POE is ACTUALLY dying not the drama queen kind, but the actual kind... From Developer Hubris

"

Phrazz wrote:

Doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that PoE is on a downwards trend. But no one knows if this trend will keep pointing downwards, and no one knows how long it will last. So PoE dying? Based on numbers from 2-3 leagues? Sceptical.

I was pretty anoyed when 3.15 hit but tbh I changed my mind and now I think the game is in a way better state than it was before. You actually have to work now to get endgame done instead of just sleeping through it on a tabula and random rares you found on the ground.

Defenses finaly matter, something every other ARPG, well any rpg ever had is now finaly part of PoE.

For someone like me that likes to make builds it feels way better because making a well rounded character instead of just focusing on movespeed and dps is now really important. In that sense the game is way more fun.

Yes 300 stacks scourge will one shot almost any build beside some very extrem tanky builds like aegis guardian or similar stuff but for the rest of the game defenses are good now.

Most people that complain about it refuse to addapt or dont know how to make a build. If you put the characters of those that constantly complain in PoB you see that most of them run around with 5k hp and zero or one single defense layer and nothing else.

I think the game is in a much healthier state right now than it was before.

The game actually rewards making a good well rounded build. The game rewards game knowledge way more and the game has finaly end game content you have to push through instead of just casually walk through it.

"

Zerber wrote:

I think the game is in a much healthier state right now than it was before.

The game actually rewards making a good well rounded build. The game rewards game knowledge way more and the game has finaly end game content you have to push through instead of just casually walk through it.

I agree.

Overall, I think the game is in a much better state, but I think they have some work to do regarding build diversity. I don't really mind that a handful of skills are worse than others, but when whole archetypes keep getting left behind or overnerfed, I think they should react faster.

"

Snorkle_uk wrote:

...ramblings

First off, those were not my graphs. I simply linked a Reddit thread that had very useful data compiled in one place. Point is retention has been quite bad. Sure player count is up generally speaking (dumping hundreds of thousands into sponsored streams seemed to have helped), but they are playing less and less. To be honest I wouldn't take it as a positive that many more players are interested in PoE, but leave right away because it isn't fun.

Secondly, Chris is the one that indicated a revenue dip, not me. I didn't pull a revenue struggle out of mid air, Chris spoke it into existence, live on a stream. 30+% is millions of dollars...

Lastly, I think that me wanting the game to be doing poorly is nuanced. I DO want GGG to get the message that, imo, the game isn't going in the right direction. The only thing that seems to matter to them is the revenue, so there we go. I don't know how GGG feels about it overall. Perhaps less revenue and players is actually what they want to get back to whatever elite/hardcore game they had in mind years ago.

It's clear we see the game very differently right now. That's ok. Let's see how things play out.

"

Phrazz wrote:

"

Zerber wrote:

I think the game is in a much healthier state right now than it was before.

The game actually rewards making a good well rounded build. The game rewards game knowledge way more and the game has finaly end game content you have to push through instead of just casually walk through it.

I agree.

Overall, I think the game is in a much better state, but I think they have some work to do regarding build diversity. I don't really mind that a handful of skills are worse than others, but when whole archetypes keep getting left behind or overnerfed, I think they should react faster.

I dont know what GGG wants to do but I assume its easier to make content harder and than gradually adjusting skill gems than predicting how much you need to alter a gem to make it work in the new enviroment.

They need to narrow the gap between "good" and "overpowered". The game is impossible to design content that everyone can enjoy. So they have to cater to one playstyle or another. That breeds ill will. Their business model is based on good will.

Making Chase Items that are so powerful they trivialize the game is not a recipe for success.

Balancing the game around players that have the Chase Items just punishes the plebs who are not at that level.

In my opinion, it is more of a problem with loot generation in the game in all the items that are generated.

If Magic items that only have two attributes allowed a wider range of stats (ie better) it forces players to make a choice about using them. For example two stats, say Intelligence and Hit Points, on a Magic item could have ranges that allowed you to maximize those two stats.

Rares, having more attributes, would have a reduced range of it's stats but makes up for that by having more.

Uniques could have class defining abilities but follow the same model, more stats smaller range.

Smarter Loot would help too. Theme for the item should be rolled first, then attributes for that theme would roll next. Attributes would be Bell Curved appropriately making really great items hard to come by.


PoE has created a really weird model where having 2 or 3 of the chase items allows you to ROFLStomp the game.

Having an incremental model where improvements get smaller and smaller as you climb the curve would make things easier to balance.

The original Guild Wars had a cool item concept where weapons and armour had max stats that you couldn't exceed. So the main interest came from looking for unusual skins or effects (which has turned into MTX in the PoE model), but because of the max stats the Devs didn't have to worry about balance as much.

"

Zerber wrote:

I dont know what GGG wants to do but I assume its easier to make content harder and than gradually adjusting skill gems than predicting how much you need to alter a gem to make it work in the new enviroment.

Yeah, as I said; I have no problems with some skills being weaker than others. Everyone that has heard Chris talking in interviews, knows that some gems will always be weak. It's just their way of making some choices more meaningful.

The biggest problem, is when complete archetypes are more or less dead based on their power. You didn't see many self casting characters before the support gem nerfs, let alone after the nerfs.

I'm not saying diversity is a game breaking problem, because it's not. There's still hundred of builds that can take you to Sirus 8. And I'm not going to hyperbole this into the sky. As I said; I think the game is in a good place. But there is some work to be done regarding diversity.

"

Snorkle_uk wrote:

"

DarthSki44 wrote:

No reason to be so disingenuous. Chris's himself indicated a 30+% revenue dip for 3.15, and was certainly one of the main reasons for his media blitz.

Also if you want to look at retention numbers, which is most likely tied to their monetization algorithms (the more you play, the more likely you will spend $$$), they are trending in a concerning direction.

https://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/qyn6tv/scourge_1_month_statistics/

Fiscal 2021 is going to be much worse than 2020 for GGG, how much we won't really know until around March 2022.

im not being disingenuous. i quoted a post and specifically talked to the points it mentioned, which you are not doing here.

much worse? from what data are you drawing that? the chart you just posted shows 2 leagues that blow this current one out of the water from start to finish, they are both from this year. so why does that chart say this year will be much worse?


youre posting data showing this year has stronger numbers than last year, and trying to claim is shows the opposite.

the financials might be worse this year, we dont know if player counts match $$$, theyve employed way more people this year to work on poe2 so their expenses are bigger which means less profit from the money they do get. but you are making a statement, "Fiscal 2021 is going to be much worse than 2020 for GGG" based on player count numbers, and those numbers show 2021 outperforming 2020.


even if 2020 had more players stats, which it doesnt as youve shown with your graphs, and that did = more money. how is this year compared to 2019? its far better, and in 2019 poe was the most successful arpg out there. its way better than 2018, a year in which poe was the best arpg out there and so successful it was bought by tencent for over 100 million. more successful than 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013. if you look at those charts on steam, or steamdb, every year performs better than the last, and the peaks on 3 of the 4 leagues this year outperform last year, which outperforms the year before, and so on all the way.

i know you want so badly for the game to not be doing well, because you think that will validate your personal feelings. but the data shows last league being bad, and by bad we mean it looks like an average league from 2019, or a really amazing league from the 6 years before that. thats it, and trying to make more of it than that is actually being disingenuous. for the majority of this games life it was performing worse than expedition league and the game is still here, it was a success during those years.

You were responding to my post where you chose to critique the conclusion rather than the reasoning.

Whilst there are areas of disagreement, which is fine, it is a fact that in GGG's opinion 3.15 was a bad league. Player retention was down and spending was down 30%. This was stated by Chris Wilson.

3.16 has done nothing to reverse this trend.

The analysis by Aldora on the previous page is clear and provides solid data.

I think you are misunderstanding the reason for people posting, and I can only speak for myself here. I do not want POE to fail, I enjoy POE. I want it to succeed, more people to play and retention to be higher, as I play in a trade league. However, the current direction does not appear to support that. I cannot contact GGG directly so I post on the forum in the small hope that it may make a difference. Not out of spite or anger or a desire to argue but only out of hope.

"

Headsoup wrote:

"

rekikyo wrote:

snip

Bloody hell, if that was a sales pitch for crafting in the game I'd wince a little, laugh and move on. The hoops that have to be jumped through in PoE just to get gear is nuts. And you're only talking about the 'easy' way.

Crafting for build enabling/strong items should not be hidden recipes and RNG on RNG, the player should have a clear view of the path to the item and investment required, which they then grind towards (i.e. collect x mats, y of item base type blah, z modifier currency, etc). You can make it really expensive, but at least it's clear.

That fact that the only people here explaining how 'easy' it is to get top gear and work the system are experienced longer term players says a lot. I shouldn't need 100's-1000's of hours of gametime and using 3rd party sites just to be able to understand what the goals are in the first place, let alone get to them efficiently (which yes experience will improve).

I'm sorry but I've been around the online gamine community since ..... 1997?

I have never.... once.... seen a successful game just give you gear. EVER.

Diablo II: Gated behind impossible rune drop rates and a limited ability to upgrade which took thousands of hours of farming just to have a chance to get them (there was a reason Diablo II became the world's first target for third party site sales who ran bots to farm, or injected item code).

Shaiya: Level 5 Jewels were 20% link, and only one instance shared among an entire server, with spawn rates of some 15 minutes. In other words.. basic gemming was gated and controlled by top guilds. Then, Level 6 became in instance drop, but the instance was hard enough that anyone new to it without serious partying, and a tank, would just die farming. 1% Link chance, with risk of breaking gear. Bosses took 20 minutes just for a chance at a drop.
Elementals: 1 Boss per 12 hours controlled by guilds.

Enchanting Gear: Pure P2W purchased from item mall, with chance to break gear,
6slot gear: Purely gated behind end game bosses that required anywhere from 10-40 people to work in unison to kill. (I excelled at running these guild groups, and maintained a guild of up to 780 guild members for over 6 years, that always placed #2 or #1)

Perfect World/Forsaken World: Enchanting gear limited in F2P, pure trade farming, questing that went nowhere, and gear, really wasn't a large factor outside of imprints and enchants. Instance farming, and limited difficulty.

(Game now defunct).

Final Fantasy games: Pretty much walkthrough game once and get bored. Play predictable and eventually dries up.

Guild Wars : Extremely limited skills build, controlling 3 NPCS to do your work for you, and gear played almost no role in playing (low stats gain). Most of the entire game's challenge was collecting all the random unique skills from hunting wild bosses.

Scarlet Blade: Enchant P2W based game. You're not a viable player here without doing so.

Black Desert Online: Lacks a real end to game; quests and collecting obnoxiously long, crafting longer, and has NPC crafting features you have to support and manage. Improving Gear/Skill levels is EXTREMELY time consuming.

Archeage: Pure P2W; no end to game. Content coveted and controlled by 1 guild and there's literally no way to beat them, unless they outright want to lose. Every guild vs Guild activity is designed around giving the defendees MAJOR advantages in environmental defense. Vast majority of players end up farming more than playing anything else (actual farming; paying taxes for those farms).

DK Online: was fun initially, but enchanting was far too easy, to the point where the game never got past Beta, and was cancelled. RIP cute cat girls.

Tera: Immersive, LONG game that never navigated you through a single storyline, but let you choose whether you got off the path of not. Extremely difficult game to play alone, gated because runes constantly breaking, content needing daily kills, teams for dungeons, etc.

Enchanting was P2W to some extend, but what was more annoying was how gated the resources were. You could farm 1600 hours and not produce significant wealth, and gear was mostly gained via "Blacksmithing." Getting the highest tiers or crafting could take you 3-4 years) You could expect to play 5-6 years before being a competent guild eligible player, until Reaper was added.

-------------------------------------------------

I haven't played a lot of newer MMORPGs but almost all of them mimic POE or Diablo or some mutant love child. There haven't been newly communicated methodologies in years for gear vs content. But, all have something in common: They don't hand you gear that easy, and ones that do, lose players because of it.

"

Phrazz wrote:

"

Zerber wrote:

I dont know what GGG wants to do but I assume its easier to make content harder and than gradually adjusting skill gems than predicting how much you need to alter a gem to make it work in the new enviroment.

Yeah, as I said; I have no problems with some skills being weaker than others. Everyone that has heard Chris talking in interviews, knows that some gems will always be weak. It's just their way of making some choices more meaningful.

The biggest problem, is when complete archetypes are more or less dead based on their power. You didn't see many self casting characters before the support gem nerfs, let alone after the nerfs.

I'm not saying diversity is a game breaking problem, because it's not. There's still hundred of builds that can take you to Sirus 8. And I'm not going to hyperbole this into the sky. As I said; I think the game is in a good place. But there is some work to be done regarding diversity.

Self cast was extremely prominent in POE's first 5 years. In the age of shotgunning it was BIS build archetype.

It's still got its place, because of the power of Spell Echo.

The difference is: Game has become more geared toward non projectiles, and personal damaging has become a global liability rather than a situational one.
(Reflect was changing from being a rare modifier to a map modifier, encouraging the age of trappers/miners/totemers).

We generally chase the builds that can be used in all circumstances and don't require swap outs. Pure Phys builds for example. Minion builds. Single ele builds pushed by EE (until now). Skills that don't kill YOU via reflect, like Totems/Traps/Mines/Brands.