I think PoE is running out of time. Here's why:

Despite the similarities, I don't think PoE is actually competing with TL2.

Torchlight 2 will probably be more polished than PoE upon release, simply because runic already had all the tech for their game before they started working on it - which means they could just focus on pumping out content. And those guys have been making ARPGs for years (fate, diablo, hellgate, mythos, torchlight).

PoE will surpass it sooner or later though, since it will get ongoing support. TL2 by comparison will just get one or two patches before runic moves on to their next game.
Also TL2 will basically be a single player game, with multiplayer. People will be free to cheat and hack as much as they want - it won't have the secure online environment that PoE has.

TL2's longevity will come from player made mods - PoE's longevity will come from regular updates, the online community, PvP, and the leagues system

So they are entirely different beasts.

TL2 is a mini-game. D3 is the new WoW.

'nuff said.

PoE is free so I plan on playing both.

I'll probably play all 3, but I'm still a bit iffy on D3. The real money purchasing really turned me off. D3 is guaranteed to succeed just because of it's huge kid following and giant glowing shoulderpads.

Torchlight 2 will probably be really popular at first and then die a bit due to not being online. People enjoy trading, chatting and comparing gear and showing off. I really enjoyed Torchlight one for about a month and then got really bored due to having nobody to trade or compare gear with. What's the point of doing anything if nobody is there to notice it?

I think PoE will have a smaller but loyal player base. It will probably also serve as a haven for people who will get pissed at Blizzard for releasing WoW 2 and naming it D3. Hopefully PoE comes out sooner than later.

I'll just come out and say it: I'm here because D3 isn't out yet. I am one of the (I imagine) many who are looking for a suitable replacement until Blizzard releases Diablo.

If I'm right, and there are more out there like me, PoE might be in trouble.

I heard the F2P argument brought up. D3 doesn't have a sub, right? Just the $60 for the game itself? I can see that being a small deterrant for some, but without a subscription fee I don't see that being a deciding factor for many folks.

One more thing:

D3 will be a full priced game, with a pay to win item store.

PoE will be completely free with cosmetic only store.

That in itself is enough differentiation, they're not competing for the same dollars.

Don't underestimate the amount of players PoE will get due to being free.

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Malice wrote:

One more thing:

D3 will be a full priced game, with a pay to win item store.

PoE will be completely free with cosmetic only store.

It's much more like a fully integrated D3 ebay than a pay to win store. Supply, demand, quality and quantity will depend wholly on the players. And with the limited free-to-post options, you can get into it without any actual cash.

Sure, there'll be those that will buy their full gear (once it's found AND people decide to post it), but it probably won't do them much good. In PvP, they'll be matched with people who have good gear AND the experience with their char that comes grinding and playing around with builds. And in PvE, it sounds like Inferno will be (at least for quite some time) difficult enough that you simply can't just faceroll through it on Papa's Visa.

And what is to stop a similar item selling situation in PoE? Nothing I've seen has addressed that issue, really. It will probably be just as possible for someone to buy their PoE gear through a third party site as it is for people to buy gear in D3 and D2.

At least BNET 2 will be a better deterrent for BOTS and Hacks when compared to POE. Yes, both will most likely have them, but POE will have significantly more since their game is free. POE bans a bot/hacker, so what, they will just create another free account. Whereas, BNET2 bans a bot/hacker they're gonna have to shell out another $60 to bot or hack again. GGG just got GGed by BNET2.

Maybe, but who the hell is going to bot or hack in an indie game when there's easy real money to be had in D3?

This is of course speculating that Blizzard actually sends their game out in the next year. Still have yet to release beta.