previously. | |
" I'm understanding math with no problem at all but without knowing a base values even AMAZING description of 100% incresed chance "for something" - means absolutely nothing if the base value for this is equal for example 0,000001 - which could means that in the base you have to hit/kill 1mln times before your chance will go. However without that informaton about the "base" devs can simply manipulate those values making a game - unfair for us and maybe deifferent for every each of us. Why there is no description if this is so simple? It might be the most complex definitions in the game so it should be the as a first explained to understand the game mechanics. Last edited by neosphoros on Oct 27, 2019, 11:53:17 AM
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" Well then I don't understand what it is you don't understand --> Example 1 --> 10% chance to poison / ignite / freaaze on "hit" means that you have a 1 in 10 chance to do that when you hit. So the higher the chance the more often you are going to do "that". Example 2 --> 40% increase crit chance of XX --> As you you can see on the Skill gem, base crit chance is 5% so this is the value being changed. | |
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I believe he's looking to understand the base values and modifiers for all parameters in all circumstances that can affect an outcome that the player might be interested in. Along with an understanding of the formulas that relate the input probabilities and parameters to the outputs. (At least that's the way I'm reading it, in conjunction with some of the questions he's asked on other posts.)
For example, if one circumstance of a level 72 Temple run can be much more dangerous than another circumstance of a level 72 Temple, how can the player know, in a quantifiable way, exactly what is going into that difference, how it is determined, and what the impact is. And this is quite apart from his question of whether that kind of difference might represent a flawed game design philosophy - depending on your perspective. But maybe I'm misunderstanding. In any case, I know there is nothing I can contribute here. Cheers Last edited by GreyLensman on Oct 27, 2019, 12:25:05 PM
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Within the context of games, "chance" means AI. It's the aspect of a game that you aren't supposed to know. A good AI is not predictable. "Chance" is what makes it not predictable. If it becomes predictable, then it's a bad AI.
In a general sense, the more "chances" an AI has, the better the AI. If that was't the case, we might as well just flip coins or play tic-tac-toe. In single player games, you can just reload a saved game after you know exactly what the AI will do. You have removed the unknowns and have the opportunity to make all the right choices. Some games have an AI that won't let you do that. After reloading a game, it reintroduces chance, and makes the game unpredictable again. For many people trying to figure out "chance" is what really draws them to a game. That is the appeal as much ore more than actually playing. Yea, I know this is not what the OP means. But the point is valid. GGG gives away a lot more information about mechanics than most games. But they aren't going to give away everything. That would butcher the AI and ruin the game. |
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