if the 10% for a specific off-color is correct
it's: 0.8*0.8*0.1*0.1*0.1*0.1 * number of permuatations those colors can appear (6! / (2!*2!*2!) = 90)
so it's 1 in 174
I don't believe these odds. If this was the case I'd be getting 4 off colors once every ~35 chromatics.
Since there are five different configurations to get 4 off-color combinations and you are claiming the odds of getting a specific one are 1/174.
That is so far removed from reality that it is almost silly.
1/35 chance to get 4 off-color? ABSURD.
Your math is definitely wrong.
actually the chance to get any 4 off-colors on a pure 6s item would be roughly 1 in 65.
I can assure you that the math is correct, however the base asumtions may be wrong.
It's nothing near clear that the color chances on a pure item are 0.8 0.1 0.1, and there may be a bias in the random that discourages a high numbers of off-colors.
*edit*
chance for any 4 off-colors would be
0.8*0.8*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2 * (6!/(4!*2!)) = 0.01536
Last edited by Buchsbaum#0527 on Aug 7, 2013, 10:06:53 AM
if the 10% for a specific off-color is correct
it's: 0.8*0.8*0.1*0.1*0.1*0.1 * number of permuatations those colors can appear (6! / (2!*2!*2!) = 90)
so it's 1 in 174
I don't believe these odds. If this was the case I'd be getting 4 off colors once every ~35 chromatics.
Since there are five different configurations to get 4 off-color combinations and you are claiming the odds of getting a specific one are 1/174.
That is so far removed from reality that it is almost silly.
1/35 chance to get 4 off-color? ABSURD.
Your math is definitely wrong.
actually the chance to get any 4 off-colors on a pure 6s item would be roughly 1 in 11.
I can assure you that the math is correct, however the base asumtions may be wrong.
It's nothing near clear that the color chances on a pure item are 0.8 0.1 0.1, and there may be a bias in the random that discourages a high numbers of off-colors.
*edit*
chance for any 4 off-colors would be
0.8*0.8*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2 * (6!/(4!*2!)) = 0.09216
Yeah it's just not true, sorry bud. Nice stab, but those numbers do not line up with reality.
It's applied math, so it either lines up with reality (is correct) or does not (is incorrect)
In this case it does not, so it's incorrect.
It's pointless to even debate the maths if you can't get your numbers to match up with results. My trial of 400 I do not think was a statistical anomoly. Looks pretty normal.
I'm saving up more chromatics to do another trial, and I expect similar results.
1/11 chance to get 4 off colors is just a laughable fantasy, and if you have ever used a single chromatic in this game you would know it to be true.
Last edited by tikitaki#3010 on Aug 7, 2013, 10:08:50 AM
It's discouraging as hell and makes me not even want to play.
Then I suggest leaving and coming back when you are encouraged to play again. Simply because I doubt anything will change.
This game is about build diversity, but it's also meant to be difficult in many regards. Either you will cope or you will leave and stay gone or come back later.
Yeah it's just not true, sorry bud. Nice stab, but those numbers do not line up with reality.
It's applied math, so it either lines up with reality (is correct) or does not (is incorrect)
In this case it does not, so it's incorrect.
It's pointless to even debate the maths if you can't get your numbers to match up with results. My trial of 400 I do not think was a statistical anomoly. Looks pretty normal.
I'm saving up more chromatics to do another trial, and I expect similar results.
1/11 chance to get 4 off colors is just a laughable fantasy, and if you have ever used a single chromatic in this game you would know it to be true.
Buchsbaum since fixed his post, since his calculator was having a bad day, and it's roughly 1/65 odds for 4 off color, rather than the 1/11 earlier posted.
In which case there's a 0.2% chance of rolling 400 chroms and not having a single 4 off color. Which is going to happen when there's this many players on occasion.
Furthermore, the 0.8 for on-color sockets is as estimate that's about right when finding probabilities for socket configurations with a lot of on-color sockets (in this case, B sockets). If the 0.8 is off just slightly (and it looks like it might be a little bigger than 0.8), then the odds for highly off-color configurations are even lower than we'd calculate. This is consistent with what you've experienced.
In which case there's a 0.2% chance of rolling 400 chroms and not having a single 4 off color. Which is going to happen when there's this many players on occasion.
Given the choice of believing
A) His math is wrong
or
B) I am in the .2% of unluckiest chromatic users on the server
I choose A). Seems a lot more likely.
It's relatively simple to make up some math about an unknown mechanic and point to somebody with negative results as being unlucky. That doesn't make it true.
actually the chance to get any 4 off-colors on a pure 6s item would be roughly 1 in 11.
I can assure you that the math is correct, however the base asumtions may be wrong.
It's nothing near clear that the color chances on a pure item are 0.8 0.1 0.1, and there may be a bias in the random that discourages a high numbers of off-colors.
*edit*
chance for any 4 off-colors would be
0.8*0.8*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2 * (6!/(4!*2!)) = 0.09216
Yeah it's just not true, sorry bud. Nice stab, but those numbers do not line up with reality.
It's applied math, so it either lines up with reality (is correct) or does not (is incorrect)
In this case it does not, so it's incorrect.
It's pointless to even debate the maths if you can't get your numbers to match up with results. My trial of 400 I do not think was a statistical anomoly. Looks pretty normal.
I'm saving up more chromatics to do another trial, and I expect similar results.
1/11 chance to get 4 off colors is just a laughable fantasy, and if you have ever used a single chromatic in this game you would know it to be true.
I corrected my post but was quoted before that - made an error with the permutations, 4 off-colors on a 6s pure would be 1 in 65, and that sounds somewhat reasonable
And if the math is wrong or right doesn't have anything to do if it fits the reality. The formula I used to calculate the probability of said combination is correct, the only thing that is debatable is the base-probabilitys for an off-color to roll and how they roll it.
You could for example have two apples, eat one and calculate that you have 2-1 = 1. While your brother may have eaten the second apple and you have none in reality - the math is still correct ;)
----------------
The thing to learn from this is that if OP didn't have extremly bad rng, then off-color chances are lower than 0.1 each or sockets arn't rolled individually or there is a bias in the rng that discourages many off-colors
GGG, what happened to, "Any class can play any build!"
I'm trying to make a melee witch. Heading into the Shadow area so armour is a no-go, trying to get enough red socket colours is just fucked. No other way to put it.
actually the chance to get any 4 off-colors on a pure 6s item would be roughly 1 in 11.
I can assure you that the math is correct, however the base asumtions may be wrong.
It's nothing near clear that the color chances on a pure item are 0.8 0.1 0.1, and there may be a bias in the random that discourages a high numbers of off-colors.
*edit*
chance for any 4 off-colors would be
0.8*0.8*0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2 * (6!/(4!*2!)) = 0.09216
Yeah it's just not true, sorry bud. Nice stab, but those numbers do not line up with reality.
It's applied math, so it either lines up with reality (is correct) or does not (is incorrect)
In this case it does not, so it's incorrect.
It's pointless to even debate the maths if you can't get your numbers to match up with results. My trial of 400 I do not think was a statistical anomoly. Looks pretty normal.
I'm saving up more chromatics to do another trial, and I expect similar results.
1/11 chance to get 4 off colors is just a laughable fantasy, and if you have ever used a single chromatic in this game you would know it to be true.
I corrected my post but was quoted before that - made an error with the permutations, 4 off-colors on a 6s pure would be 1 in 65, and that sounds somewhat reasonable
And if the math is wrong or right doesn't have anything to do if it fits the reality. The formula I used to calculate the probability of said combination is correct, the only thing that is debatable is the base-probabilitys for an off-color to roll and how they roll it.
You could for example have two apples, eat one and calculate that you have 2-1 = 1. While your brother may have eaten the second apple and you have none in reality - the math is still correct ;)
----------------
The thing to learn from this is that if OP didn't have extremly bad rng, then off-color chances are lower than 0.1 each or sockets arn't rolled individually or there is a bias in the rng that discourages many off-colors
This is cute, but it is just fantasy land. I've worked professionally doing applied mathematics, and nobody gives a flying fuck how "correct" you think your math is.
The only definition of "correct" anybody has is if it lines up with reality. That's it.
It's like "I swear! I did all the math 100% correct! I assumed it was a logistic growth model!"
Well, maybe you chose the wrong fucking model, meaning everything is wrong!
Since I was intrigued, I've made some Matlab simulations during my lunch break.
1. I made a N-by-6 matrix of random number between 0 and 1.
2. Value between 0.0 and 0.8 are B
Value between 0.8 and 0.9 are G
Value between 0.9 and 1.0 are R
3. Count the number of time 2R-and-whatever appears
Using N = 1000000, it gives a probability is 0.015277 i.e. 1/65 to have 4 off-color socket. So that math is definitively good.
Replicating 1000 times the 400 trials of the OP gives a probability of 0.002 of having 0 off-color so that math is also definitively good.
However, using the OP's data, the distribution of color is more like B=0.8358, G=0.0854, R=0.0788
Using 0.84-0.08-0.08 instead, the probability shifts to 0.0067978 i.e 1/147 and the probability of having 0 off-color in 400 chromatics is about 0.065 (32 times the previous value)
More data would give more precision but 0.84-0.08-0.08 and 1-in-15 bad luck seems more likely that 0.8-0.1-0.1 and 1-in-500 bad luck
Last edited by JIIX#6328 on Aug 7, 2013, 12:56:49 PM
