3.21 nerf predictions

"

Xyel wrote:

1) Seismic trap. GGG has hinted this already, so I'm taking the easy win.
2) All the other traps, because it wouldn't be PoE if the entire archetype didn't get nerfed alongside its strongest skill
3) Devouring Diadem, for obvious reasons
4) SRS because temporary minions are too good in comparison to permanent minions. Time to bring them into line.
5) Boneshatter. Overperforms all other melee skills by too much.
6) Cold dot - too versatile, and the overlap of multiple cold dot effects stacks damage too easily. Time to introduce a new ailment, cold burn, which works just like ignite.
7) Movement skills - almost nobody plays ruthless, so all the other modes need to get closer to it, and nerfing all movement skills to death would be a good start
8) VVG, as it scales way too fast in terms of damage and clear speed alike.
9) Omniscience, because nerfing VG alone isn't enough
10) All damage over time in general - RF has been too good for too long, but nerfing it directly would piss off too many people, hence mobs need to get a hidden, 20 - 60 % unpiercable resistance to damage over time.
11) molten shell, in at least 3 different ways
12) cyclone hit rate (courtesy of vio)

Okay, let's check:
1 - maybe - poison cluster got nerfed, but can't tell how will saboteur changes affect it
2 - maybe - depends on saboteur changes
3 - yes - rebalanced drop rates from Katarina almost surely mean diadem will be omniscience-tier rare
4 - yes - poison cluster nerfs + general nerfs in masteries
5 - I'm not sure - don't know the build enough to tell if the masteries nerfs hit it or not
6 - yes - got nerfed via mastery changes
7 - no - although instead of movement skills, boss kill event took the hit. You will play/watch ruthless and you will like it.
8 - no, at least I haven't seen anything that bothered it
9 - no
10 - sort of - through masteries, at least all I looked at were nerfed
11 - yes
12 - no

Not bad :D

Wow, this is a VERY generous self-evaluation. If you take any changes, no matter how generic they are and count them to your initial suggestions you can make pretty much anything looking as solid prognosis.

Here is a more realistic judgement of your calls:

1) no direct nerf to ailment effect on ST or any of the scaling ST inherently has, therefore it "suffers" from missing the mastery like any other poison build. Since it reigned surpreme this doesn't affect its effectiveness in comparison, therefore no nerf, therefore: wrong.

2) you clearly said something about traps, not saboteur. And all other traps aside from explo early aren't mentioned at all. Therefore: wrong.

3) I don't think omniscience-rarity is realistic here but adjusted drop rates most certainly mean you can't get it with 50% chance until t3 maps now, most likely will only drop from like 75 onwards. I'll give u that one, right.

4) "general nerfs in masteries" well, 10/10 then I guess? I'll grant you that one due to the changes of united in dreams, but your argument wasn't the one that give u that point.

5) again, generic mastery mentioning is a very cheap way to net yourself points. It's like a fortune teller going "you will meet someone interesting", generalizing arguments to the point they have to be true at some point doesn't make your predictions good, it makes them generic. Boneshatter not mentioned, no point.

6) no. You expected changes to overlap, introduction of new ailment. Nothing of that sort happened. New cold mastery looks also very strong for bosses (inc. damage taken based on freeze duration). No point.

7) correct, no point. I only thing nerfed regarding movement was onslaught gem gone, but that mostly affects early game, not overall balance

8) correct, nope (also, I disagree... It doesn't scale as well as u make it to be)

9) nope

10) again, masteries affect everyone. Its generic, it might change a few percentages in power in the vacuum, while also not touch performance in comparison to others. That is not enough for my definition of a nerf, and honestly I don't believe its yours, given all the exxagerations u used in your initial post

11) yes

12) no

So we are at 3/12, which I don't think is as good as you make it to be.

But a word in piece: I wasn't really any better.

My suggestions were:
1) poison: maybe half a point die to duration removal, but I expected way more
2) dev. diadem + heatshiver: also half a point. Cant believe heatshiver stayed like that.
3) Elementalist + ignite:aside from the mastery changes nothing here, expected smth towards the ascendancy. No point
4) spark: weaker at early levels, nothing changed lategame. I was on the right gem, but that isn't enough to warrant a point.
5) temp chains: was basically an alternative suggestion to nerf poisons, no mentioning at all.

So thats 1, maybe 1.5 out of 5 as well :D

"

Vennto wrote:

Wow, this is a VERY generous self-evaluation.

How else do you expect me to evaluate myself? :D

"

Vennto wrote:

1) no direct nerf to ailment effect on ST or any of the scaling ST inherently has, therefore it "suffers" from missing the mastery like any other poison build. Since it reigned surpreme this doesn't affect its effectiveness in comparison, therefore no nerf, therefore: wrong.

2) you clearly said something about traps, not saboteur. And all other traps aside from explo early aren't mentioned at all. Therefore: wrong.

Seeing how, save for fire trap in RF, traps are played almost exclusively on saboteur, and that saboteur got nerfed to hell for traps by perfect crime being effectively removed, replaced with a trigger-focused same-named ascendancy, I'm taking a point for these two. That's effectively a ~30 % damage nerf, without factoring in the manacost. And that's without counting the diadem drop rate nerf as a nerf to traps.

I mean, look at seismic trap saboteur, it got:
1) Poison nodes nerfed
2) Chaos masteries heavily nerfed
3) Diadem drop rate nerf
4) Reservations through masteries nerfed
5) Saboteur heavily nerfed for traps
6) molten shell nerfed

Yes, seismic trap and traps in general aren't directly mentioned, but seismic trap in particular got nerfed in 6 different ways...

"

Vennto wrote:

My suggestions were:
1) poison: maybe half a point die to duration removal, but I expected way more
2) dev. diadem + heatshiver: also half a point. Cant believe heatshiver stayed like that.
3) Elementalist + ignite:aside from the mastery changes nothing here, expected smth towards the ascendancy. No point
4) spark: weaker at early levels, nothing changed lategame. I was on the right gem, but that isn't enough to warrant a point.
5)

To point 2, patch notes traditionally don't mention unique item tier moves, so heatshiver might have been moved up a tier or three on rarity, nerfing it through availability (pure speculation, but seeing how the manifesto is head-to-toe nerfs, I'm expecitng that).

"

I mean, look at seismic trap saboteur, it got:
1) Poison nodes nerfed
2) Chaos masteries heavily nerfed
3) Diadem drop rate nerf
4) Reservations through masteries nerfed
5) Saboteur heavily nerfed for traps
6) molten shell nerfed

Allright, that's more detailled, fair point. Take this point then :D

"

Xyel wrote:

"

Vennto wrote:

Wow, this is a VERY generous self-evaluation.

How else do you expect me to evaluate myself? :D

This is probably the most valuable take related to patch notes that I saw since last night, take another point for MVT.