when is next league out? surely not in early april?

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DarthSki44 wrote:

It's actually the reverse in my opinion. I think there are far more casual players in PoE that are here because they are limited by market choice, and are eagerly awaiting options. D4 will provide that.

D3 "provides" that too, yet 'they' are still here playing PoE. Lots of them are playing both. And when D4 comes around, I can't really see people playing a lot of D3 alongside D4. But PoE and D4? More likely, depending on ladders/seasons.

"

PoE at its core can be frustrating, difficult to understand, difficult to discern what's happening visually, lacking key QoL that's gets outsourced by 3rd party tools, and overall performance is subpar. D4 wont have many, if any, of those issues.

Neither does D3.

Look, D4 will crush it. Sell millions. Hell, maybe a contender for GOTY based on critics. But I still think you're underestimating the amount of people playing PoE because of its depth, itemization and customization - compared to Diablo's "offense and defense" itemization.

Anyhow, it will be hard to measure the long-term effects of D4, as it all depends on PoE 2 - and how it's received. What will be PoE 2's 'fault' and what will be D4's 'fault'?

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RandallPOE wrote:

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DarthSki44 wrote:

It does make sense, I just disagree with the notion the type of PoE players you are referencing outnumber the casual/average PoE players Diablo will appeal to.

It's actually the reverse in my opinion. I think there are far more casual players in PoE that are here because they are limited by market choice, and are eagerly awaiting options. D4 will provide that.

But what will it provide that D3 doesn't already provide for the casual player dissatisfied with POE?

One of the main focuses of D4 seems to be the open world stuff and that content is irrelevant after a few days. Very quickly people won't bother dismounting for an open world encounter while they ride from waypoint to dungeon and the world bosses are just big fat tedious loot pinatas. So you're left with dungeons which offer nothing over D3 rifts expect the joy of backtracking through empty corridors with no movement skills to get from objective A to objective B. I'm really struggling to see how they are going to move the game forward after release.

Well I have not personally played it like you have, so there is a decent amount of conjecture I'm engaging in based solely on what I've seen and read.

Cosmetic things aside that a next-gen version of Diablo would have over D3, it does appear the have some more depth and customization, a decent array of skills, characters, builds, and items. That should help replayability.

I cannot speak to end game loops and the goals of live service, which are critical, but I would have to imagine there were dedicated teams and roadmaps for this specifically, and have support post-launch.

I suppose D4 could fall completely on its face, I'd just be surprised if that happens.

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DarthSki44 wrote:

It does make sense, I just disagree with the notion the type of PoE players you are referencing outnumber the casual/average PoE players Diablo will appeal to.

It's actually the reverse in my opinion. I think there are far more casual players in PoE that are here because they are limited by market choice, and are eagerly awaiting options. D4 will provide that.

PoE at its core can be frustrating, difficult to understand, difficult to discern what's happening visually, lacking key QoL that's gets outsourced by 3rd party tools, and overall performance is subpar. D4 wont have many, if any, of those issues.

I never said the casual faction of the PoE player thats likely going to enjoy D4 was small or a minority or anything like that.
D4 going to be casual AF for better or worse and thus will attract casual players. No argument here

Personally I wouldnt touch D4 if I was paid to do so. I detest casual games with all my heart. Cant do it.


Thats hardly relevant tho. Its also irrelevant how huge the chunk of PoE players is going to be thats switching over to D4 - regardless whether its temporarily or forever. None of that stuff matters.

What matters to GGG is just one simple question:
Can PoE retain the whales?
I think they will be able to. The whales know what they signed up and paying for. D4 isnt going to change that, since D4 is catering to another group of players and thats why I dont think D4 is a competitor.

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Orbaal wrote:

What matters to GGG is just one simple question:
Can PoE retain the whales?
I think they will be able to. The whales know what they signed up and paying for. D4 isnt going to change that, since D4 is catering to another group of players and thats why I dont think D4 is a competitor.

Its not only whales(which also have crossover), but also industry interest and marketing.

For example, if Mathil, Quin, Steelmage (or insert favorite PoE streamer) pull 4x the viewers and subs, they ain't staying with PoE. Those are direct +- situations, and have impacts.



Edit: also I'm not entirely sure GGG can survive on whales only? Maybe?

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DarthSki44 wrote:

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Pashid wrote:

You will realize that the end of the next league is approximately around the same time as the exile con this year.
Probably means that we either get PoE 2 after the next league or a league after that cause they for sure want to keep up with D4.


D4 could have some potential but I highly doubt that they learned out of their mistakes in D3. Story is probably nice and the gameplay is going to be decent at first, if not already watered down right away. I mean the last wow expansion is somewhat a good indicator of how little effort they put into their games these days.

There is a zero percent chance that PoE 4.0 is released in 2023. We will be lucky to see an open beta in the winter.

Not so unlikely with ggg wanting to close the gap with the sudden release of D4.

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Pashid wrote:

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DarthSki44 wrote:

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Pashid wrote:

You will realize that the end of the next league is approximately around the same time as the exile con this year.
Probably means that we either get PoE 2 after the next league or a league after that cause they for sure want to keep up with D4.


D4 could have some potential but I highly doubt that they learned out of their mistakes in D3. Story is probably nice and the gameplay is going to be decent at first, if not already watered down right away. I mean the last wow expansion is somewhat a good indicator of how little effort they put into their games these days.

There is a zero percent chance that PoE 4.0 is released in 2023. We will be lucky to see an open beta in the winter.

Not so unlikely with ggg wanting to close the gap with the sudden release of D4.

I just dont see it. They said there will be a limited version for folks to try at Exilecon only, but that's late July and not even a full version.

There is no way 90 days or so after that it's fully released without any sort of beta. I understand the wishful thinking here, but I just cannot see the timelines working.

Streamers are free advertisement.
Its great and all to pull in new players for free.

I still dont think its all that relevant.
Whales wont be affected by that. Whether the games is being streamed or not, they will likely keep going.



This graph shows how irrelevant non-whales are in this industry.
Its fancy to have non-whales around and boast about retention numbers and all that stuff. Sounds great but doesnt pay the bills.

Whales do.

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DarthSki44 wrote:

Cosmetic things aside that a next-gen version of Diablo would have over D3, it does appear the have some more depth and customization, a decent array of skills, characters, builds, and items. That should help replayability.

Yeah it does look good even on out of date hardware and the classes are fun to play, the skills look and feel good. Not sure the depth and variety of builds is there yet but that is something that can be expanded on. It remains to be seen if the itemization will be a hit, felt a bit too close to Diablo Immortal for my liking. But all this is a moot point long term if the endgame loop doesn't feel good.

I guess it's quite easy to read the forums here or Reddit and think based on the handful of people who seem to hate themselves so much that they play POE religiously every league even though they despise it that there's hundreds of thousands of people ready to jump ship as soon as they can. It's probably not the case.

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DarthSki44 wrote:

I cannot speak to end game loops and the goals of live service, which are critical, but I would have to imagine there were dedicated teams and roadmaps for this specifically, and have support post-launch.

I'd be will to bet that team would be composed of people who are currently working frantically every evening and weekend to get the game ready for release.

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Orbaal wrote:

Streamers are free advertisement.
Its great and all to pull in new players for free.

I still dont think its all that relevant.
Whales wont be affected by that. Whether the games is being streamed or not, they will likely keep going.



This graph shows how irrelevant non-whales are in this industry.
Its fancy to have non-whales around and boast about retention numbers and all that stuff. Sounds great but doesnt pay the bills.

Whales do.

I dont know if that graph accurately depicts PoE or not tbh. That said, lets take it at face value. Even if true, I doubt very seriously GGG (or Tencent) dont care about... let's say 16-20% of their total annual revenue. That's many millions of dollars.

I've always wondered about the whale thing in POE given that you can't directly buy in game power so there's not so much incentive to be a whale. I'd imagine the income from all the little guys who just buy a few stash tabs or a supporter pack once every few vastly dwarves the income from people who you'd label as "whales". It's a different model to your traditional P2W games.