D4 will probably not beat PoE 2, but...

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Latze wrote:

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Thesuffering wrote:

You can see the numbers here:
https://mmo-population.com/r/pathofexile/stats

That site must be wrong.

If I remember correctly, they had ~300000 total players at the start of Siege of the Atlas expansion and ~150000 steam players. That was one of the most successful leagues.

edit: https://mmo-population.com/about

That is concurrent players:

https://www.mmorpg.com/news/path-of-exile-hits-new-record-of-270260-concurrent-players-with-siege-of-the-atlas-2000124280

This site aims to get the number of players in a day.

The difference is with concurrent players is that it aims to snapshot the highest amount of players at any given time.

Problem with this metric is that it doesn't represent how many players played that day. Most people play a few hours a day even at launch of a season.

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DarthSki44 wrote:

Yeah... I wouldn't trust the accuracy on that site for PoE based on how they are doing the metrics.

And considering how registering for PoE works in their F2P, that's not even a good indicator anyways.

I think player concurrency through steam and whatever GGG posts is more reliable. Meh not a big deal tho, we will find out here in about 60ish days what happens with D4.

Concurrency is not a good metric though because it represents no lifers and not the average POE player.

I think active accounts is a better metric, though to get those numbers is hard. And this site is the best we got regarding that.

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Thesuffering wrote:

"

Latze wrote:

"

Thesuffering wrote:

You can see the numbers here:
https://mmo-population.com/r/pathofexile/stats

That site must be wrong.

If I remember correctly, they had ~300000 total players at the start of Siege of the Atlas expansion and ~150000 steam players. That was one of the most successful leagues.

edit: https://mmo-population.com/about

That is concurrent players:

https://www.mmorpg.com/news/path-of-exile-hits-new-record-of-270260-concurrent-players-with-siege-of-the-atlas-2000124280

This site aims to get the number of players in a day.

The difference is with concurrent players is that it aims to snapshot the highest amount of players at any given time.

Problem with this metric is that it doesn't represent how many players played that day. Most people play a few hours a day even at launch of a season.

Reading a description of what site, reveals that all it does is measuring Reddit activity. That's basically a joke. At the moment D4 would have enormous population by this metric, despite actually being offline.
There is no way to consider this data credible at all.

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Reid777 wrote:

Reading a description of what site, reveals that all it does is measuring Reddit activity. That's basically a joke. At the moment D4 would have enormous population by this metric, despite actually being offline.
There is no way to consider this data credible at all.

That isnt how it gets its numbers, you need players actually playing it to get a number greater than 0.

EDIT:

"

This is the number taken from averaging out the biggest and most recently known public subscriber and daily player numbers vs reddit subscribers.

I believe Diablo 4 will be a huge success initially, selling millions of copies as much as or more than D3. but that in 4~6 months it will be completely abandoned. the game is very simple, has many problems and a very weak story (from what I've seen so far) a generic theme like lost ark and a casual system based on borrowed power like D3 and its specific sets. Have fun for a while but...

and look, none of this is a compliment to poe since here things are heading towards what makes D4 bad. I hope GGG sees this as a wake up call.

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Thesuffering wrote:

"

Reid777 wrote:

Reading a description of what site, reveals that all it does is measuring Reddit activity. That's basically a joke. At the moment D4 would have enormous population by this metric, despite actually being offline.
There is no way to consider this data credible at all.

That isnt how it gets its numbers, you need players actually playing it to get a number greater than 0.

EDIT:

"

This is the number taken from averaging out the biggest and most recently known public subscriber and daily player numbers vs reddit subscribers.

125 million players for WOW?

On Rank 44 Wildstar?

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Latze wrote:

"

Thesuffering wrote:

"

Reid777 wrote:

Reading a description of what site, reveals that all it does is measuring Reddit activity. That's basically a joke. At the moment D4 would have enormous population by this metric, despite actually being offline.
There is no way to consider this data credible at all.

That isnt how it gets its numbers, you need players actually playing it to get a number greater than 0.

EDIT:

"

This is the number taken from averaging out the biggest and most recently known public subscriber and daily player numbers vs reddit subscribers.

125 million players for WOW?

On Rank 44 Wildstar?

Sounds about right for WoW. That is unique accounts. I have 5 WoW accounts and one i actually play lol.

And I believe the number for Wildstar. It was actually a really good game. It died because people thought it was a furry sim.

Well, it definitely beats a game that is still a vision.

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Thesuffering wrote:

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DarthSki44 wrote:

Of course it's all speculating. I just think the crossover is larger than the 10% you are thinking it will be. We are are admittedly both just guessing on that.

PoE's high water mark for concurrency is around 250k or so. I just think the D4 impact is more than 25-30k players on that scope. Idk maybe it is only that, but the interest these past few weekends seems fairly large in the PoE community.

It will be interesting to see how much crossover interest there actually is, and how sustained those numbers are as Phrazz mentioned.

I dont think we can even get concurrency numbers for D4, they wont reveal it imo. We can get daily users probably. POE spikes to 2 million every league. I wonder how much D4 goes to.

I'm going out on a whim here but I easily think D4 will have more than 3+ million players on official opening day.

They already reported more than 1 million players during opening beta. Dunno if it was peak concurrent players or just amount of accounts logging in in total.

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Sounds about right for WoW. That is unique accounts. I have 5 WoW accounts and one i actually play lol.

And I believe the number for Wildstar. It was actually a really good game. It died because people thought it was a furry sim.

125 million people are not playing Wow and 2 million people are not playing PoE.
The site you're using present garbage metrics and is in no way an accurate representation of how many are playing a game. Concurrent players and peak players are far better metrics for measuring popularity of a game. Someone having an account and logging in once for 1 minute during a month is statistically insignificant and should be discarded.

Self-reported by Blizzard btw. During their PEAK in Wrath of the Lich King they had 12 million Subscribers. We don't know the official numbers today, but it's safe to say it's far lower. You say that Wow has 125 million subscribers right now? Not sure what planet you'd have to live on to believe that.

PoE usually peaks at around 250k during league start. That's most probably the correct number of players playing since 90% of PoE players are gonna login during leaguestart and play. After that the numbers drop of because people go to sleep or quit the league early.