Can Path of Exile compete with Lost Ark and Elden Ring?

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Last Epoch chat is full with many PoE refugees. I don't think LE is going to be just a "small spot in the sun"

Not trolling, genuinely interested in that comment and how you come to your conclusion. If The LE-Chat is full of PoE-Refugees, doesn´t that actually confirm its just something that attracts people that are turned away from PoE and therefore a smaller audience instead of actually generating new people that are interested in the game by itself or what do you mean exactly by that?

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Vennto wrote:

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Last Epoch chat is full with many PoE refugees. I don't think LE is going to be just a "small spot in the sun"

Not trolling, genuinely interested in that comment and how you come to your conclusion. If The LE-Chat is full of PoE-Refugees, doesn´t that actually confirm its just something that attracts people that are turned away from PoE and therefore a smaller audience instead of actually generating new people that are interested in the game by itself or what do you mean exactly by that?

Its still in early access and got much more attention when poe streamers started to play it. I think there are indeed alot of players that have played poe before. Other than that many people probably dont even know it exists. But its growing and showing progress.

PoE is a game played by game hobbiests. So it's only natural that you'll see them playing other games too. Doesn't mean much.

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MECHanokl wrote:

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Foreverhappychan wrote:

To bring this back to the core topic, I don't think a game that is almost entirely exp by mass slaughter is going to lose a lot of its players to a game that is mostly exp by completing scripted tasks.

Different MMOs approach leveling (and its importance) in various ways. In Lost Ark, questline leveling is a miniscule part of your overall playtime (unless you want to make an army of alts). You do get experience by doing quests, however once you hit endgame and the main questline ends, you will mainly gain experience from killings hordes of monsters in special dungeouns, doing boss hunts, 4 man dungeouns and 8 man raids. It's just that the beginning of the game (untill lvl 50) you get exp only from quests, I guess to make your early experience (basically a tutorial) more focused and railroaded, with more freedom opening up later on. The game also has account levels, but that is a different topic.

The point is, LA is a game where you spend a small portion of your time leveling with quests, and the rest of the time leveling and in general upgrading your character by doing combat content, just like in an ARPG.

Thanks for the elaboration.

Something I'd consider pertinent is your qualifier: once you hit endgame.

By extension: once the quests stop.

So endgame is sort of where not only ARPGs and MMOs meet but, I'd argue, it's where most genres meet in that they all become a grind outside of the core game with little to no real purpose other than extending the game's life span beyond the core. GaaS aren't even really sustainable without an endgame, and from memory MMOs were GaaSing it up long before ARPGs got in on the act.

And this is a slight digression but it's another way you can distinguish an ARPG from an MMO if not any other GaaS endgame/postgame: fashion. I don't care how many armour sets GGG release, PoE does not have a fashion endgame. Not the way FFXIV, For Honor, GW2 or Warframe do. And virtually no other ARPG tries to flog visual mtxes the way PoE does so that's that.

Adding this to my former assertion, we have an even clearer distinction. MMOs typically encourage leveling through story and side tasks and then extend their life with raids, events and fashion play. ARPGs level through killing and then...postgame through more killing.

And yet some of you seem to think the former might "compete" with the latter?That someone who can milk thousands of hours out of doing pretty much the same thing is going to be suddenly lured by a game that offers a watered down version of that stuffed with a bunch of wordy words and collecting flowers and running errands? Uhuh. Yep. Okay.

Here's my synopsis as a MMORPG player who also enjoys RPG, and Arena style games, who for 8 years led the second largest guild in the gaming world (2006-2014) outside of WOW, and knowing how over 30 games' agencies reacted to ongoing costs, sales modules, and promotion by both experiencing and talking to their Game Masters;

Speaking soley on Lost Ark;
Lost Ark is basically a Diablo 3 Engine, with POE/Diablo like content, with end game features that are resembling those of DK online (a defunct Korean Crossover which Aeria Games/Gamego pulled after what looked like an outstanding Closed Beta, which Steam then picked up and also failed with), Tera, Archeage, and Final Fantasy XIV, and Black Desert.

In other words, it's trying to cross over from a RPG to an MMORPG in the same game.

You play the game in RPG mode, and play end game in fights with hundreds of other players, fielding an army vs colossal bosses that reach the clouds.

Most of what I will say can generally be backed by Youtuber streamer opinions.

The RPG part of the game contains relatively slow mobs, and relatively slow characters, which feel "heavy." To some POE players, this will appeal, because of how quick POE's movement comes and as a consequence, how proactively designed the enemies are. To me, it's a throwback to unresponsive games designed for people who generally aren't veteran gamers and need to be taught the ropes.


Classes: MOST of LA's skills/classes aren't too different from each other and have overlapping roles. 9 are melee classes that just.... specialize in sweeping aoes. They may come in different sequence, or be a leap while others are a dash, or a stand still sweep.... but the game makes killing all about aoes. I've also been told end game can't be accomplished at all without support healing classes, so be prepared to get destroyed if you aren't a team player but rather a solo edgy individual.


Skills are not as aesthetically pleasing as most POE skills.

P2W: I Can't say much right out of the gate on LA but:
They do have P2W mounts as part of their system (Like Black Desert and Archeage), and they do have weapon enchants. It's in the Plat Starter Pack they are selling.

Cost of Operations: The primary reason a game fails isn't concurrent player base or performance, or even remuneration; Its's the cost of operation.

In this aspect, imo, POE is King. Low Cost overhead. High sales contributions. Older Game Engine.

Just from a glance, Lost Ark's design, ability to add new content, to maintain debugging, and sustain sales vs publishing on a global scale is at least 5-6 times as expensive as POE.
Based on the about 20 games I've played within what I believe to be Lost Ark's Budget:
-It will have positive sales lines for about 1 1/2 years, before it starts having to put out novel content beyond the packaging. After that, it will have exponentially diminishing returns, because the global market requires local servers, support, and publishers, who all take their cut of the revenue vs development.
-Its Remuneration from players will diminish as Guild activities take over the end game. They will also begin to juggle buying new MTX vs old owned MTX, because Lost Ark is coming out swinging with very good mounts and Costumes right off the bat. There is no upsell. Players will begin to go back to comparable games they were already used to and share their time.
-Player counts will decrease as they get to end game (which afaik has no whole ladder resets, so once you're there, you're there) and get locked out of final content.

-After Lost Ark's honeymoon, I expect a sell of game to a publisher.

95% of all F2P sales to a publisher result in a destability in the game, a changed sales model, less expansions, and less player feedback. As a result, the game becomes Legacy.

Now..... some may say that Smilegate is flush with money; I'll counter with this: Most Developers will part with a game when profit is only 10% of Revenue, because the risk associated with operating further may result in negative gains, and the future value of the game isn't as profitable as selling it for a present value to a Publisher, whose only goal is to continue hosting or take over hosting already existing data... which generates far higher profits than development does. Rent seekers are powerful entities.

I predict about a 4 year decent outlook on Lost Ark, and a 6 Year Sale. Tencent might even eventually become the buyer.

The target audience for POE and LA hardly overlap.

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Reinhart wrote:

The target audience for POE and LA hardly overlap.

They overlap a lot, outside of the end game raids.

The grind is very same target.

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rekikyo wrote:

Lost Ark is basically a Diablo 3 Engine, with POE/Diablo like content,

It's made on Unreal 3 engine, unlike diablo 3, not even sure what was this point about. Visually, and even stylistically games look rather differently, and while LA is a high fantasy korean game, diablo 3 looks way more cartoonish. Also, it only has some overlaps in content. Diablo 3 and Poe dont have group activities, group events, long questing (some people like it), unlockables/collectible hunts, mounts, 4 man dungeouns or 8 man raids. In short, they dont have much of "like content".

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rekikyo wrote:

fielding an army vs colossal bosses that reach the clouds.

??? The biggest group content I have seen was a 30 man instance. Some group events can have more, but thouse are usually non-combat events or minigames. I have not seen any colossal bosses reaching into the clouds, wouldnt really work in a top-down ARPG.

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rekikyo wrote:

Most of what I will say can generally be backed by Youtuber streamer opinions.

Educated opinions or opinions of people who played story and some dungeouns in beta and then post their first impressions? Even then, none of them could have experienced what you are talking about.

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rekikyo wrote:

LA also embraces the "20 skill bar" system.

No, it doesnt. In fact, the limit on the skill bar is 8 skills + utility items like potions + ultimate (that is on 4 min cooldown unless you build for it). Some classes have swap stances or weapons, they offer more skills, but those are few. Some have transformations with their own skills without selection. But most classes have limitied skills and you indeed need to choose. Moreover, a single class usually has several builds which would utilize different skills or different skill modifiers. I have no idea where did you take this "20 skills" idea from, because it's simply not true.

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rekikyo wrote:

That's what end game LA is: massive aoe wipes where what you personally do makes little difference.

Again, incorrect. There are mechanics that every member must know, otherwise your raid wipes, yes, but a ton more stuff happens that requires personal responsibility whether you are a dps or a support. Outside of mechanics that you must do, you also need to be skilled enough to avoid attacks, read boss patterns, and know your own rotation and when to attack the boss best to maximize damage and not get hit. Endgame raids have a combination of group and individual responsibility. There are even MVP awards at the end of the raid/dungeoun that show who was second and first highest DPS.

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rekikyo wrote:

Classes: MOST of LA's skills/classes aren't too different from each other and have overlapping roles. 9 are melee classes that just.... specialize in sweeping aoes.

Once again, incorrect, but I understand why someone might have this impression. From a first glance, many classes do in fact look very similar, and I was in this mindset as well. Actually playing these classes and getting them to endgame (where their speciality really starts to show), you realize that they do play and feel differently, even if they may look similar on the surface.

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rekikyo wrote:

I've also been told end game can't be accomplished at all without support healing classes, so be prepared to get destroyed if you aren't a team player but rather a solo edgy individual.
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You loaded two pieces of information into one sentence. The first point about endgame being impossible without supports is wrong. In fact, experienced players go full dps since it's faster. Less experienced players who get hit often or don't deal damage optimally are the ones who benefit from supports the most. So in a random pub, you will feel much better with a support, since the average player in all games is not particularly skilled. However, in organized groups, you could easily go without them. Your second point I dont really get - if by edgy individual you mean someone who refuses to do raid mechanics, then you are just a bad player and a griefer. If by edgy you mean someone who plays dps, then you will feel totally fine.

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rekikyo wrote:

-Its Remuneration from players will diminish as Guild activities take over the end game.

Not really sure what you mean by guild activities taking over the end game. Guilds are beneficial to be a part of, but you don't have to be a part of one, even for the hardest dungeouns you can assemble a raid team without being in a guild.

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rekikyo wrote:

-After Lost Ark's honeymoon, I expect a sell of game to a publisher.

??? Lost ark is a 3 years old game, and in 2021 it was consistently top 2 or top 3 played GAME (not MMO) in Korea, with the first place being LoL. They could keep operating in Korea and making a ton of money, even if it crashes and burns in the West (which is unlikely). The owner of the company (it is privately owned) even stated that having 30k concurrent players (which is really not a lot for a F2P game) 2 months after launch would mean a succesful launch for the game in the west. The owner is millioner for whom LA is a passion project and not even the biggest money making asset, so the chance of him selling it to a publisher is very low.

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raics wrote:

For me, PoE does an awesome job of competing with things I'm not interested in.

hey, you're stealing my words :)

games are so different from a design and monetarisation point of view. and i couldn't play a game that doesn't have immersion killing health bars.

Poe doesn't need to complete with Lost Ark, they are totally different games, your also assuming people will just abandon a game they have nearly a decade invested into.

While both Elden Ring, Lost Ark and any other game you can think of due for release soon may well be fresh and offer something new. Neither game will have the content to compete with an established game like PoE, then we have PoE2 which takes things to an entirely new level by bringing everything up to date while still retaining all the previous content from PoE1.

It's would be like comparing new world today with wow and its 9 expansions (that remain relevant the whole time) and expecting there to be similar amounts of content.