Donald Trump and US politics

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Xavderion wrote:

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

2. When that survey participants for their party affiliation, Democrats outnumbered Republicans at a 3:2 ratio (32% to 24%).

Basically this. Republicans are always undersampled in polls. In the elections the ratio was 37D:33R (12% difference). Here it's a 33% difference.

Well, there are straight-up more Democrats than Republicans, by about a 10:9 ratio as I said earlier. 37:33 isn't really a skewed sample — maybe a percentage point or two, but it's a survey so some leeway is expected.

3:2 is bonkers though.

This was a couple days ago but I missed it. Here's James Clapper confirming there is no evidence of any collusion between Russia and Trump. For those people who like facts, you know.

https://youtu.be/D9fwpfIKKZk?t=2m58s

I do want to take time to put my criticisms in the proper context.

Let's see how some of those survey questions change if we assume 30% Republican, 30% Democrat, 40% independent. They included component scores for each category for each question, so this is possible.

5. Is your opinion of Jeff Sessions favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Survey original vs 30-30-40
Favorable: 23 vs 25
Unfavorable: 43 vs 41
Don't know enough: 33 vs 33

33. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - the nation's policy toward Russia?

Survey original vs 30-30-40
Approve: 32 vs 34
Disapprove: 54 vs 52
Don't know: 14 vs 14

36. As president, do you think Donald Trump should remove regulations on businesses and
corporations?

Yes: 45 vs 47
No: 49 vs 47
Don't know: 6 vs 6


So while there is bias in that survey, I don't mean to say it's totally invalid, and the bias changes results only in a small number of questions (such as deregulating businesses). In most cases, it's simply a +2%/-2% bias.

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DalaiLama wrote:

Hmm, the skepticism of the new health care plan seems unfounded.

It's actually the World's Greatest Health Care Plan - even says so in the title:
https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/1275

LOL, I know, right? Kinda like the "Patriot Act", anyone opposed to it is not a patriot, and is anti-American. One could easily get enough information about how stupid the politicians think the American people are just by how they name these bills.

I like this Time cover.

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SarahAustin wrote:

Because he is destroying america?

That's only something SJW clowns and democrats believe, but in reality THEY are the ones destroying the country.

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

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SarahAustin wrote:

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Budget_player_cadet wrote:

Latest polling from Qunnipiac University is rather interesting.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2437

Turns out that most voters are actually against almost all of Trump's agenda. Fancy that.

Trump supporters claim all polls are wrong...

Not all. But let's consider a few things about that one...

1. That survey was conducted via random phone dialing March 2-6 — that is, partially on weekdays last week. The documentation does not indicate times, but I would suspect during normal business hours.

2. When that survey participants for their party affiliation, Democrats outnumbered Republicans at a 3:2 ratio (32% to 24%).

3. It is not likely that recent changes have been so drastic that the real ratio between Dems and Reps is 3:2; more sophisticated polling puts the two pretty even, perhaps a slight (10:9) Democrat advantage. Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states

4. Generally speaking, having a job has a statistical correlation with voting Republican. Source: ijr.com/2014/08/163622-connection-political-parties-unemployment-look-graph-judge/

So in this case, I think the very survey methodology is biased. You can't just call random numbers during weekday business hours and expect proportional numbers of Republicans to respond — they're at work and can't answer the phone.

Good critique, which I should have spotted. Reading through the methodology:

"This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted to recent Census data using a sample balancing procedure to match the demographic makeup of the population by region, gender, age, education and race. Margins of sampling error for this survey are not adjusted for design effect."

It is a little disappointing they didn't include party affiliation therein.

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Xavderion wrote:

I like this Time cover.

Spoiler

https://twitter.com/AdamSerwer/status/839820496095043586

He is talking about this:

https://twitter.com/sethdmichaels/status/839816405818179585

Honestly, I don't know what this cover is talking about, what Trump did do that could be considered an act of "War on Washington"?

I know he made lobbying easier, even tho he promised to "drain the swamp".

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soneka101 wrote:

I know he made lobbying easier, even tho he promised to "drain the swamp".

Are these separate from the lobbying bans he put in place?