My Thoughts about RNG Manipulation.

This thread gave me the dumb
Multi-Demi Winner
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Alt-Art Alpha’s Howl Winner
Former Dominus Multiboxer
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Mammatus wrote:
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nGio wrote:
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Mammatus wrote:
I work in a casino, statistical improbabilities happen all the time and there is always 1 exception loser at the table saying;
'after 31 it always comes 13'
If it comes 13 he says 'see, I told you'
If it doesn't come 13 he just doesn't register it as he only sees shit in the world that confirms the stupid connections his flawed mind has constructed in it's attempts to make sense of the chaotic world.


That's a lot different than every player hitting 13 every night from precisely 6pm to 7pm, and from 7:01pm to 5:59pm no one hitting 13. Are there weird people that believe in Astrology and Homeopathy and a bunch of other weird off the wall shit? Of course. But refusing to believe something in front of you just because you don't want to see it is equally as silly.


There you go again..... so you did the math and the shit you are seeing is equal to everyone hitting 13 from 6pm to 7pm lol. You really do have a strange brain, you are trying to convey statistical improbabilities with no idea how to get an idea across in a convincing manner, just making shit up.

You believe something
You have no proof and haven't actually looked into it
You have no evidence that you can back up
you are starting a religion

Get some proof that doesn't involve 'I saw this' and you might make someone think rather then roll their eyes.


Hey I'd appreciate it if you'd calm down a bit buddy. I can tell that you're getting upset, and I apologize if I struck a vital nerve with me sharing an experience. There is no reason to go on the offensive here.. Being able to look at someone else's perspectives and experiences while being open minded towards a subject is one of the traits that separates man from ape, but if you're just gonna throw shit my face then I'm not going to have this conversation with you. This game obviously means a lot to you, but please sir quit being so mad over something so little.
Last edited by nGio#1658 on Jan 13, 2014, 8:32:46 AM
Well I dislike things been put forward as fact and backed up by 'evidence' which is only supported by your say so.


That kind of shit annoys me and that line of thinking causes a lot of problems in the world.

Perspective and experience are one thing, but often there is a bias behind them and they deserve to be ignored until presented properly.

I don't even rule out the idea that drops are based on something and thus not random... I just think you are doing it all wrong.
Last edited by Mammatus#4838 on Jan 13, 2014, 8:39:24 AM
Statistics generally has a perspective/expectation/wishful thinking problem. The chances to get lung cancer from smoking are about 1:4000 so people usually go "why should it be me?". The chances of winning the lottery are, depending on the system, in the range of 1: xxx millions but people still buy tickets because, "hey, why shouldn't it be me?" :-D

nGio, I have noticed these trends on the indexers as well, but there are other reasons that things show up in clumps.

The first thing in the week long races you will notice, is things will appear, not when the first people hit the ilvl requirement for an item, but later when the mass of average players hit that level.
The second thing is that people tend to have extremely patterned lives. That means that often times they will post their shops at the same time according to when they go to work or when they get home, or right after dinner.
I would attribute some of the things you have mentioned to human statistics rather than any RNG conspiracy since indexers can't tell when things drop, merely when they post.

On the other hand I have a friend who swears that the game spies on him through skype since there have been numerous instances of him mentioning items and them dropping shortly afterwards.

To each his own though!
I always have to laugh at these types of threads. Its surprises me how people believe something with absolutely no evidence. Well no I guess it doesn't, this is how religion works after all...
Last edited by derbefrier#6652 on Jan 13, 2014, 12:55:20 PM
Or, quoting a sticker on a colleague's lab door: "In God we trust, all others must bring data." :-D
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exhortatory wrote:
It's a decent attempt at a plausible explanation given the amount of data you have access to, but as noted elsewhere it's really unlikely that GGG would have the experience necessary to create and successfully run PoE from scratch and make that sort of ... choice.


As noted elsewhere by me, as well, in the same post where I presented the idea.

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syrioforel wrote:

Then, this would explain the behavior that you just described without anything sinister going on, right? It would just be an error on GGG's part, resulting from an (incredibly) naive way of computing drops. Maybe their drop system is a bit naive, then. Who knows?

(This, by the way, is one kind of bug that I might believe would happen, but I would hope GGG has better coding chops than this.)


IGN: SplitEpimorphism
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CCR5 wrote:
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Twiiik wrote:
Now over to my pet peeve and totally off topic!


It is about knowing how programming project operates from inside.
That additional code for manipulating needs to be written, tested and maintained.
Nobody wants it.
And if you screw up with this code, you'll get bugs like that guy on stream with 300 uniques at the same time.

Why would you ever need to dynamically manipulate unique drops probabilities
if you could just set flat probability roll and forget?

Creator of the thread doesn't even pass basic sanity test in my book:

"ive recently had the feeling that RNG is being ACTIVELY MANIPULATED to create situations. Like several race teams getting the items they want/need and see who uses em better, forcing dsyncing in certain situations"

so there must a person in the team assigned to watch races (what if they don't stream? what if timezones are different?) and press buttons and desync people (in real time, suuuuure, ever heard of stream delays?) and you pay money to that person.

For what exactly would you pay money?


Yeah, exactly.
IGN: SplitEpimorphism
Syrio you're losing your touch :P
Dys an sohm
Rohs an kyn
Sahl djahs afah
Mah morn narr

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