A Message to Everyone

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Moosifer wrote:

@tinko92 - I'm not making numbers up. I said I had over 1k maps logged, did you think I was just making shit up?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ApWoM6k_tNETdG5aejZVS0hNR1VOQS1XXzVreGVlSnc#gid=0

Feel free to figure shit out if you'd like with those stats. Without buying 77/78s it's going to be a little while before I can get a couple hundred logged for reliable data. But I'm hypothesising that if you were to cycle 75-78, you should be fine. Sustaining just one level is impossible but doing multiple levels isn't and will lead to continual growth.

edit: and just like you don't know what it takes to be a runner, you have no idea what it takes to play odds. You keep looking at gambling like there isn't winning strategy to it. Like I've already said, if there wasn't how could people make a living off it? Poker and blackjack have a lot of luck involved and you're always at a disadvantage, yet it's possible to be a consistent winner through good play and proper bankroll management.

I'm actually doing the same thing but logging in items/currency drops from the map, what I used to craft from the mod, any dangerous mods on the map, the IIQ on the map itself and what map and what level did they drop from that map and so on. It also tracks my wealth I gained over time using a graph and automatically deducts map cost from the total wealth gained at the end of the map.

Unfortunately, tinko, this is the way it has to be done. I'd like to say the game feels smooth and responsive to play, but it doesn't.
So, clunkiness and always-online factor make it impossible to gate content behind skill.
Very open skill and item system makes it impossible to gate content behind build.
You can't gate the content behind grouping because the game supports solo play.
Trading makes it impossible to gate it behind items.
So the only thing left is to gate it behind RNG.

That gambling comparison is very apt, moose, it's pretty much spot-on. From your table we can see the chance to win or break even (get a same level or higher map) is below 50%, so to push it over to your side you need to do some of these:
way of the llama - maintain a large fallback pool to cushion unlucky streaks
way of the nyan cat - farm heavily and invest currency to buy maps
way of the sloth - make a boring, OP build and roll very hard mods to skew chance in your favor (also needs a bit currency investment)

The first one, unfortunately, stops working on higher tiers because chance to not lose drops too low. The third one stops working a bit later but it's also unsustainable. The second one is omnipotent, but not really attractive. Now, as I said above, it's necessary, yes, but it still stinks that only the first one lets you play whatever char you like, and that might be the chief complaint here.

Actually, the chief complaint in general might be the game forces you through just one too many hoop to stay at endgame, you don't really play the way you want but the way you have to, some are fine with that, some aren't.

Are you jddogg by any chance? I've been stealing data from his (your) spreadsheet since it was posted to reddit, about 350ish of those are his, 300 are from a few other redditors and a friend. Hopefully my friends will come through with some.

If you aren't jddogg, mind sending me your data so I can add it to mine? I'm just trying to find out the general drop rate of maps. I've been seeing dimishing returns don't start kicking in until about 76s, and generally while you do have a negative return on maps at or above level, you're finding almost 2 maps every map so if you run them correctly (basically run more than 1 level of maps at the same time) you can keep forward progress.

I just get bored beyond 90. Playing on my laptop I always end up dying. When it takes all night to get 10-25% of a level (each level that number getting lower) 1-2 deaths really puts a damper on going higher. Trying to figure out a new build I might enjoy as much as my current...or just rerolling this one to have another high level to with a one off respec come 1.1.0.

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Moosifer wrote:

with a one off respec come 1.1.0.

Was this confidential alpha info? :)

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Moosifer wrote:

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Xarog wrote:

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Moosifer wrote:

edit: and just like you don't know what it takes to be a runner, you have no idea what it takes to play odds. You keep looking at gambling like there isn't winning strategy to it. Like I've already said, if there wasn't how could people make a living off it? Poker and blackjack have a lot of luck involved and you're always at a disadvantage, yet it's possible to be a consistent winner through good play and proper bankroll management.

That's a terrible argument. Poker and Blackjack are both about taking calculated risks and knowing when to bet and when to fold. There's absolutely NO correlation between that and any of the RNG you find in PoE.

PoE gambling is like a slot machine. How many people make a living playing slot machines?

With relation to bankroll management it's the same damn thing. If you play above your limits your risk of ruin are great. If you play in a way where you don't lose much if you get a bad string of luck, then you can continue to play. The reason people don't play this model is because it's not as exciting as playing higher limits. What's more fun, grinding 100-200 70s or playing a 76, hoping to get lucky and hit a 78? One makes it so you'll never have to do another sub 69, the other makes it so you might be stuck doing only sub 69s.

The mechanics are different but the theories stand.

You're assuming that successfully clearing maps will yield a statistically positive result. Nothing I've seen personally or read on the forums confirms that assumption.

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raics wrote:

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Moosifer wrote:

with a one off respec come 1.1.0.

Was this confidential alpha info? :)

No, I can't remember where Chris said it, either reddit or in a post here, but he said they will most likely have a one off respec. I think they are going to try and get away from forced respecs after the rage that followed into release. Although, it is pretty funny to see the price of regrets skyrocket after everyone fucked up their builds.

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Xarog wrote:

You're assuming that successfully clearing maps will yield a statistically positive result. Nothing I've seen personally or read on the forums confirms that assumption.

No, no I'm not. In poker or blackjack and maps, you are working at a constant loss (assuming you only consider maps relative to the level you are/want to play). Poker there's the rake, regardless of how well you play, you can't beat it. In blackjack I want to say the house has an 18% advantage? Don't quote me on that, I was never much of a blackjack player.

Poker a good player is winning 1 big blind/hour, great is winning 3-5 bb/hr. Everyone has a warped impression of this because they watch poker on tv and they only show the action. They don't show that most of it is stealing blinds and folding. You might only see one big hand on the table once an hour, if that. If it's all pros maybe even less, unless they are very aggressive players.

But the big thing is bankroll management. Which is basically taking that concept of X bb/hr compared to your bankroll. The general rule of thumb is you want 100 times the buy in (5/10 game you buy in for 1000, you want 10k to play this limit). This way you can handle the swings, because you might win 2-5k, you might lose 2-5k, even playing perfectly. At lower limits, where you can replace your full bankroll easily it doesn't matter.

To bring this all around, when playing sub 70s, take your shots. It doesn't matter, it's very easy to rebuild from this point. Once you start playing 70s and above, if you do it before you have enough padding to your map pool, you risk losing it all. The higher you go, the less you want to move down. Out of boredom I'll take a shot or two at higher maps but generally I'm not moving up a level until I get 20-30 built (sometimes more depending on my drop luck that week).

It doesn't marry over perfectly, because there's more control in poker (not really in blackjack, there's just higher % moves, would be more similar to playing higher IIQ maps on average, but again, I know more about poker so I'm sticking to that) and you can work out specific odds on the fly. While maps you are always playing the average.

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Moosifer wrote:

Are you jddogg by any chance? I've been stealing data from his (your) spreadsheet since it was posted to reddit, about 350ish of those are his, 300 are from a few other redditors and a friend. Hopefully my friends will come through with some.

If you aren't jddogg, mind sending me your data so I can add it to mine? I'm just trying to find out the general drop rate of maps. I've been seeing dimishing returns don't start kicking in until about 76s, and generally while you do have a negative return on maps at or above level, you're finding almost 2 maps every map so if you run them correctly (basically run more than 1 level of maps at the same time) you can keep forward progress.

I just get bored beyond 90. Playing on my laptop I always end up dying. When it takes all night to get 10-25% of a level (each level that number getting lower) 1-2 deaths really puts a damper on going higher. Trying to figure out a new build I might enjoy as much as my current...or just rerolling this one to have another high level to with a one off respec come 1.1.0.

https://docs.google.com/a/buccaneer.atlantic.edu/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtTssvEmrvh4dG5PLVhOajJVZ3RyYXdWa2NjZ1dTeHc&usp=drive_web#gid=0
If anyone wondering what it is this is mine from fresh data of this week, it 2nd sheet is to update currency values to see your total wealth and 2nd chart is that if you sold any items directly from map itself. Can be easily modified to see your wealth in today market value or for more detail. Please send me any improvements you think can help for my chart so we can log map data.

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Moosifer wrote:

While maps you are always playing the average.

Thanks for the big straw man, I found it an interesting read. The part I quoted, however, is the part where you admit that you have no control real control over map drops and that mapping and maintaining a map pool is ultimately the same as gambling at a slot machine.


And even if one were to assume that the way you manage your map pool is guaranteed to result in no loss of available maps, I find it quite unreasonable to gate mapping content behind a system where every player is expected to maintain a 20-30 map surplus just so that they stand a reasonable chance of breaking even.

No, with poker you never have 100% until it doesn't matter, and even then you might not be sure you have it, they could have the rarer hand that wins. What I mean by you can adjust is each card coming you know how much you can risk and over the long term playing those odds you'll win out. Mapping this doesn't change, it's a constant. According to the data I linked, you're getting about 2 maps every map ran and about 50% of those will be at level or above, 60-70% will be between -2 and +2 meaning if you play in that range you're taking a loss very similar to that in poker.

My comparisons aren't really to playing poker and running maps. It's how you manage your bankroll. You're ignoring the meat of my post for minor details. If you maintain your map pool correctly you can sustain maps fairly easily.

edit: went too quick forgot to address your 2nd paragraph. That's just your opinion. My opinion is I like this system because it adds a layer of risk and unknown. Do you build up a large pool and play it safe or do you risk it all? This is why people enjoy gambling, intermediate reinforcement. Sometimes you're rewarded, sometimes you aren't, but you're always chasing that big win. What is better than playing that low level map then getting a sudden string of +2s from every map afterwards?

The reason people buck against this system is they are trained by other games. They all allow you to reach the end one way or another. It's all catered to the lowest common denominator, make sure the playing experience is easy for everyone. Other games are more like a steady paying job, play x hours, get y reward. POE is more like being a professional gambler. Your ups are overwhelming and your downs are spirit crushing. Once you adjust, it's a much more enjoyable gameplay experience because you never know what you're actually going to get. While in other games, you know if you do quest X, you're getting that item you've always wanted. POE, the hardest boss you've ever face might give you all blues. While the easiest one ever might drop a kaoms (well...maybe not a kaoms, but something very valuable).