Launch Date and World of Warcraft
" On the player side what does it even matter? Either it looks bad or it doesnt. Either the league goes over well or it doesnt. I'm sure GGG would like to know why the player count is the way it is generally, but that's on them. Point is I dont care about the "whys" specifically, because like every single discussion amongst the community, it's all speculation and assumptions. Hell I've heard the same people excuse Blight's poor performance due to WoW after the fact, come back now and say WoW doesn't even have crossover players. Well pick a lane my dudes. In the end, the bottom line is either people are playing PoE or they are not. Does it really matter what else they are doing? Maybe to degree. It is far more important imo to understand why they are choosing to do something different in this context compared to previously when they did choose PoE. That's on GGG to look in the mirror and figure out however. Seems obvious to me that GGG has a far greater impact on their player numbers than CW gives credit for. If your product is great, people will choose it. If it's not, well, you get what you get. "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt."
- Abraham Lincoln |
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" And how do you know it's WoW and not 3.19's fault? AN's fault? Removal of league content IIQ? Loot goblin? The Witcher 3: Next gen? Mario Kart 8 Deluxe? There's "proof", there's "indication" and there's a will/bias to explain certain things with certain reasons. " It doesn't. But in a thread about WoW? A little bit, at least on the biased interpretation of numbers side. Bring me some coffee and I'll bring you a smile. Last edited by Phrazz#3529 on Nov 29, 2022, 12:55:33 PM
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" Bias? Wasnt that my point though? Its not bias if someone plays WoW instead PoE. They choose to do that, and imo its reasonable to think other players will do that also. I dont think that's a big leap. Now thinking that just because they did decide to do that, others would also... sure I guess there could be some bias in that logic, but PoE doesnt exist in a bubble either. People will be playing WoW instead. That's a fact. How many? That's not important to the player. The point is that it doesnt really matter what folks are specifically deciding to do instead, its them deciding that PoE ain't it that matters. "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt."
- Abraham Lincoln |
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" Would 3.19 being bad crush the numbers below Expedition levels? I doubt it, especially since GGG is coming with 'we're fixing all the problems' approach, like the AN manifesto. And about other games, well, the only one that makes sense to interfere with the launch numbers is WoW. The others are too small to make a noticeable dent. Yes, I know that the academically clean approach doesn't allow for the discarding of senseless possibilities, but in a real-world application, that is a necessary condition for getting any useful information/results. | |
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Honestly I think the people that still play WoW with the way Blizzard are developing things nowadays are mostly not interested in PoE. If you can stick with that game for 17 years you barely play other games anyways.
Personally I don't think GGG should cater towards other games' deadlines alltogether, not even in the ARPG genre cause they are the biggest by far. |
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" This is actually very interesting based on the things that CW has said. The revenue spikes that GGG sees each league are hyper-focused into a short burst of time around that specific launch each quarter. Thus if something "competitive" came out in their exact launch window, the finical risk involved is a very real possibility. It's not actually important what those players are actually doing besides spending in PoE. (it could be anything) Why I find this situation increasingly interesting is because D4 is coming very soon. VERY SOON. If the rumors are true about April 2023 launch and varying betas by the Holiday Season in December, then the next couple of league start times are going to have to be very strategic simply because of how the game is monetized. D4 will absolutely not have this particular problem as you pay up front for access essentially like any other pay to play game. "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt."
- Abraham Lincoln |
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" Functioning under the assumption that the bulk of any one game's playerbase are also furiously fervent redditors, that is interesting. But I think you and I both know it's far more likely that furiously fervent redditors are just apt to spread their butter across a whole loaf of whatever bread they can. And I should note that one of the most prolific posters to the Path of Exile forums hasn't played the game in years but for one 3 day bender that he actually does regret. :P (and he's hardly the only ghost here now and wtf am I referring to myself in third person?) But I won't deny it is an interesting set of subdata. Doesn't invalidate my argument or put much of a dent in my belief, but hey, more info is always good provided we can process it into understanding. ^_^ If I like a game, it'll either be amazing later or awful forever. There's no in-between. I am Path of Exile's biggest whale. Period. Last edited by Foreverhappychan#4626 on Nov 29, 2022, 9:19:59 PM
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" D4 will be the real syphon imo. After playing the CB, I know for a fact that D4 will DEFINITELY take a good portion of the casual player base for about 6-mo at a minimum. For people that want to kill stuff and get loot, D4 will definitely hit the itch. The hardcore POE base will stay here. The question has always been how many real HARDCORE fans will play POE no matter what at league start? I think this is why so many players think 3.2 is REALLY the make or break league for GGG. GGG's development cycle is in a trough at a very pivotal time in the ARPG genre (in terms of real competitors). Personally I'm super excited that GGG has some competition. I think everyone can agree that all of the players as a whole are the real "winners" no matter what lol. I also think GGG does some of their best work under this kind of pressure. GGG is a leader in the industry because they break glass ceilings in terms of games as a service, gameplay and content for ARPG players. ... but hey I'm a glass-half-full type of guy lol. Last edited by Prizy#1622 on Nov 29, 2022, 9:37:52 PM
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" Do you have an example of this? I cannot remember pressure anywhere near this degree or a solid competitor in 10 years. There have been a few games that caused dents, but nothing really major. D4 is another ballgame entirely. I think it's very possible they could see losses in the 50-66% range sustained. Also keep in mind the D4 live service looks to be quarterly seasons as well, matching directly with PoE. I don't think this is a 6-month, 12-month situation at all. I do agree with the notion that competition is good for the gamers, I'm just not 100% sure this version of PoE actually stands a chance. (unless D4 is extremely underwhelming, which maybe, I legitimately have no idea. I've heard nothing bad at all to this point though) The commentary on 3.20 being make or break is probably a bridge too far in my view. However saying 2023 is functionally critical leading up to 4.0 launching in 2024 (presumably), is pretty fair. Now for the hyperbolic prediction! I don't think Tencent would do anything significant before PoE 4.0 comes out due to the investment already made, but if 2023 is a hot mess, and the PoE 4.0 scope is anything like what we have seen so far, we might be seeing a more Chinese Version of PoE in a couple years... "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt."
- Abraham Lincoln |
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" Sorry... maybe not exactly THIS kind of pressure... but under pressure in general. I know there were some times in the past where I felt in the dumpster about constant nerfs, but ggg always has so far been able to bring it back. Yeah the seasons rollout for D4 will be big, although I personally don't think that will be ready at release (just my opinion). As far as your hyperbolic prediction... :) tbh as I get older, i probably wouldn't mind a pet that picks up my scrolls for me lol. |
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