D4 will probably not beat PoE 2, but...

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muzein wrote:

There's no way to compare the two audiences.

That's like boasting about the success of the TV show Barney & Friends to people who watch Frasier. Sure, they're both TV shows from the early 90's and they both have a run time of 30 minutes. Outside of that they have nothing to do with each other.

The people who like PoE sink thousands of hours into the game. To them, it's a high quality game. To them, there is no other game that comes close to offering what PoE offers.

I've seen countless 'Diablo Fans' pre-order D4 with the intention to play through the story--and that's it. To them, that's what Diablo offers and it does it better than PoE and possibly better than any aRPG.


As a PoE player, nothing about D4's success is relevant to me. Imagine going to a Foo Fighters concert and the dude next to you starts talking about Justin Beiber's success...

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DarthSki44 wrote:

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Phrazz wrote:

But how long can each season in D4 hold on to the players?

Yeah idk. How long does that happen in PoE? 4-6 weeks on scale before things really drop off? (Edit: and that was before D4 and we don't know how competitive the season/ league dates will be)

Plus D4 monetization is right up front, where PoE needs that concurrency far more than D4 does if players are engaging in both. Basically you could have people playing a PoE league while simultaneously being fully monetized in D4. (Granted we don't have full understanding of the D4 cash shop)

It really is impossible for PoE to compete on level. GGG is probably just going to have to put blinders on, put their heads down, and work on PoE2 regardless of how bad the numbers are. I don't think they can really do anything about it.

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Thesuffering wrote:

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DarthSki44 wrote:

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Phrazz wrote:

But how long can each season in D4 hold on to the players?

Yeah idk. How long does that happen in PoE? 4-6 weeks on scale before things really drop off? (Edit: and that was before D4 and we don't know how competitive the season/ league dates will be)

Plus D4 monetization is right up front, where PoE needs that concurrency far more than D4 does if players are engaging in both. Basically you could have people playing a PoE league while simultaneously being fully monetized in D4. (Granted we don't have full understanding of the D4 cash shop)

It really is impossible for PoE to compete on level. GGG is probably just going to have to put blinders on, put their heads down, and work on PoE2 regardless of how bad the numbers are. I don't think they can really do anything about it.

What makes you think POE numbers will be bad? Even when POE had shitty league vents and there was a great alternative not everyone went like when the Last Epoch Multiplayer patch was released.

I am not even convinced the ones that like D3 over POE even played POE.

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DarthSki44 wrote:

Of course it's all speculating. I just think the crossover is larger than the 10% you are thinking it will be. We are are admittedly both just guessing on that.

PoE's high water mark for concurrency is around 250k or so. I just think the D4 impact is more than 25-30k players on that scope. Idk maybe it is only that, but the interest these past few weekends seems fairly large in the PoE community.

It will be interesting to see how much crossover interest there actually is, and how sustained those numbers are as Phrazz mentioned.

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Thesuffering wrote:

POE spikes to 2 million every league

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DarthSki44 wrote:

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Thesuffering wrote:

POE spikes to 2 million every league

Idk know about that number actually. I've not seen a GGG post about individual player accounts, and quite frankly in a F2P,with botting, I don't know what that would mean anyways.

Plus GGG still has a client based launcher which represents around 40% of their players. We don't know based on steam only, without doing some math estimates what the true concurrency is unless they tell us. And they don't do that all the time. For example 3.15 and 3.19, which didn't go well at all, GGG didn't say much.

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Thesuffering wrote:

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DarthSki44 wrote:

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Thesuffering wrote:

POE spikes to 2 million every league

Idk know about that number actually. I've not seen a GGG post about individual player accounts, and quite frankly in a F2P,with botting, I don't know what that would mean anyways.

Plus GGG still has a client based launcher which represents around 40% of their players. We don't know based on steam only, without doing some math estimates what the true concurrency is unless they tell us. And they don't do that all the time. For example 3.15 and 3.19, which didn't go well at all, GGG didn't say much.

You can see the numbers here:
https://mmo-population.com/r/pathofexile/stats

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Latze wrote:

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Thesuffering wrote:

You can see the numbers here:
https://mmo-population.com/r/pathofexile/stats

That site must be wrong.

If I remember correctly, they had ~300000 total players at the start of Siege of the Atlas expansion and ~150000 steam players. That was one of the most successful leagues.

edit: https://mmo-population.com/about

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DarthSki44 wrote:

It really is impossible for PoE to compete on level

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Thesuffering wrote:

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Latze wrote:

"

Thesuffering wrote:

You can see the numbers here:
https://mmo-population.com/r/pathofexile/stats

That site must be wrong.

If I remember correctly, they had ~300000 total players at the start of Siege of the Atlas expansion and ~150000 steam players. That was one of the most successful leagues.

edit: https://mmo-population.com/about

That is concurrent players, not the number of active users in a day.