"Incursion was a successful league."

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Fapmobile wrote:
Thanks for the useless chart.

Only missing the rest of the players.

The rest of the players are a minority.
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MBata wrote:
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suszterpatt wrote:

Yes, unless.

But you didn't even stop to consider the unless, did you?


Unless what?

I think your M.O. of being purposely vague is pretty obvious to anyone.

Evidently not, since people keep missing the mark by a country mile.



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MBata wrote:
Why don't you try to make your point clearly, using structured logic and precise language.

Start with the specific point you are trying to make. Apparently, it has something to do with the success of the league...

Well gee, I'd love to! You only needed to ask. See, now we're starting to have an actual dialogue here, instead of knee-jerk strawman-hunts. Only took 4 pages!


Actually, let me start with what I'm not saying:

- I'm not arguing that Incursion was not, in fact, successful. Aside from being in no position to decide that, it doesn't matter what I think about it, what matters is what GGG think about it. They think Incursion was a success, period.

- I'm not trying to doomsay or predict the game's failure based on that chart. I'm well aware that in the long run, PoE is gaining popularity, and both the league-start peaks and leage-end troughs keep getting higher and higher.

- I'm not asserting that the non-Steam numbers match the Steam numbers exactly. But as I've pointed out before, the Steam numbers are still at least half the total userbase, and there's little reason to think that the numbers are drastically better among non-Steam users.



What I am saying, though, can already be gleaned from the OP. Evidently, GGG can look at ~80% player dropoff after 2 months, and still declare the league a success. What does that tell you?
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suszterpatt wrote:

What I am saying, though, can already be gleaned from the OP. Evidently, GGG can look at ~80% player dropoff after 2 months, and still declare the league a success. What does that tell you?


What that tells me is:
1) Dropoff of players is not the sole metric for success. People will always leave. Its the nature of leagues.
2) Other metrics that GGG use internally are things we don't have access to. Average playtime, time spent in league zones, stand-alone client players etc, volume of support tickets complaining about the league.
3) Despite calling it a success, they acknowledge there are issues with the league, hence the push to december to integrate with Core.
4) I didn't read all 4 pages but the issue people seem to be having (and I agree) is that you're basically looking at it from a singular point of view (dropoff rate) and seem to imply that what GGG said was "Incursion was a success, period" (your quote). When in reality what they've VERY CLEARLY said is basically "Incursion was a success, however we acknowledge there are some issues with it (mentioned in the manifesto as well as the delve trailer itself. Chris publicly acknowledges this in the trailer) and thus we will be taking 3-4 months to address them.

~Myth
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suszterpatt wrote:

What I am saying, though, can already be gleaned from the OP. Evidently, GGG can look at ~80% player dropoff after 2 months, and still declare the league a success. What does that tell you?


That their definition of success is:
a) not dependent on player drop-off rate after 2 months (time based)
b) not dependent on player drop-off rate after any amount of time (player retention based)
c) defined by a a player drop-off rate (for steam users!) of about 80% after 2 months, as shown in your graph
d) independent of player retention

The point that you may be missing is that you have not defined what GGG uses as a quantifiable measure of success. It might be that they measure success in the total revenue of MTX sold, or issuing a minimum number of bug fixes, or increasing net operating gross margin by X%, or by meeting a specific community engagement metric, number of positive reviews, or any of a dozen other ways in which "success" can be measured.

You Ass-ume that the metric GGG uses to define success is "player retention over a specific time interval" - please, support that assumption with evidence; or propose an alternate thesis for what GGG considers "success."

This is not rocket surgery.

P.S. for what it's worth, i personally believe that GGG will think a league is successful if they meet certain specific financial goals. It could be net margin, or gross revenue, or IRR or something else.
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Sorry guys buy burden of proof is not on OP
He already provided valid evidence
To say "maybe billion player is active and never leave in poe launcher" is something you have to prove.
If you can not,all evidence avaible points to the OP's direction.


that is not how this works

that is not how anything works
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With the amount of users on steam it still draws a pretty acurate picture of the entire playerbase


Except the data posted is not the entire playerbase, so that argument is invalid.


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The rest of the players are a minority.


By your misinterpreted representation of how statistics and numbers work, yes.
Divination Card - Emperor's Luck.
Last edited by Isindel on Aug 16, 2018, 1:19:02 AM
HEY LOOK PLAYERS NOT PLAYING OFTEN OVER TIME
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suszterpatt wrote:


What I am saying, though, can already be gleaned from the OP. Evidently, GGG can look at ~80% player dropoff after 2 months, and still declare the league a success. What does that tell you?


Looking at data for past leagues shows that this is the standard life cycle. People play heavily early on. Then, as they reach their own particular league goals, they either play less or stop altogether.
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OxbloodNC wrote:
"
suszterpatt wrote:


What I am saying, though, can already be gleaned from the OP. Evidently, GGG can look at ~80% player dropoff after 2 months, and still declare the league a success. What does that tell you?


Looking at data for past leagues shows that this is the standard life cycle. People play heavily early on. Then, as they reach their own particular league goals, they either play less or stop altogether.


Yup. I, personally, would hate to have stats like that if I were a game dev, but GGG's been running their game in this fashion for something like 2 years now at least, and they're the ones pocketing millions from Tencent, not me, so I think their measure of success is a little more reliable/objective than mine.
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Last edited by adghar on Aug 16, 2018, 12:07:14 PM
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suszterpatt wrote:
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Fapmobile wrote:
Thanks for the useless chart.

Only missing the rest of the players.

The rest of the players are a minority.


Absolutely false.
GGG banning all political discussion shortly after getting acquired by China is a weird coincidence.

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