Pointless argument about chance and randomness

"

DashSlash wrote:

My suggestion for Jewlers/fusings/chromatics is to make the new roll optional. Say you have a 5l armor and want to 6l it. Right now, you need to stockpile hundreds of these orbs to have a fairly safe chance of not screwing yourself over. But what if instead you could accept/decline the new roll. The orb would be consumed regardless of your choice, but you wouldn't be shooting yourself in the foot just by trying to improve your gear. It would still take the same number of orbs on average, but the player would have more incentive to use their orbs, even if they just had a few. Thoughts?

"

Deccode wrote:

Great suggestion.

I have one question, what makes you believe that the system is to random?
Right now the chances to get a 6L is not as same as getting 5L 4L 3L 2L or 1L. The system is random when and only when all outcomes have exact same chances.
I didn't experiment much with orbs, but I did use some chaos orbs. And hell they were random as hell. But fusing are not. If you need x amount of fusing orbs, where x is higher then 100, to get a 6L, then I ask you why don't I need the same amount of x fusing orbs to get a 1 link item? The problem here actually is that the system is NOT random.

"

mibuwolf wrote:

"

Deccode wrote:

Great suggestion.

I have one question, what makes you believe that the system is to random?
Right now the chances to get a 6L is not as same as getting 5L 4L 3L 2L or 1L. The system is random when and only when all outcomes have exact same chances.
I didn't experiment much with orbs, but I did use some chaos orbs. And hell they were random as hell. But fusing are not. If you need x amount of fusing orbs, where x is higher then 100, to get a 6L, then I ask you why don't I need the same amount of x fusing orbs to get a 1 link item? The problem here actually is that the system is NOT random.

You can have random probability while still having biased probability mix'd in. In fact, a lot of random probability is biased. There are cases like 6-sided die that is fair, but I'd argue that a good majority of life is biased luck.

"

Deccode wrote:

"

mibuwolf wrote:

"

Deccode wrote:

Great suggestion.

I have one question, what makes you believe that the system is to random?
Right now the chances to get a 6L is not as same as getting 5L 4L 3L 2L or 1L. The system is random when and only when all outcomes have exact same chances.
I didn't experiment much with orbs, but I did use some chaos orbs. And hell they were random as hell. But fusing are not. If you need x amount of fusing orbs, where x is higher then 100, to get a 6L, then I ask you why don't I need the same amount of x fusing orbs to get a 1 link item? The problem here actually is that the system is NOT random.

You can have random probability while still having biased probability mix'd in. In fact, a lot of random probability is biased. There are cases like 6-sided die that is fair, but I'd argue that a good majority of life is biased luck.

"The system is random when and only when all outcomes have exact same chances."

"

mibuwolf wrote:

O....K ?

"

Deccode wrote:

"

mibuwolf wrote:

O....K ?

If you show favor to one side it's not random, at least not random enough to be called random.
Game is favoring less links than more links.

"

Sickness wrote:

"

Deccode wrote:

"

mibuwolf wrote:

O....K ?

If you show favor to one side it's not random, at least not random enough to be called random.
Game is favoring less links than more links.

It's still random.

"

Deccode wrote:

"

mibuwolf wrote:

O....K ?

If you show favor to one side it's not random, at least not random enough to be called random.
Game is favoring less links than more links.

"

Worldbreaker wrote:

The game needs to work this way so there is a good sink for orbs. If you did it in any easier way the drops would need to be reduced a ton and vendor recipes removed. You simply don't arrive a merciless farm for a day and deserve a 6L.

After 1000's of orbs you can finally say "I did it!, I am awesome!" it is a much better feeling accomplishing something very difficult with the odds against you rather than having even odds the whole time to at least upgrade your gear.

"

mibuwolf wrote:

"

Deccode wrote:

"

mibuwolf wrote:

O....K ?

If you show favor to one side it's not random, at least not random enough to be called random.
Game is favoring less links than more links.

A random variable or stochastic variable is a variable whose value is subject to variations due to chance (i.e. randomness, in a mathematical sense). As opposed to other mathematical variables, a random variable conceptually does not have a single, fixed value (even if unknown); rather, it can take on a set of possible different values, each with an associated probability.

It's what I was taught a few years back and as far I know it is still considered "random". Random can be fair or biased.

Also:

https://www.google.com/search?q=biased+random+number&rlz=1C1GPCK_enUS411US411&oq=biased+random+number&aqs=chrome.0.57j60j62l2.250&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

This makes me think it is random enough. Random is a lot of the time equal, but also can contain biased variables.