Pointless argument about chance and randomness

If things could only get better, than that wouldn't be gambling now would it.

Considering you keep talking about jeweler orbs and the color of sockets, which doesn't change the color, I'm not too sure you know what you're talking about.

If everyone could go to a casino and know without doubt that they couldn't end up worse off than when they went in, why isn't everyone gambling 24/7 and how do casinos stay open?

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SL4Y3R wrote:

If things could only get better, than that wouldn't be gambling now would it.

Considering you keep talking about jeweler orbs and the color of sockets, which doesn't change the color, I'm not too sure you know what you're talking about.

They don't "always" get better. Please listen. Things could simply "stay the same".

What's wrong with the idea of a failed craft but the state of the item remains constant?

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sage2050 wrote:

If everyone could go to a casino and know without doubt that they couldn't end up worse off than when they went in, why isn't everyone gambling 24/7 and how do casinos stay open?

I don't think you understand what I was saying the entire time. I said you can lose the betting currency (which is exactly that), however the item shouldn't deteriorate.

You should in fact lose something, however, this game takes TWO things from me rather than the norm which is ONE thing (typically the currency).

I know you are "technically" wagering your currency and at the same time your item, but that sure feels like getting kicked in the balls rather than facing the loss of a single orb.

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sage2050 wrote:

Uncertain outcome is the operative phrase. Do you think people go to the casino and consistently walk out richer than when they went in?

I don't want that and nobody in this thread does. The priority concern (not easily found I suppose in the OP, but it's there) is the fact that the item can get much much worse before it gets better. Is it worth the gamble? Sure... if you have a plentiful amount of XX orbs.

neither should my bankroll

The way I see it:

The orb acts like a token to play the slots with. If I roll a 7 7 7, then lucky me, but if I get cherry melon bar, then I lose the token and the game is over unless I spend another token at a chance to play again.

The game then decides that on a loss the player will lose X sockets, links, etc. Why? The chance to get a 5L or 6L or the color I want, etc, etc is quite high as is AND could be quite higher if need be.

The fact remains though that with a high chance to lose and losing more than your orbs is a huge turnoff. I like gambling, but the way it is handled just seems a little illogical.

I have a higher probability with my orbs/currency to get a better item if I simply mooch off some dude trading his high quality rares away.

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Entertain this:

What if we took your logic and applied it to other orbs like GCP, Exalts, Glassblowers, etc.

If they were random too and had no choice but to accept the outcome, how would you feel about such a change?

Everyone here has it wrong. You aren't supposed to take your totally kickass item and try to make it more kickass. That would be shooting yourself in the foot.

What is intended is that you leave your kickass item alone, find a new item of the type you want, and use your currency on that to try and get an upgrade.

This leads to a much more rewarding experience with crafting. It's more exciting to suddenly turn a crap item into a godly upgrade than it is to incrementally upgrade your existing items.

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mibuwolf wrote:

They don't "always" get better. Please listen. Things could simply "stay the same".

What's wrong with the idea of a failed craft but the state of the item remains constant?

What's wrong is that...this. is. not. a. gamble.

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mibuwolf wrote:

I don't think you understand what I was saying the entire time. I said you can lose the betting currency (which is exactly that), however the item shouldn't deteriorate.

This is also not gambling.

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mibuwolf wrote:

You should in fact lose something, however, this game takes TWO things from me rather than the norm which is ONE thing (typically the currency).

Casinos take your time AND your money... here the fusing/jeweling attempts take your currency and alter your item.

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mibuwolf wrote:

I know you are "technically" wagering your currency and at the same time your item, but that sure feels like getting kicked in the balls rather than facing the loss of a single orb.

This is how gambling works.

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mibuwolf wrote:

The priority concern (not easily found I suppose in the OP, but it's there) is the fact that the item can get much much worse before it gets better. Is it worth the gamble? Sure... if you have a plentiful amount of XX orbs.

This is also how gambling works.


Honestly Slayer and the others have it right. While I've personally RQed out of PoE for gambling away a whole set of Jeweler orbs trying to get myself a nice 4L for my level 40 character, I always come back thinking "It can't be too far off now" and thus I continue.

As RushSecond and the other others said:

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RushSecond wrote:

You aren't supposed to take your totally kickass item and try to make it more kickass. That would be shooting yourself in the foot.

This would be like trying to buy a better car. You don't sell your not-quite-as-good car before you buy the second one, that would be stupid. You only sell it once the "upgrade" transaction is complete.

Gambling isn't a requirement for the system to be fun. There should be gambling, but only gambling?

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ZadkielVenerat wrote:

*snip*

Sure, whatever... but I disagree. I don't agree with how the gambling works. I'm not gonna say I'm not satisfied with the current system, but improvements could/should be made.

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Sickness wrote:

Gambling isn't a requirement for the system to be fun. There should be gambling, but only gambling?

Could you... reword that?

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RushSecond wrote:

Everyone here has it wrong. You aren't supposed to take your totally kickass item and try to make it more kickass. That would be shooting yourself in the foot.

There's a way to gamble incorrectly? ... right.


Side note: I'm gonna go down to the casino and play some penny slot machines. I give the machine a token and it spits out an outcome of win/loss. On the outcome of a loss I lose the token and have the option to try again, and if I win I get a certain value out of it.

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mibuwolf wrote:

Why. I thought that is the point of min/max'ing.

This is just plain common sense. Your best gear is best because it has desirable stats all around. Modifiers, bonuses, ratings, sockets and links .

From a pure practicality standpoint: you have a desirable socket configuration. You could re-roll hoping for something better, but the odds are strongly slanted towards you winding up with something worse.

You reroll it anyway. My "what were you thinking" goes here. Your awesome item gets worse, which it was almost guaranteed to.

Then you spend all your reserve currency trying to get back to where you were to begin with? You might not even get it back, and you could wind up stuck with something worse than you started with.

Rather than just using the system as it is and thinking logically - you want it to behave differently so you can always incrementally improve your stuff. That's not going to happen.