3.21 nerf predictions

Better nerf Irelia.

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Phrazz wrote:

Better nerf Irelia.

Don't give them ideas

Probably chill, given how useful it was for bosses in Sanctum and how much effect the new unique gives.

I bet auras in general get nerfed.

Either with a limit to the number of active auras one can have like curses or just a general reduction in power.

Sometimes they do weird nerfs, but I would guess:

- TC effect expiration (too strong with poison after the curse rework)
- Some unintended Nimis interactions

They might nerf the Diadem, but I hope they rework mana instead.

Seismic because people ask for it all the time
RF/FT because it's the most popular build for more than a year now
SRS cuz too stronk this league
Voidforge/Starforge/Disfavour partial buff reversal cuz melee way too stronk now

I honestly can´t agree on many of those points. I really believe it this time, that not a lot of nerfs are happening. Biggest contendors, as well as deserved, are those:

1. Poison
Let´s face it, seismic in itself isn´t really the biggest problem. Few tweaks could make it pretty fair again, but the way so many things use poison right now is a joke.
- Poison Seismic
- Poison Ancestral Totems
- Poison SRS, Poison Minions in general
- Poison Hexblast
- Poison Spark

You see the trend here?

Unfortunately, I can´t really see HOW they nerf it without seriously destroying the actual poison gems that are ironically the weak-performers when it comes to poison, like Venom Gyre, Pestilent Strike, Viper Strike, Cobra Lash. And while Poison Cocotion may be a solid build overall, this one surely will suffer from a poison-nerf too.

2. Devouring Diadem + Heatshiver
Mana Reservation is just extremely powerful and the rest of the stats on the helmet aren´t too bad eigher. Some minor tweaks to bring it back in line with rare options. Heatshiver on the other hand is way 2 much damage, it surpasses mirror-tier helmet options. Not sustainable.

3. Temporal Chains.
With the recent buffs TC has become one of the biggest powerhouses when it comes to curses, also one of the biggest reason for the poison-power right now. Might not get touched if a poison-nerf follows, the more realistic adjustment would be a nerf to ailment duration, which could also already fix poison in general (but again, nerfing the already weak poison-themed gems)

4. Spark
Reigning pretty supreme for a while as a allround-caster gem. I don´t think it necessarily deserves nerfs, but I can see them nerfing it.

5. Elementalist, especially ignite
Most popular ascendancy on SC Leaguestart by a mile, still top 3 at the end of the league based off of poe.ninja, insane dmg on virtually no budget, can scale incredibly well too, extremely versatile in gem-choice. Just overall a head above other options and I can see GGG wanting to bring it back in line with other things.

And thats all on my list.

Things I DONT consider getting nerfed:
Cold dot: Not flashy enough, not popular enough, and needs very high budget to do real dmg.
RF: Not flashy enough, while popular it isn´t the highest dmg skill in the game. It allows for phat tanks to feel good, thats about it. Skaling is limited, I dont see a problem with it.
Sabo & other Traps/Mines: Only popular for day 1-3 of a league, nobody likes it and the lack of power in regards to map-clear will never change that. Nerf their single target and you will have chieftain-levels of popularity on it, I don´t see it.

Gonna just drop this here from the "no balance manifesto" news post:

"Sometimes there's just so much numerical detail that the balance manifesto ends up reading like a set of patch notes, weirdly detached from the rest of the actual patch notes that you need to understand the context and plan your builds.

3.21's balance changes are mostly of the latter type. We'll explain them on the livestream and post the full details in the patch notes on announcement day. Don't worry though, there aren't scary systems reworks that we need to solicit feedback on ages in advance. Our balance goals with 3.21 are to provide more options and more fun for as many builds as possible, rather than reworking game systems in potentially disruptive ways. While there are of course some small nerfs, 3.21 is most definitely not a nerf-fest."


Now, after inhaling a kitava sized amount of copium, I can say I'm hopeful about the many underused active gems and maybe some of them will become viable without the crutch of mine/ totems/ traps.

1. Poison:
I think Poison is getting(And should be) nerfed.
Probably remove the or atleast halve the more debuff duration on Temporal Chains. Temp chains being a huge dot mulitplier and a defensive layer at the same time is kinda stupid. Nerfing Poisons is enough to hit the top meta builds without having to touch the skills individually. Things like Seismic, SRS and Spark are all meta builds using poison. Just nerfing Poisons should be enough for most of them.

2. Eldritch Altars
They intended to nerf Altars this patch and buff Maven witness a bit to bring them more inline. The Eldritch Altar "nerf" ended up being a buff. Eldritch Altars are now stronger than they were last patch. Probably is getting nerfed.

3. Seismic Trap:
GGG avoided nerfing it because "no one plays Seismic". Ended up being the best Leaguestarter as usual and was banned in Gauntlet. Should and will probably get nerfed.

4. Heatshiver:
Broken item, especially for how common it is. Should atleast be a T1 unique item due to its powerlevel. Probably better than nerfing the actual item.

5. The Covenant:
Level 29 added Chaos just seems too strong. This chest should probably be nerfed. Bring the added Chaos down by 3-5 levels.

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Xyel wrote:

With all the shittalking about D4 going on around here, traditions are being forgotten. I will not stand for that, so here is nerf predictions thread.

Why not predict buffs?

This is Path of Exile, not Carebears IV.

My personal nerf predictions:
1) Seismic trap. GGG has hinted this already, so I'm taking the easy win.
2) All the other traps, because it wouldn't be PoE if the entire archetype didn't get nerfed alongside its strongest skill
3) Devouring Diadem, for obvious reasons
4) SRS because temporary minions are too good in comparison to permanent minions. Time to bring them into line.
5) Boneshatter. Overperforms all other melee skills by too much.
6) Cold dot - too versatile, and the overlap of multiple cold dot effects stacks damage too easily. Time to introduce a new ailment, cold burn, which works just like ignite.
7) Movement skills - almost nobody plays ruthless, so all the other modes need to get closer to it, and nerfing all movement skills to death would be a good start
8) VVG, as it scales way too fast in terms of damage and clear speed alike.
9) Omniscience, because nerfing VG alone isn't enough
10) All damage over time in general - RF has been too good for too long, but nerfing it directly would piss off too many people, hence mobs need to get a hidden, 20 - 60 % unpiercable resistance to damage over time.
11) molten shell, in at least 3 different ways
12) cyclone hit rate (courtesy of vio)