I enjoy the trading system, economy is FINE (NOT A TRADER), I enjoy the crafting system

Spoiler
"
ScrotieMcB wrote:
Here's how Path of Exile economy works. Should be obvious, strangely isn't.



The center of the graph shows the average level of gear progression for the league. As a league ages, the average level of gear progression increases in absolute terms, but in relative terms, the overall population still conforms to a bell curve like this one.

Now if you're all the way to the right, you're considered rich. You have extremely good gear, and you're pretty happy with the economy. You don't get gear upgrades from drops or trades very often, but when you do happen to get an upgrade, you have a very good hand-me-down to trade away... and there is a massive horde of people who want it. So you get top dollar in currency, and then you can use your mountains of currency to craft even more ridiculous items, possibly getting an upgrade in the process. When it comes to receiving currency in exchange for gear, you feel amazingly badass. Life is good.

If you're all the way to the left, you're considered poor, but you're still pretty darn happy with the economy. You might not have much, but there is an entire mountain of people trying to sell gear which is considered an upgrade for you. Because there's so damn much of it, it's all considered junk, regardless of how rarely it actually drops in absolute terms. You're able to snag it almost for free, if not literally for free, and you're able to progress very rapidly using trade in this way, quickly catching up with the majority. When it comes to receiving gear in exchange for currency, you feel amazingly badass. Life is good.

The problem is in the middle. Generally speaking, people don't want to buy your items (there are too few buyers), and people don't want to sell you the items you desire (there are too few sellers). There are basically two ways things can work out for people in that group:
1. You can be a renegade. Instead of copying what the popular builds are, you can make your own builds which make a very specific point of using a different set of items than those which are conventionally desired. By seeking different items from everyone else, you can avoid intense competition over limited resources. However, this is very challenging, because it requires a certain degree of true originality, and there are hundreds, if not thousands, of other players who are also out there, trying to think original thoughts and create original builds, and if you're not careful you'll end up competing with them, too. Plus, if you're too creative the people who do find the items you want will just vendor them because they believe they are "worthless." You have a chance, but most likely you will fail and have a bad time. And you will blame it on yourself.
2. You can be a copycat. You can be one of a giant herd who are all trying to trade for the exact same gear as everyone else, by trading away the exact same gear as everyone else. The things this horde wants to buy, the next step on their gear progression, will always be insanely overcosted, due to the intense demand; the stuff this horde wants to sell will always be ridiculously undercosted, due to the intense supply. Without deviating from the apparent path of least resistance, you doom yourself to get lost in a sea of thousands of other players seeking the exact same goals as you. You do not have a chance, you will fail, and you will have a bad time. And you will blame it on others.

The people who QQ about Path of Exile's economy are those in the Middle 2 group who lack self-awareness. Which means: almost all of them.



Sigh...where should I start...

Wealth distribution follow the Pareto distribution, not a normal distribution. This means that you don't have a gaussian density funcion, but a power one. And being rich hardly tends to correlate to genius work, it depends on luck factor and a lot of bullshit. There are people that truly deserve it, but you have to account for corruption, unequal oportunities, etc. It's confusing.

In real world, you need governements and strong citizens to avoid a shitty, dystopic hell hole, and actually have middle class.

You sound like all those neo liberal economists that speak about open economies, the damages of a minimum wage law, etc. talking like if the world had hard coded rules that make the things fair.

This game is a hell hole of exiles, it's worse than real world.

Read this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle

The distribution goes like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_distribution

Spoiler
"
ScrotieMcB wrote:
Well I will say this as a criticism of the Path of Exile economy:

At its core is the difference between currency and gear. By general ARPG design, gear flows down to the poor; by GGG design, Path of Exile's currency flows up to the rich. The thing is that the bell curve would have developed anyway, so it doesn't really make sense for currency to flow to the rich as much as it does; in designing currency the particular way that they did, the extreme poles are favored. The design heavily incentivizes currency to be used exclusively by the very rich, which takes the bell curve economy problem and exacerbates it for those in the middle (while improving things at the poles).

What would do Path of Exile a world of good is some kind of economic mechanic specifically designed to make things better for those in the middle. They are essentially left to fend for themselves, and I didn't lie and give them good news in their prognosis. It's important to understand that the bell curve itself isn't going anywhere; you can't fight that part. But this doesn't mean things need to be mercilessly competitive for those in the middle.

If I had to give a suggestion, it would be to encourage more viable variety in rare affixes for gear, especially chest pieces. As it stands now, with some gear there's very little room for creativity, which makes it extremely hard to be a renegade. I mean, outside of using a unique chest — which is already a risky proposition, because uniques are generally more scarce than rare affixes — how can you be a "renegade" in terms of chest itemization? Your options are pretty much Life and resists, or ES and resists; there's even a keystone to ensure that the two flavors of "Life and resists" are actually boiled down into a single flavor.

So what then? Go for flat regen? Or thorns? Bitch please.

I feel this is also the core error Diablo 3 made, at least pre-expansion. It was all about stacking your primary stat, crit, attack speed, vitality. That was it, for 99% of the builds out there. This meant gear really only came in 3 flavors: Str, Dex, Int. Monks and Demon Hunters used also exactly the same stuff.

How many gear slots in Path of Exile can you think of four or more distinct affix builds for? Because if it's 3 or less, it's the same Str/Dex/Int problem.

But to be honest, I'm not sure exactly what mechanic should be used. I'm just saying that you need tools for those in the middle, with scarcity to both the left and the right, to actually enjoy their economic experiences.

The main thing which makes the economic QQers a foolish minority is not that they're pissed off; if you objectively analyze their situation (easy when I provide a visual aid), they have good cause to be pissed off. It's that their awareness of their own problems is found lacking, and their suggestions for fixes are often laughable.


Well, here you have it. This is one of the reasons there is not a sizable middle class in a game like this. The lack of niches. I've heard about mirroring's services, Atziri's services, 6L lotteries...They are niches that need lots of currency to start. This way you can't have creativity for the "middle class".

Ergo, you don't have a fair game, stupid time sinking, wealth accumulation, trusts, monopolies, scams and RMT are probably the way to go (with differing grades of morallity). You sound like an elitist jerk when you start rambling about people who complain, when there are reasons to complain. You can discuss the validity of the fixes suggested, but please, don't think that most people are in the middle, and don't call people fools when you need college level education to understand what the fuck is going on anyway.

And something else: how you define a middle class in a game like this?
Access to maps under 73?
Do they end normal?
Merciless?
Access to all the maps?
Access to Atziri?

To have a middle class you have to define a quality level for the goods poblation can access, and have a good reason for it. In Africa electricity can be a luxury, but...does that make it right?
Add a Forsaken Masters questline
https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2297942
Last edited by NeroNoah#1010 on Jul 25, 2014, 3:26:02 PM
Hi

visiON123
"
You said crafting, but I'm sure you meant to write gambling instead.

It's a honest typo and I forgive you this time, just be sure not to make that mistake in the future. :)


So true, I quit reading when OP wrote crafting, hahaha. Back in CB this game mentioned crafting since full release they quietly removed that info, crafting has been reworded into MODIFY.

cheers
Conan: Crush your enemies. See them driven before you. Hear the lamentations of their women.
Never dance with the Devil because a dance with the Devil could last you forever...
-I thought what I'd do was,I'd Pretend I was one of those deaf mutes-
Nullus Anxietas:)
@Nero:

The Path of Exile economy has a huge middle something. It's a definitive majority and it's observable. If you observe someone who is truly poor in Standard — for example, they have nothing, because they just started a new character — you see exactly what I described — trade is easy, effective, and fun, and they are able to upgrade rapidly using it. Until, eventually (and rather quickly), they catch up with that middle group, and then hit the same wall of frustration I was talking about earlier... but the older the league is, the more absolute gains can be made this way. So if you have at least three tiers, and the top and bottom ones are doing okay and the middle one is full of angry people, I mean, I don't know what else you'd call it. Maybe you'd prefer "economic tier" to "class," because I'm not trying to call up any sort of allusion to the concepts of middle class or upper class as they exist in real life.

Now if you take that basic structure I just described, and you close off the ability for new players to join the league, you have this rapidly advancing lower, a stagnant middle, and an advancing upper, right? So after a while, those lower advance to middle (like I was describing), and you have a larger stagnant middle vs an advancing upper. Which is actually agreeing with, not disagreeing with, your Pareto distribution. The bell curve is the "before" picture (and better describes temp leagues in their infancy), and the Pareto curve is the "after" picture (and better describes very old leagues like Standard). I'm just trying to explain how it goes from bell curve to Pareto. It makes sense if you think about it.

This middle tier is definitely not definable in terms of any absolute metric, such as any of the options you described. For example, if you're about a day into a brand new temporary league, a pretty good estimation of this middle group actually would be "has completed Normal." However, they aren't going to stay there very long. If you look at Standard now, I'd say "access to non-uber Atziri" easily, perhaps "access to all of the maps." But the point is that the average is always increasing in absolute terms. The defining characteristic of this middle group is not the particular level of content which they've cleared, but instead the competition for the same resources, not having enough buyers and getting low sales, and not getting enough sellers and having to overpay for upgrades. You need to understand it as a PvP concept, because it isn't a PvE concept at all.

Also, scams and RMT are equal-opportunity scumbag moves. You can be rich, poor, or in the middle of the PoE economy and scam people, and you can be at any PoE wealth level after a RMT transaction (you shouldn't assume everyone who does this spends a lot of money on it). It's very misleading to put these things in the same list as "monopolies" because you make these things sound like tools of the rich exclusively. No, they're tools of scumbags of all economic tiers.
When Stephen Colbert was killed by HYDRA's Project Insight in 2014, the comedy world lost a hero. Since his life model decoy isn't up to the task, please do not mistake my performance as political discussion. I'm just doing what Steve would have wanted.
Last edited by ScrotieMcB#2697 on Jul 25, 2014, 10:50:12 PM
"
ScrotieMcB wrote:
Spoiler
Here's how Path of Exile economy works. Should be obvious, strangely isn't.



The center of the graph shows the average level of gear progression for the league. As a league ages, the average level of gear progression increases in absolute terms, but in relative terms, the overall population still conforms to a bell curve like this one.

Now if you're all the way to the right, you're considered rich. You have extremely good gear, and you're pretty happy with the economy. You don't get gear upgrades from drops or trades very often, but when you do happen to get an upgrade, you have a very good hand-me-down to trade away... and there is a massive horde of people who want it. So you get top dollar in currency, and then you can use your mountains of currency to craft even more ridiculous items, possibly getting an upgrade in the process. When it comes to receiving currency in exchange for gear, you feel amazingly badass. Life is good.

If you're all the way to the left, you're considered poor, but you're still pretty darn happy with the economy. You might not have much, but there is an entire mountain of people trying to sell gear which is considered an upgrade for you. Because there's so damn much of it, it's all considered junk, regardless of how rarely it actually drops in absolute terms. You're able to snag it almost for free, if not literally for free, and you're able to progress very rapidly using trade in this way, quickly catching up with the majority. When it comes to receiving gear in exchange for currency, you feel amazingly badass. Life is good.

The problem is in the middle. Generally speaking, people don't want to buy your items (there are too few buyers), and people don't want to sell you the items you desire (there are too few sellers). There are basically two ways things can work out for people in that group:
1. You can be a renegade. Instead of copying what the popular builds are, you can make your own builds which make a very specific point of using a different set of items than those which are conventionally desired. By seeking different items from everyone else, you can avoid intense competition over limited resources. However, this is very challenging, because it requires a certain degree of true originality, and there are hundreds, if not thousands, of other players who are also out there, trying to think original thoughts and create original builds, and if you're not careful you'll end up competing with them, too. Plus, if you're too creative the people who do find the items you want will just vendor them because they believe they are "worthless." You have a chance, but most likely you will fail and have a bad time. And you will blame it on yourself.
2. You can be a copycat. You can be one of a giant herd who are all trying to trade for the exact same gear as everyone else, by trading away the exact same gear as everyone else. The things this horde wants to buy, the next step on their gear progression, will always be insanely overcosted, due to the intense demand; the stuff this horde wants to sell will always be ridiculously undercosted, due to the intense supply. Without deviating from the apparent path of least resistance, you doom yourself to get lost in a sea of thousands of other players seeking the exact same goals as you. You do not have a chance, you will fail, and you will have a bad time. And you will blame it on others.

The people who QQ about Path of Exile's economy are those in the Middle 2 group who lack self-awareness. Which means: almost all of them.


Thats a pretty precise analysis of the current state. I really appreciate u work in writing this down in a understandable way. I often tried to explained that this curve is the epitome of every single aspect of this game, cause its the central "thing" in RNG.

Great Text.

IGN: Surak Methred Wrathclaws Boxender_Gladiator Dunkler_Beschwörer Lady_Discharge
Last edited by keeper190786#4594 on Jul 25, 2014, 11:39:28 PM
Spoiler
"
ScrotieMcB wrote:
@Nero:

The Path of Exile economy has a huge middle something. It's a definitive majority and it's observable. If you observe someone who is truly poor in Standard — for example, they have nothing, because they just started a new character — you see exactly what I described — trade is easy, effective, and fun, and they are able to upgrade rapidly using it. Until, eventually (and rather quickly), they catch up with that middle group, and then hit the same wall of frustration I was talking about earlier... but the older the league is, the more absolute gains can be made this way. So if you have at least three tiers, and the top and bottom ones are doing okay and the middle one is full of angry people, I mean, I don't know what else you'd call it. Maybe you'd prefer "economic tier" to "class," because I'm not trying to call up any sort of allusion to the concepts of middle class or upper class as they exist in real life.

Now if you take that basic structure I just described, and you close off the ability for new players to join the league, you have this rapidly advancing lower, a stagnant middle, and an advancing upper, right? So after a while, those lower advance to middle (like I was describing), and you have a larger stagnant middle vs an advancing upper. Which is actually agreeing with, not disagreeing with, your Pareto distribution. The bell curve is the "before" picture (and better describes temp leagues in their infancy), and the Pareto curve is the "after" picture (and better describes very old leagues like Standard). I'm just trying to explain how it goes from bell curve to Pareto. It makes sense if you think about it.

This middle tier is definitely not definable in terms of any absolute metric, such as any of the options you described. For example, if you're about a day into a brand new temporary league, a pretty good estimation of this middle group actually would be "has completed Normal." However, they aren't going to stay there very long. If you look at Standard now, I'd say "access to non-uber Atziri" easily, perhaps "access to all of the maps." But the point is that the average is always increasing in absolute terms. The defining characteristic of this middle group is not the particular level of content which they've cleared, but instead the competition for the same resources, not having enough buyers and getting low sales, and not getting enough sellers and having to overpay for upgrades. You need to understand it as a PvP concept, because it isn't a PvE concept at all.

Also, scams and RMT are equal-opportunity scumbag moves. You can be rich, poor, or in the middle of the PoE economy and scam people, and you can be at any PoE wealth level after a RMT transaction (you shouldn't assume everyone who does this spends a lot of money on it). It's very misleading to put these things in the same list as "monopolies" because you make these things sound like tools of the rich exclusively. No, they're tools of scumbags of all economic tiers.


Let's remove the RMT from the equation, you still have natural monopolies because of flaws of the system. Not necesarily assholes controlling everything, but players big enough to alter the market (with mirror services, buying items expecting future earnings; moves that ruin the feeling of the game, like you likely read). We should agree is a bad thing (unless it is GGG intention of making us amoral exiles competing for resources, ._.U). It's good for hyper competitive players but bad for the rest of people, and it probably hurts retention in some level. Your post about how to improve the map system was a good criticism to the shape of the economy.

I don't think the average wealth is no where near the median wealth, not even in the temporary leagues, because of how the game taxes currency to progress.

For example, you have the chaos fee for rerolling maps (I'm theorizing, I'm not still there yet). It's a currency sink that it's probably designed to slow down people until they have some level of resources that guarantee they can clear the map. This design is useful because avoids a currency saturation, but it fails because it doesn't scale well with wealth and doesn't contemplate skill too much. I think once you are wealthy enough, you can relax and forget the taxes. In the real world that would be really shitty, and because of that we have things like progressive taxation (in theory).

(to GGG credit: the Atziri system, was a good idea; but they publicized it too much and now it's a goal for a lot of people, so it moved the content expected up)

GGG should define what a middle class/economic tier is in this game and make everyone understand it.
There are people out there that talk about how most players are in level 78 maps, and all I can think is that they are really shortsighted (although, give them more maps, they are going insane, :) ).
And there are people that fall back to level 66 maps. And people who get stuck on merciless or cruel.
The problem is, no one really knows what should be the expected wealth/difficulty level for a given time/skill level. It's poorly signaled. I've read about many people with a constant time investment that cannot reach all the content that seems reasonable (level 78 maps or Atziri), and although I don't know if it's fair, it doesn't feel fair.

What is a yatch in a game like this? What is a car? what is basic needs?
Why does a yatch in a hostile online world exists in first place? Everyone should be struggling at any time, not so much in low levels, but definitively in high levels.

Wealth needs diminishing returns. And we need more economic mobility. Then we'll have normal distributions.

TL;DR: the first who get wealthy enough can fuck the economy in the ass, because of systemic failures. The monopolies are not for every scumbag in this game (nor exclusively for them, actually I think many big traders are fucking smart), just for the first people to end there (JakeAlmighty has said so many times already, you have to push yourself ahead of the pack early).
People need to know their place to feel satisfied.
The idea of a billonaire exile is frankly stupid.
Add a Forsaken Masters questline
https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2297942
Last edited by NeroNoah#1010 on Jul 26, 2014, 12:07:28 AM
And it needs to be a gaussian distribution.

Cause here applies the central limit theorem. Even players actions are rather random, so its only a huge sum of similar distributed random variables... just from the perspective of a mathematician.

IGN: Surak Methred Wrathclaws Boxender_Gladiator Dunkler_Beschwörer Lady_Discharge
"
keeper190786 wrote:
And it needs to be a gaussian distribution.

Cause here applies the central limit theorem. Even players actions are rather random, so its only a huge sum of similar distributed random variables... just from the perspective of a mathematician.



The power law is random too.

You need many hypothesis to have a normal distribution.

The easiest to understand, you need that all the variables have the same distribution. I bet my hat that many, many conditions (ignoring RMT) make it almost impossible.

For example, time sinked (it's ok-ish, or at least for friendly debate), external factors (the lack of transparency about the game, because of the poor documentation, big players outbiding and shaping the market for the rest once they get critical mass of wealth, etc.), and then the pseudo random numbers (a poor implementation for this scale could probably cripple anyone).

No, it's not normal. I'm yet to see economies with normal distributions. Maybe for a short period of time (one week, two weeks?) at the beggining of the leagues before someone gets rich enough.
Add a Forsaken Masters questline
https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2297942
Last edited by NeroNoah#1010 on Jul 25, 2014, 11:55:18 PM
Monopolies in ARPG economies are always temporary. The means of production are always available to others; either it will drop for someone else, or it will be crafted by someone else, eventually. Trust me, with Diablo 3 I tried monopolizing some markets, and I pulled it off on a few occasions, but it never lasts. An ARPG economy is an untamable beast.

Diablo 3 had RMT too. The sanctioned kind. Played that game as well. Still can't be controlled like you think it can.

So take off the tinfoil hat and stop pretending like the behaviors of those above you are deliberate attempts to control you. I mean, they are attempting it, but they are failing to do so — shit's hard. It's a macroeconomic problem beyond anyone's control; you are not dealing with a group of conspirators, but with forces of nature.
"
NeroNoah wrote:
I don't think the average wealth is no where near the median wealth, not even in the temporary leagues, because of how the game taxes currency to progress.
One hour into the life of a brand new temporary league, and it is. From there, it begins deviating; the older it is, the further apart they become. I guess it depends on what you mean by "near" — that is, how sensitive you are to differences.
When Stephen Colbert was killed by HYDRA's Project Insight in 2014, the comedy world lost a hero. Since his life model decoy isn't up to the task, please do not mistake my performance as political discussion. I'm just doing what Steve would have wanted.
Last edited by ScrotieMcB#2697 on Jul 26, 2014, 12:20:57 AM
"
ScrotieMcB wrote:
Monopolies in ARPG economies are always temporary. The means of production are always available to others; either it will drop for someone else, or it will be crafted by someone else, eventually. Trust me, with Diablo 3 I tried monopolizing some markets, and I pulled it off on a few occasions, but it never lasts. An ARPG economy is an untamable beast.

Diablo 3 had RMT too. The sanctioned kind. Played that game as well. Still can't be controlled like you think it can.

So take off the tinfoil hat and stop pretending like the behaviors of those above you are deliberate attempts to control you. I mean, they are attempting it, but they are failing to do so. It's a macroeconomic problem beyond anyone's control; you are not dealing with a group of conspirators, but with forces of nature.


I said natural monopolies. Like the water service, or broad band internet. I don't think people that are at the top are assholes per se (they are not probably).
The problem is the system. In standard, legacy stuff (I'm not against legacy, but you have to admit that there are not tools to progress given a certain point, once you are there, it's not as practical anymore).
In the temporary leagues, the tools are too unrealiable (drops, orbs, etc.). There is no reason to fight the market given a certain time.

"
ScrotieMcB wrote:
One hour into the life of a brand new temporary league, and it is. From there, it begins deviating; the older it is, the further apart they become. I guess it depends on what you mean by "near" — that is, how sensitive you are to differences.


One hour is too little. We need the distribution to be that way as much as possible.

I'm the last person everyone could call a tin foil hat lunatic. Although that's ignoring the lizard people.
Add a Forsaken Masters questline
https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2297942
Last edited by NeroNoah#1010 on Jul 26, 2014, 12:22:19 AM
I am seeing four ways

1)
At the start of each league the greatest business is the 5Ling of things. Ppl just roll them and on average they get on every 10th item a 6L.
(same principle apply to every other gear. the chance for a lucky roll is financed by the selling of mediocre rolls. I guess the variance is higher, so that the initial wealth had to be higher)
This is a viable strategy while the costs between 5Ls / mediocre rolls and the average costs for crafting is large enough.

2) item/currency flipping
As a league grows the demand of some items/currency shifts depending on the overall wealthiness. Prominent example is divine orb, which is just rising from start to the end of a league. Knowing that one can simply invest currency and earn some interest.

3) effective farming/ early adopter
getting fast to ilvl 60+ and farming chaos orbs through the recipe is the best way to build up the initial wealth to do 1) and 2). while farming vaal/piety there isnt much IIR needed for some "nice" drops.

After that initial phase we have a wealthy "upper class" and many mediocre player, who mainly farm orbs to buy the upper class items. Thats why we have a constant flow of currency to the richer guys.


Even in the asymptotic version of every league economy... meaning Standard:

way 1) never stops. its just harder to find the margins and therefore needs enough knowledge about chances.

way 2) is still exploitable through fluctuations and patches

way 3) has created the highly pathologic playstyle of dominus runs


@Nero:
There are several niches yet to be used. I am rather successful with my fusing service for 5L's.

"GGG should define what a middle class/economic tier is in this game."
I cant tell u how badly i disagree! :)

P.S. i hope its understandable. im pretty tired... so #twoff :)



IGN: Surak Methred Wrathclaws Boxender_Gladiator Dunkler_Beschwörer Lady_Discharge

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