My Thoughts about RNG Manipulation.

Sounds plausible to me, discuss more please.

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evilcloud5 wrote:

Sounds plausible to me, discuss more please.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1w2dMekIJLw

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MonstaMunch wrote:

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I_NO wrote:

So uh is he confirmed to be a heretic or what?

No. He's been playing 16 hours a day for a year and in that time there have been at least a handful of notably coincidental loot drops, therefor shape shifting illuminati reptilian conspiracy is proven once and for all.

Ah alright I will not call the council of 3.

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syrioforel wrote:

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MildlyClever wrote:

the coincidences are eerie, in the story posted about uniques dropping right after posting to buy etc.

Just makes me think of http://xkcd.com/882/.

With enough game time spent, coincidences are going to happen. Who doesn't have a weird coincidence story about PoE, or D3 (for those who played it)?

... and how convoluted a drop system would have to be in place for some of these "controlled drops" schemes to be real?

When I found my Soul Taker in Nemesis there were 0 being sold. 6 hours later there were 7. It happens like this with EVERY unique, and it's easy to see in small leagues. Etup talks about this happening constantly. You can cover your eyes and pretend that this isn't happening or try and deflect it with "tin foil" rhetoric, but you're talking about near statistical impossibilities occurring CONSTANTLY.

When Diablo Clones started spawning Blizzard said that they were spawned completely random using a RNG, and that players could have no effect in when and where they spawned. When people first started realizing that they in fact spawned on specific servers, the tin foil hat guys came out with their "nuh uh dude, that's not possible!". Those guys were nowhere to be found once it was common fact, but sometimes they surface in other games decades later, still trying to "be right" about RNG where they have failed in the past.

Say what you will, but companies lied about RNG even before games were based solely on economies. Games like PoE and D3 are basically a lot of economy simulator with a splash of hack n slash, so they have a lot more to gain by having some type of control over their game. You kind of have to look at games like this with an open mind, and not be so naive as to think that a game is centered around YOU. It makes us feel better at night thinking we are all getting a fair shake, and the next GG item is right around the corner, but it is just wishful thinking at it's best.

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nGio wrote:

When I found my Soul Taker in Nemesis there were 0 being sold. 6 hours later there were 7. It happens like this with EVERY unique, and it's easy to see in small leagues. Etup talks about this happening constantly. You can cover your eyes and pretend that this isn't happening or try and deflect it with "tin foil" rhetoric, but you're talking about near statistical impossibilities occurring CONSTANTLY.

When Diablo Clones started spawning Blizzard said that they were spawned completely random using a RNG, and that players could have no effect in when and where they spawned. When people first started realizing that they in fact spawned on specific servers, the tin foil hat guys came out with their "nuh uh dude, that's not possible!". Those guys were nowhere to be found once it was common fact, but sometimes they surface in other games decades later, still trying to "be right" about RNG where they have failed in the past.

Say what you will, but companies lied about RNG even before games were based solely on economies. Games like PoE and D3 are basically a lot of economy simulator with a splash of hack n slash, so they have a lot more to gain by having some type of control over their game. You kind of have to look at games like this with an open mind, and not be so naive as to think that a game is centered around YOU. It makes us feel better at night thinking we are all getting a fair shake, and the next GG item is right around the corner, but it is just wishful thinking at it's best.

Reread the OP. What you're talking about has little if anything to do with it. You're talking about the general system of RNG not being completely R. He's accusing GGG of actively manipulating individual drops, deliberately giving some players an advantage over others on a targeted basis. Those are two completely different things.

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MonstaMunch wrote:

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nGio wrote:

When I found my Soul Taker in Nemesis there were 0 being sold. 6 hours later there were 7. It happens like this with EVERY unique, and it's easy to see in small leagues. Etup talks about this happening constantly. You can cover your eyes and pretend that this isn't happening or try and deflect it with "tin foil" rhetoric, but you're talking about near statistical impossibilities occurring CONSTANTLY.

When Diablo Clones started spawning Blizzard said that they were spawned completely random using a RNG, and that players could have no effect in when and where they spawned. When people first started realizing that they in fact spawned on specific servers, the tin foil hat guys came out with their "nuh uh dude, that's not possible!". Those guys were nowhere to be found once it was common fact, but sometimes they surface in other games decades later, still trying to "be right" about RNG where they have failed in the past.

Say what you will, but companies lied about RNG even before games were based solely on economies. Games like PoE and D3 are basically a lot of economy simulator with a splash of hack n slash, so they have a lot more to gain by having some type of control over their game. You kind of have to look at games like this with an open mind, and not be so naive as to think that a game is centered around YOU. It makes us feel better at night thinking we are all getting a fair shake, and the next GG item is right around the corner, but it is just wishful thinking at it's best.

Reread the OP. What you're talking about has little if anything to do with it. You're talking about the general system of RNG not being completely R. He's accusing GGG of actively manipulating individual drops, deliberately giving some players an advantage over others on a targeted basis. Those are two completely different things.

Well it's a race, a competition. Maybe they want to see some excitement, some lewt and economic tension. They could manipulate them for entertainment purposes only, discuss please.

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MonstaMunch wrote:

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nGio wrote:

When I found my Soul Taker in Nemesis there were 0 being sold. 6 hours later there were 7. It happens like this with EVERY unique, and it's easy to see in small leagues. Etup talks about this happening constantly. You can cover your eyes and pretend that this isn't happening or try and deflect it with "tin foil" rhetoric, but you're talking about near statistical impossibilities occurring CONSTANTLY.

When Diablo Clones started spawning Blizzard said that they were spawned completely random using a RNG, and that players could have no effect in when and where they spawned. When people first started realizing that they in fact spawned on specific servers, the tin foil hat guys came out with their "nuh uh dude, that's not possible!". Those guys were nowhere to be found once it was common fact, but sometimes they surface in other games decades later, still trying to "be right" about RNG where they have failed in the past.

Say what you will, but companies lied about RNG even before games were based solely on economies. Games like PoE and D3 are basically a lot of economy simulator with a splash of hack n slash, so they have a lot more to gain by having some type of control over their game. You kind of have to look at games like this with an open mind, and not be so naive as to think that a game is centered around YOU. It makes us feel better at night thinking we are all getting a fair shake, and the next GG item is right around the corner, but it is just wishful thinking at it's best.

Reread the OP. What you're talking about has little if anything to do with it. You're talking about the general system of RNG not being completely R. He's accusing GGG of actively manipulating individual drops, deliberately giving some players an advantage over others on a targeted basis. Those are two completely different things.

Well my first post in this topic I disagreed with his opinion that PoE is directly targeting individuals with desync and dropping "UNLEASH THE KRAKEN!" whenever they want to kill a random player. I am saying that RNG is a pretty broad term that has in the past shown unknown variables that can take a lot of the "random" out of it. Nowhere did I say that I agree with everything the OP said, and I was just sharing my factual experiences in the supposed RNG that I have seen in years of gaming.

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MonstaMunch wrote:

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nGio wrote:

When I found my Soul Taker in Nemesis there were 0 being sold. 6 hours later there were 7. It happens like this with EVERY unique, and it's easy to see in small leagues. Etup talks about this happening constantly. You can cover your eyes and pretend that this isn't happening or try and deflect it with "tin foil" rhetoric, but you're talking about near statistical impossibilities occurring CONSTANTLY.

When Diablo Clones started spawning Blizzard said that they were spawned completely random using a RNG, and that players could have no effect in when and where they spawned. When people first started realizing that they in fact spawned on specific servers, the tin foil hat guys came out with their "nuh uh dude, that's not possible!". Those guys were nowhere to be found once it was common fact, but sometimes they surface in other games decades later, still trying to "be right" about RNG where they have failed in the past.

Say what you will, but companies lied about RNG even before games were based solely on economies. Games like PoE and D3 are basically a lot of economy simulator with a splash of hack n slash, so they have a lot more to gain by having some type of control over their game. You kind of have to look at games like this with an open mind, and not be so naive as to think that a game is centered around YOU. It makes us feel better at night thinking we are all getting a fair shake, and the next GG item is right around the corner, but it is just wishful thinking at it's best.

Reread the OP. What you're talking about has little if anything to do with it. You're talking about the general system of RNG not being completely R. He's accusing GGG of actively manipulating individual drops, deliberately giving some players an advantage over others on a targeted basis. Those are two completely different things.

Ofc you didnt get the point... but why should you? youre just team trolling me with sheeplike behaviour and little to zero originality in your attempts.

What i said is they did reward the best players with Build-enhacement gear to see what happens, which team used them for best etc...
Then i posted about the FACT that I can NEVER be SURE of .. but the thing stinks a lot.
Then you spend the rest of your time trying to convince yourself that you are smart and funny when you plain suck at this game and try to look for strenght in what the Herd thinks.. cause hey! there will always be other sheep to help you huh?.

Learn to troll.

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nGio wrote:

When I found my Soul Taker in Nemesis there were 0 being sold. 6 hours later there were 7. It happens like this with EVERY unique, and it's easy to see in small leagues. Etup talks about this happening constantly. You can cover your eyes and pretend that this isn't happening or try and deflect it with "tin foil" rhetoric, but you're talking about near statistical impossibilities occurring CONSTANTLY.

When Diablo Clones started spawning Blizzard said that they were spawned completely random using a RNG, and that players could have no effect in when and where they spawned. When people first started realizing that they in fact spawned on specific servers, the tin foil hat guys came out with their "nuh uh dude, that's not possible!". Those guys were nowhere to be found once it was common fact, but sometimes they surface in other games decades later, still trying to "be right" about RNG where they have failed in the past.

Say what you will, but companies lied about RNG even before games were based solely on economies. Games like PoE and D3 are basically a lot of economy simulator with a splash of hack n slash, so they have a lot more to gain by having some type of control over their game. You kind of have to look at games like this with an open mind, and not be so naive as to think that a game is centered around YOU. It makes us feel better at night thinking we are all getting a fair shake, and the next GG item is right around the corner, but it is just wishful thinking at it's best.

Really, if I saw good evidence written down somewhere that something was up, I would believe it. I'm perfectly willing to accept something is wrong if it can be proven with any reasonable degree of certainty.

Look at it from an outsider's perspective: the anecdotes that have been posted saying the RNG is broken aren't exactly compelling.

... but scattered anecdotes don't count. I'm not going to believe something based on "well etup says so" and "it happens all the time." And the truth is that RNG just does produce weird streaks and coincidences. I've had 3 exalts drop and they were all in act1 merciless. The first two of those happened within an hour of each other. Does that mean my RNG is skewed? On its own, no. Does it really look skewed? Hell yeah.

I also had a Lioneye's Glare drop early in my mapping cycle in Anarchy after making a joke to a friend about how it would be funny to get a Lioneye's Glare after getting some accuracy on my gloves.

I also had like 8 cast when damage takens drop before it got nerfed, and none sense. I also had two Berek's pass (or whichever the common one is) rings drop within an hour, and never since.

Things that have to be answered:

* Do these coincidences happen (yes)
* Do they happen with a proper RNG? (also yes; requires a model to compute against though)
* Do they happen more frequently in PoE than with a proper RNG (?)

And, yeah, those are really hard questions to answer properly.

Short story: You very well might be right, but it looks like quackery as it has been stated so far.

I've also managed to convince myself that physical D6's were broken because they'd always roll the same number over and over again (anyone ever play Settlers of Catan?). Except, of course, when I went and tested the things, they rolled typical RNG behavior. The human perception of random does not coincide with actual randomness.

Stupid toy example: Collisions happen a lot more than you might expect. If a D6 100 times, on average the most frequently rolled number will have shown up around 22 times, while the least frequently rolled # shows up only around 12 times (numbers determined by averaging over 100 such trials). That's enough of a discrepancy to perceive that the die might be weighted.

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evilcloud5 wrote:

Well it's a race, a competition. Maybe they want to see some excitement, some lewt and economic tension. They could manipulate them for entertainment purposes only, discuss please.

As Syrio already observed, making a loot system which would allow for loot 'injections' for specific players would be horribly convoluted. There's zero evidence that they're doing this, nothing but speculation.

The RNG giveth and the RNG taketh.