Why Witch loot drops suffer so badly - the stats:

LP, good point! Auditors run 100 samples for a population of thousands. In the case of POE, the population (ie, number of non-neutral drops), is in the millions...

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LunacyPolish wrote:

And for whatever this is worth, real auditors often achieve results within a meaningful confidence interval for a population consisting of many thousands of entries with sample sizes under 100.

I absolutely cannot and will not say that is a valid comparison however it should give one pause to consider the test performed may be more likely to be valid than one might think.

What it is, is a damn good anecdote. Given we don't have access to the actual loot drop code that is as good as we are her going to have.

First off, nice read. I appreciate the thought that has gone into this thread.

Secondly, typically when you disagree with a position, sample size, or method, you present what you deem to be a better alternative. That involves actual work, and people hate work, so I understand why people prefer to just say "too small of sample size." Disagreeing with the OP is great and all, but you should really present data of your own if you feel he is completely off base.

Thirdly, I may get involved in getting more numbers for this type of analysis. My primary issue with the data presented is that it only shows a very small level range. While it may be very real that Int gear has a bias against it in this level range, I'd be curious to see what the data shows for other level ranges.

Example:
At level 28, the Mage's Vestment becomes drop-able. I wonder if the results would show a bias in FAVOR of Int, since there's also a level 25 Int chest - Silken Garb. Being so close in level, they probably would both have a pretty good chance of dropping.

The truth is, your sample size is probably just fine for the level range and section of the game you are in. But I'd like to see numbers (and I am planning on getting some) in other areas that I suspect might be more likely to bias towards Int gear.

Perhaps we can build the ultimate bias guide, showing which level ranges and areas favor which gear types.

Again, thanks for the fun and informative read.

One poster at the beginning requested that you do some similar checking in zones of other levels. That, Cronk, I think is the real reason you are getting fewer drops for "witch gear". Let's look at the Armor charts for a second.

You were farming level 21 zones. That means the monster level is 21, except for Magic packs that are level 22, and Rare monsters that are level 23. These numbers are also the itemlevels of the gear that the monsters drop, which means that the highest tiered gear that a monster of that level can drop must have a level requirement equal to or lower than the monster level. Therefore, the normal ilvl gear is going to be 21, with occasional drops of 22 and 23. Taking a few snippets out of the Armor charts:

Body Armor:

War Plate (Str) 21
Infantry Brigandine (Str/Dex) 21
Chainmail Doublet (Str/Int) 21
Oiled Coat (Dex/Int) 22

Boots:

Deerskin Boots (Dex) 22
Silk Slippers (Int) 22
Plated Greaves (Str) 23

Gloves:

Deerskin Gloves (Dex) 21
Bronze Gauntlets (Str) 23

Helms:

Leather Hood (Dex) 20
Ringmail Coif (Str/Int) 22
Ribbed Helmet (Str/Dex) 23

Shields:

Alloyed Spike Shield (Dex/Int) 20
Reinforced Kite Shield (Str/Int) 20
Studded Round Shield (Str/Dex) 20
Tarnished Spirit Shield (Int) 23
Hammered Buckler (Dex) 23

Those are only the armor types that are level 20 - 23, i.e. the highest tier equipment that the monsters will drop. Because players would otherwise never see gear of the appropriate tier, RNG has to be biased toward the upper tiers of drops respective of monster level. So, if you look in this data, you will see that the upper tiers of drops for the monsters in this area have very little in the way of pure-Int gear to roll (only Silk Slippers and Tarnish Spirit Shields, but both of those will only drop from Magic and Rare monsters, which are a small number of the actual monsters in the area).

There is a decent amount of hybrid gear in this range, and most of it is actually level 20 and 21, so the drop bias for this area is more likely to lean toward hybrid gear, which is supported by the results you had, except that you got an exceptionable amount of Dex gear as well. I wonder how much of that Dex gear was Deerskin Boots/Gloves and Leather Hoods.

Now, after looking at the Armor Charts, I noticed that Int gear tends to come later than other types of gear for its tier (except 1st tier hybrid gear comes after the 1st tier pure gear). So, your argument does carry some merit, but not for the reason you are suggesting. No the game does not have any drop bias against different types of gear, or any drop bias against it is not supported by your argument. The game does have a level-bias against pure Int-gear users, however. That is clearly shown in the Item Data. What is the reason for that? I cannot say. But that is the true reason why your numbers were skewed against "Witch gear".

EDIT: Additionally, you will notice that Wands (the only "pure-Int" weapon), also have a "level-gap" here, in that the previous tier of wands, Quartz Wand, is level 18, and the next tier, Spiraled Wand, is level 24. Daggers, the other "normal" Witch weapon, do not, however, as Boot Knives are a level 20 piece of gear.

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Cronk wrote:

Last two posts, yes, I have stated in the thread (and intimated in the OP) that gear is also level-dependent.

You could isolate specific screens in the game which favour Witch RNG. It's a big hunting process mind you, it's not intuitive and it's not a 'great' help. It's a get-round.

Thanks for the excellent informative posts, but if you're addressing me, please make sure you've read all my posts before 'telling' me what my problem 'might' be. lol



:)

Well, at the very least, I had read the entire thread before posting (and I assume that ggnorekthx had as well). We both came to a similar conclusion. Along with the sample-size complaints earlier, these comments are legitimate variables that your extremely narrow data does not account for. Bold claims like your title need to be substantiated with facts that are all-inclusive rather than specifically from 40 screens within one zone level.

However, what is most annoying about this entire thread, beyond the broad claims based on limited data, is actually the way you, Cronk, address all the people who give you rational posts. You belittle everyone who criticizes you, and you claim that you've already addressed their questions, when, really, you have yet to come to any kind of synthesis with your thesis and the hoard of other antitheses here. I would really like for this thread to have a rational discussion in it, but the one who has been hindering that most, unfortunately, is you.

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derbefrier wrote:

for these numbers to mean anything don't we need to set a baseline of what constitutes "witch gear" being as there are so many possible combinations of gear, passives, gems..etc its hard to really say whats what. Are you considering witch gear something along the lines of "what i need for my spec as a witch" or maybe "anything with intellect spell damage, and ES" If its the former I could possibly sympathize with you especially if your spec is an oddball one that requires harder to find gear but if its the latter all your math is meaningless as I see that kind of gear drop constantly. I mean really your whole post is meaningless because it lacks context.

i see i got ignored so i'll ask again.


What is your definition of "Witch Gear" without it all that math is meaningless.
This is like showing us a poll that all of the USA is for gun control but leaving out the part that says only 400 democrats were sampled and no republicans Its dishonest. Numbers can be easily manipulated especially statistics to get the result you want regardless of what the actual situation is. I dont trust you why should i believe you? You guys are so eager to show your leet math skills you forgetting the basic questions here.

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Shippal wrote:

However, what is most annoying about this entire thread, beyond the broad claims based on limited data, is actually the way you, Cronk, address all the people who give you rational posts. You belittle everyone who criticizes you, and you claim that you've already addressed their questions, when, really, you have yet to come to any kind of synthesis with your thesis and the hoard of other antitheses here. I would really like for this thread to have a rational discussion in it, but the one who has been hindering that most, unfortunately, is you.

There aren't any broad claims, you simply do not know how to comprehend the several factors that are governing the RNG in PoE:

1) RNG, itself. You got this, good for you.

2) The mechanics behind the RNG. Something you don't got, sorry.

3) The distribution of these mechanics that varies per piece of item.

That isn't our fault. Stop trying to be know-it-alls, and leave it to those who actually have said far more than any of you in one post than you in all of your posts combined.

If you can't comprehend that the Witch class has the smallest gear pool, and you wonder why the OP deems the illustrated numbers as enough to call it an assessment, then you guys are fools and need to leave this complicated stuff to the grown ups, and go back to your theoretical lives that involve small talk, ignorance is bliss and blablabla.

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derbefrier wrote:

i see i got ignored so i'll ask again.


What is your definition of "Witch Gear" without it all that math is meaningless.
This is like showing us a poll that all of the USA is for gun control but leaving out the part that says only 400 democrats were sampled and no republicans Its dishonest. Numbers can be easily manipulated especially statistics to get the result you want regardless of what the actual situation is. I dont trust you why should i believe you? You guys are so eager to show your leet math skills you forgetting the basic questions here.

Derp, your analogy is unviable. There is no dishonesty in this. This is purely mechanics that you are too narrow-minded to comprehend, and upon those mechanics is a form of distribution that varies per item piece, which again, you are too much of a pre-developed mental apparatus to grasp. I don't blame you though, society doesn't do a swell job in excerising our mental capacities in this industrial world.

Instead of saying "numbers can be easily manipulated", why don't you see how easy it is to manipulate people's hard work and attempt to pidgeon hole it as much as you can to fit in your own disfigured nonsense into it just like the democrats, the tea partiers, the republicans, the GOP, the lobbyists, and everything else that wants to play with monkey-shit-stained monopoly games in a ring of fire.

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Deceptionist wrote:

There aren't any broad claims, you simply do not know how to comprehend the several factors that are governing the RNG in PoE:

1) RNG, itself. You got this, good for you.

Thanks. You're a dear, Deceptionist.

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2) The mechanics behind the RNG. Something you don't got, sorry.

3) The distribution of these mechanics that varies per piece of item.

Correct. No one does. That's why there's discussion on it. And, yes, "no one" includes all of Cronk, myself, and you. (I suppose that "no one" does not include the GGG staff or God.)

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That isn't our fault. Stop trying to be know-it-alls, and leave it to those who actually have said far more than any of you in one post than you in all of your posts combined.

And who is that? It certainly isn't you, if that's who you're talking about. Seriously, you have done nothing productive on this thread except for defend the OP. I congratulate you for trying to aid his hard work, but you still haven't made any actual attempts at "helping" this thread... so unless you're going to actually say something useful, go away.

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If you can't comprehend that the Witch class has the smallest gear pool, and you wonder why the OP deems the illustrated numbers as enough to call it an assessment, then you guys are fools and need to leave this complicated stuff to the grown ups, and go back to your theoretical lives that involve small talk, ignorance is bliss and blablabla.

Quote me, and say "you guys".... *sigh*... I'm going to let that slide this time because at least this paragraph attempts to have substance rather than the rest of your posts in this thread....

"Lowest gear pool" is just flat out wrong, as, has been stated many times, this is a classless game. The witch's armor pool is the same as every other class's as well, it just happens to come later. That's the inherent problem in the test itself that so many people have been referring to here: limiting the variables so tightly only gives you a concentrated analysis of the game within those variables. It does not allow one to make such broad claims about loot drops... it only says that the witch has poor loot drops in level 21 zones.