The One Reason, I think PoE 2 may do better then Diablo 4.

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Gopstop22 wrote:

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fredjesus1 wrote:

since bligh this game has been declining

im always curious where you people pull these statistics from? becuz if you are looking at numbers on steam you can clearly see they arent declining

You know where it is coming from: Confirmation Bias.

They look at anything abnormal and quickly pounce on it as the end of days. They ignore the stats that don't support their position, and promote the stats that do. Longer term trends are more important on this subject. Individual league ups/downs are not terribly valuable. It's like thinking climate change isn't a thing because it's cold today.

It's kind of a strange phenomenon to me, the people who spend their time here cheering for the game to fail and people to leave. I'm going to put that particular issue on insecurity. In order to feel valid in their choice, they need others to affirm it. We all have our insecurities, so I guess it's not shocking to see it come up here as it does.

To each their own.

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Nubatron wrote:

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Gopstop22 wrote:

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fredjesus1 wrote:

since bligh this game has been declining

im always curious where you people pull these statistics from? becuz if you are looking at numbers on steam you can clearly see they arent declining

You know where it is coming from: Confirmation Bias.

They look at anything abnormal and quickly pounce on it as the end of days. They ignore the stats that don't support their position, and promote the stats that do. Longer term trends are more important on this subject. Individual league ups/downs are not terribly valuable. It's like thinking climate change isn't a thing because it's cold today.

It's kind of strange phenomenon to me, the people who spend their time here cheering for the game to fail and people to leave. I'm going to put that particular issue on insecurity. In order to feel valid in their choice, they need others to affirm it. We all have our insecurities, so I guess it's not shocking to see it come up here as it does.

To each their own.

Well there are two things at play. One is that humans are social creatures. Of course we turn to each other for many things, including validation or confirmation. Like you might turn to your buddy and go "man is it cold in here or is it just me?" "Yea it is!"

Nobody wants to feel alone, or feel like they are an outcast. That's so simple anyone can understand it.

The second part is more about finding data that might support the case you are making, instead of making a conclusion on the data presented. Statistics can be quite misleading depending on context.

So for example, in the case of PoE, one could look at the numbers, since lets say Expedition, and make some interesting conclusions. One would be that they have increasing numbers, and some records of total players. This is great right? Twitch Marketing, and Media blitz is working! Well you could also look and see that they are losing a record number of players, percentage wise, in terms of retention in shorter times from league launches.

So what's the takeaway then? You have a record amount of people playing, or that you are retaining a record low of those players at an ever increasing pace each league?

All that said, I think its unfair to label anyone critical of the game as wanting it to to fail. They want it to be better (subjective), so they can enjoy it. Everyone wants that in fact.

*of course there are internet trolls, but those are everywhere. I'm talking about people that voice their concerns in good faith.

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DarthSki44 wrote:

Well there are two things at play. One is that humans are social creatures. Of course we turn to each other for many things, including validation or confirmation. Like you might turn to your buddy and go "man is it cold in here or is it just me?" "Yea it is!"

Nobody wants to feel alone, or feel like they are an outcast. That's so simple anyone can understand it.

The second part is more about finding data that might support the case you are making, instead of making a conclusion on the data presented. Statistics can be quite misleading depending on context.

So for example, in the case of PoE, one could look at the numbers, since lets say Expedition, and make some interesting conclusions. One would be that they have increasing numbers, and some records of total players. This is great right? Twitch Marketing, and Media blitz is working! Well you could also look and see that they are losing a record number of players, percentage wise, in terms of retention in shorter times from league launches.

So what's the takeaway then? You have a record amount of people playing, or that you are retaining a record low of those players at an ever increasing pace each league?

All that said, I think its unfair to label anyone critical of the game as wanting it to to fail. They want it to be better (subjective), so they can enjoy it. Everyone wants that in fact.

*of course there are internet trolls, but those are everywhere. I'm talking about people that voice their concerns in good faith.

I certainly agree with your points; it's honestly a different way of saying the same thing. That's probably a less charged way to say it, so I appreciate that.

I want to focus in on this point specifically:

"

So what's the takeaway then? You have a record amount of people playing, or that you are retaining a record low of those players at an ever increasing pace each league?

The takeaway is both. And there is a lot of data missing to truly make any well founded conclusions for even that sampling of data. A few things that GGG can see that we can't is who is being retained longer into the league? Is it the same people, or does it vary league to league? That piece of data alone would be important to know because it leads to the potential conclusion that some league mechanics or changes sit differently with people, and each league will retain players differently.

Furthermore, is it the same players coming back each league to set those record numbers, or is it new blood entirely? That would be good to know because if it is the same people, then you're at least doing something right to keep them coming back to take a sip. This is also important in my opinion because I think the retention at the beginning of the league has a direct relationship to revenue for GGG. I personally only care about that because I just want the servers to stay online.

If it is new blood, and they're not holding on to them, then that is cause for concern and would lead them to probably examining how newbie friendly this game is not -- it really isn't at all friendly so that wouldn't be shocking. That would also lead to steep drop offs of retention after league start.

And even further analysis can be taken from standalone client vs. steam data. I personally experience my standalone client friends as staying in leagues longer, whereas my steam friends are gone quickly. I've personally attributed that to people on Steam want to play a lot of games, so they don't stick with anything long. That's absolutely how it is in my small world of gaming friends. Anecdotal evidence has little value, so heavily qualified as my opinion and provides little value to really discuss.

Anyway, you see my point. The limited set of data available to us leads to extremely immature conclusions and most of the time it's just people spouting the numbers to support their position. It's not really valuable though from my optic. It's just fodder for screaming at each other.

^

I think you are mostly right, that we are in agreement here, and maybe just debating some semantics.

I do think we should consider, that while we dont have a full picture data wise, GGG does. This is where the results get very confusing, and by "results" I mean the design decisions and marketing.

There is this duality. GGG wants more players, generally speaking, but is also aware, and prefers, to design the game around a smaller niche base. So inevitably they have created both community conflict, and design headaches. 3rd party tools and PoE support sites highlight this gap.

Again, generally speaking, and I've been here more than 10 years, I think that GGG would be far better off, design wise, focusing on the more "elite" and "non-casual" gamers. Just say as much, and weed out the players you dont really want. Right now they keep enticing players they don't actually design for, and then those players (including new ones), dont respond well in the community.

Tbh, I'm one of those. I'm very much casual due to obligations and activities outside of gaming. I very much enjoyed PoE when I had the time, but now it's far too much of an investment, and I personally feel like GGG has this sort of contempt and resentment for average players (the streamer queue and "bags of money" was really the tipping point for me)

But also GGG answers to Tencent now, and has grown their staff. I don't think they are willing to downsize or intentionally reduce player numbers. In short, this problem is going to continue to increase based on the developmental direction I've seen.

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DarthSki44 wrote:

^

I think you are mostly right, that we are in agreement here, and maybe just debating some semantics.

I do think we should consider, that while we dont have a full picture data wise, GGG does. This is where the results get very confusing, and by "results" I mean the design decisions and marketing.

There is this duality. GGG wants more players, generally speaking, but is also aware, and prefers, to design the game around a smaller niche base. So inevitably they have created both community conflict, and design headaches. 3rd party tools and PoE support sites highlight this gap.

Again, generally speaking, and I've been here more than 10 years, I think that GGG would be far better off, design wise, focusing on the more "elite" and "non-casual" gamers. Just say as much, and weed out the players you dont really want. Right now they keep enticing players they don't actually design for, and then those players (including new ones), dont respond well in the community.

Tbh, I'm one of those. I'm very much casual due to obligations and activities outside of gaming. I very much enjoyed PoE when I had the time, but now it's far too much of an investment, and I personally feel like GGG has this sort of contempt and resentment for average players (the streamer queue and "bags of money" was really the tipping point for me)

But also GGG answers to Tencent now, and has grown their staff. I don't think they are willing to downsize or intentionally reduce player numbers. In short, this problem is going to continue to increase based on the developmental direction I've seen.

I do believe the game offers playability to casual players, once they get beyond the gigantic learning curve which is a huge, certainly player limiting, wall to get over.

When I first played the game, I did not expect to beat all the things, and things like Shavronne's and Kaom's were nice to look at on the wiki but I was never going to achieve them. This is back in the 1.x days. My first real character (2nd actual character) got to level 95 in Domination. At the time, it felt like an accomplishment and it was harder than getting to level 100 now. I wanted to get to level 100 then, but I managed my expectations appropriately and really enjoyed the game in spite of not being able to achieve 100.

I think that might be the real downside to this rollercoaster ride of balancing. I think people want to feel improvement over time in terms of their accomplishments and achievements. It probably feels bad to be able to do something in league x and then fail to accomplish the same in league y because they made the game dramatically harder.

If they were to do anything of value in terms of balance, it would be to make sure that each league at least maintained a similar level of difficulty so that players could feel improvement from their time invested relative to last league.

They could do as you said and come out with a hard line that they target elite players only, but I honestly believe that isn't the complete truth. I truly don't. As an example, I'm somewhat good at this game through brute force persistence; there is nothing special about me. I certainly would never call myself elite. If people watched me play, they would laugh their ass off. I'm half tempted to show one of my Uber Shaper fights. It took me 20-30 minutes to kill Uber Shaper as an example. No joke. My point being that the game does enable less than good players to excel. And even players that don't want to do Uber level fights, there is a ton of things to do before that.

It's all about managing expectations. GGG needs to do that. They need to say that there are some things in the game that casual players simply won't achieve. But there are a lot of things to do outside of the extreme limits of the game. And then they need to make uniques better. A lot better. Uniques are how less skill players make progress. They're precanned and don't require a lot of knowledge or skill.

I know people are looking at the 100 unique buffs as a meme too, but I honestly think that's a good way to enable low/mid tier players to advance.

I look forward to being wrong though and called out on it as they add mods like:

"+2 weapon range while using Cleave" to each unique :)

^

That's the thing though. Some of us that have been here a long time are a bit desensitized.

Even if a casual / average player just kept a character in Standard, the massive balance changes are too much. If you logged in after a number months or somehting, it's likely your character had a respec, or didn't work like it used to. Hell its possible that it won't even be playable, or maybe it would require you reading massive patch notes and manifesto's to understand what the fuck happened.

Honestly the pendulum swings that some plugged in PoE folks think is "refreshing" is outright design hostile to a large number of average players. And new folks, forget it. PoE is ridiculous.

"

DarthSki44 wrote:

^

I think you are mostly right, that we are in agreement here, and maybe just debating some semantics.

I do think we should consider, that while we dont have a full picture data wise, GGG does. This is where the results get very confusing, and by "results" I mean the design decisions and marketing.

There is this duality. GGG wants more players, generally speaking, but is also aware, and prefers, to design the game around a smaller niche base. So inevitably they have created both community conflict, and design headaches. 3rd party tools and PoE support sites highlight this gap.

Again, generally speaking, and I've been here more than 10 years, I think that GGG would be far better off, design wise, focusing on the more "elite" and "non-casual" gamers. Just say as much, and weed out the players you dont really want. Right now they keep enticing players they don't actually design for, and then those players (including new ones), dont respond well in the community.

Tbh, I'm one of those. I'm very much casual due to obligations and activities outside of gaming. I very much enjoyed PoE when I had the time, but now it's far too much of an investment, and I personally feel like GGG has this sort of contempt and resentment for average players (the streamer queue and "bags of money" was really the tipping point for me)

But also GGG answers to Tencent now, and has grown their staff. I don't think they are willing to downsize or intentionally reduce player numbers. In short, this problem is going to continue to increase based on the developmental direction I've seen.

Lol as if building this game for maps is good for player retention. Bet more general player retention quits after Act 10, than they do for the elitist reason of endgame 1 hits. Bet player retention falls short after a few alt re runs of act 10 from lack of immersion with a goal. Rather than just those people who grinded farther to get 1 hit & leave for that reason. I'd say player retention has more to do with mid game than end game.

Basing your profits of a few mtx whales or isolated non fan theory garrison hideouts, isn't as profitable as the 20 million players of mmo'ers who aren't playing something right now, or they are waiting for D4. & D4 is a hybrid design to. Also D4's is going to have a template that's not a mmo, just a regular offline template. So? POE already has WAY more than a template built than D4 has right now. So no reason it isn't able to handle servers with more people per zone. Maybe a older engine, tho not older than Guild Wars 1.

Ye sure a few niche whales, tho at what loss? 20 million mmo players who aren't playing a mmo verses a few niche streamers? So who do they build this game for. Also your paragraphs say 1 thing & then something else. You say they should make the game for elite players & then you say your a casual who doesn't have time to be a elite player.

So you're not gonna play then? That's a loss for you, if they don't build poe for the moderate player.

" new players who don't respond well " maybe the community should stop gatekeeping like niche nerds they are & scaring off all the potential other pc players. Also I'm so done with POE'ers speaking of the ARGP genre as if the MMO or RTS or FPS genre's have everything players want for them to not talk & play those games. Those games aren't to par, so yes mmorpg'ers are going to keep reviewing POE for the next 4 years. They are just gonna talk a lot less about it for their following videos, as poe doesn't offer much for party gameplay. Or other similar requests.

It's like 2 dudes both played diablo 2, yet the single player guy gets to decide how to define a ARPG. Rather than the Battle.net guy. He's the only guy that matters, his words not mine. What about Alllllll the Diablo 2 players WHO WENT ON TO GO PLAY WOW after? & don't have this motto of keeping the teams separate. D4 sure doesn't. Also lack of multiplayer or expansion is half the reason I didn't like D3. The other part is lack of story immersion with their art design, wasn't dark enough. For d3. POE's art is better, tho POE's immersion drops after Act 10. While D3 had zero story to sound to atmosphere immersion.

So over that ARPG's being explained as narrow as a 1 alley path. Lost Ark tanked, I'm not waiting for the equivalent of Lost Ark 2; four years from now. Just since you want to gatekeep POE as a arpg, when it's always been both.

& if it's both, well I'm sure single players have gotten a ton of updates already, so where's the other half? wheres the multiplayer expansion?

"

DarthSki44 wrote:

^

That's the thing though. Some of us that have been here a long time are a bit desensitized.

Even if a casual / average player just kept a character in Standard, the massive balance changes are too much. If you logged in after a number months or somehting, it's likely your character had a respec, or didn't work like it used to. Hell its possible that it won't even be playable, or maybe it would require you reading massive patch notes and manifesto's to understand what the fuck happened.

Honestly the pendulum swings that some plugged in PoE folks think is "refreshing" is outright design hostile to a large number of average players. And new folks, forget it. PoE is ridiculous.

Yeah, gigantic manifestos are not great for the game. Big sweeping changes are not either. I'm good with them focusing each release change on something specific though. Like a melee patch, or a ranged patch, or a self-cast patch, or whatever. Then you can read the outline of changes if you care about the thing being changed this league.

They should have an outliers section (too strong/too weak) each league, but the changes shouldn't be "shot to the head" type changes -- as I failed to predict with Aegis Aurora as an example. It should be marginal changes over time unless something is outright broken (no investment Uber killing level broken) or game breaking (unintended mechanics like item duping). If they didn't buff/nerf enough, then continue the marginal changes until it is right.

Players need to be mature in this space as well though. If they're playing something that is egregious like the Phase Run 100% invisible flaw a few leagues ago, or erasing the game with ease/no investment then they should expect it won't be around next league. GGG tends to get it wrong and nerf things that are collateral, which is why I expected Aegis Aurora to get nerfed even though the obvious problem was Melding of the Flesh. I was shocked that they actual nerfed the root cause and not the collateral on that front.

I won't defend their nerf/buff cycle blindly. They need to do better. I agree with that.

"

DarthSki44 wrote:

My sig has never been more applicable.

Yes, probably a wise choice to remain silent on that one huh. Though I was looking forward to some hilarious replies.

I find it funny how some people equate "financially profitable" with "good".

I don't give a fuck how much money D4 is gonna earn. It's made by a company whose *only* purpose is making money. Emphasis on 'only'.
Just listen to some of their devs in their promotional interviews etc... It's laughable, I'm pretty sure most of them don't play games, and even less play ARPGs.

So obviously D4 is gonna earn a lot of money, since if it wouldn't, then it wouldn't be made at all.
Trust them, they have an army of marketing specialists who can precisely project how much money the game's gonna make.

D4 is still gonna be a shit game, pretty much the same as D3, possibly even worse since they made it clear with DI that they were willing to go to the abysses of ethical standards.