3.16 was GGG's biggest debacle. Giving them one more league to right the ship.

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yoritomo_aleta wrote:

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trixxar wrote:

So you have no data, you have nothing but you own feelings, but you try to do throw doubt on the data that exists?

You work at Fox news?

How are you extrapolating the Steam figures into a majority opinion? At no point has the fall in numbers been anywhere near 50% relative to the last league.

I have done analysis on the steam figures and posted them on this forum, and this showed an initial drop of 25% but that by this point in the cycle the player retentions seems to be higher than in Ultimatum. at no point have the figures been as high as a 50% difference.

I am not saying that no one agrees with you, or that you are a small crowd of people, but you are still a vocal minority with plenty of opinions to be found on reddit, from streamers and on this forum that this has been a top 3 league. This is a divisive topic and I am sure if GGG can find a way they will try to keep both camps happy. But if they have to make a choice, I am afraid you are on the losing side of this argument.

The most important figure happens over the course of multiple leagues. People can throw a tantrum for a league or two to try to prove a point, but if they come back it's ultimately not a lost player.

Moreover, I bet the most important player retention stat is league start to league start. Not retention over the course of a league, since playing a league longer doesn't present new avenues of revenue in my opinion. They just cost more to run the servers. Each new league offers new supporter packs, the need for character slots, and new excitement for the game.

I'm not saying people don't spend money over the course of the league, just that I think the lion's share comes at the beginning of the league. I think 3.16 will give enough trend of players returning over 2-3 leagues to actually understand the impact of 3.13 to 3.14.

I don't think it represents anything close to a majority leaving the game. There was a noticeable short term drop for 3.15. I think 3.16 and 3.17 will be more telling about whether that drop was permanent.

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Nubatron wrote:

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yoritomo_aleta wrote:

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trixxar wrote:

So you have no data, you have nothing but you own feelings, but you try to do throw doubt on the data that exists?

You work at Fox news?

How are you extrapolating the Steam figures into a majority opinion? At no point has the fall in numbers been anywhere near 50% relative to the last league.

I have done analysis on the steam figures and posted them on this forum, and this showed an initial drop of 25% but that by this point in the cycle the player retentions seems to be higher than in Ultimatum. at no point have the figures been as high as a 50% difference.

I am not saying that no one agrees with you, or that you are a small crowd of people, but you are still a vocal minority with plenty of opinions to be found on reddit, from streamers and on this forum that this has been a top 3 league. This is a divisive topic and I am sure if GGG can find a way they will try to keep both camps happy. But if they have to make a choice, I am afraid you are on the losing side of this argument.

The most important figure happens over the course of multiple leagues. People can throw a tantrum for a league or two to try to prove a point, but if they come back it's ultimately not a lost player.

Moreover, I bet the most important player retention stat is league start to league start. Not retention over the course of a league, since playing a league longer doesn't present new avenues of revenue in my opinion. They just cost more to run the servers. Each new league offers new supporter packs, the need for character slots, and new excitement for the game.

I'm not saying people don't spend money over the course of the league, just that I think the lion's share comes at the beginning of the league. I think 3.16 will give enough trend of players returning over 2-3 leagues to actually understand the impact of 3.13 to 3.14.

I don't think it represents anything close to a majority leaving the game. There was a noticeable short term drop for 3.15. I think 3.16 and 3.17 will be more telling about whether that drop was permanent.

Player retention doesnt mean diddly squat if people are not spending, GGG has very low expectations from the players right now, chris said they were down over 30% sales during the opening weeks which is when they typically make their money back on the expansion.

These expectations keep compounding every league and people are more unlikely to spend each time they erode their community expectations, If 3.16 doesnt flip the game on its head I expect it to only get worse, not to mention they have already said its unlikely a great majority of the changes are coming till at least 3.17 and later...

Honestly i expect the neat league to be an even bigger dud than expedition.

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trixxar wrote:

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Bleu42 wrote:

I also use chaos to craft items

I dont believe you. Bud.

Then don't believe me either, but I've never used a chaos for anything but crafting.

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stormyknight wrote:

Player retention doesnt mean diddly squat if people are not spending, GGG has very low expectations from the players right now, chris said they were down over 30% sales during the opening weeks which is when they typically make their money back on the expansion.

These expectations keep compounding every league and people are more unlikely to spend each time they erode their community expectations, If 3.16 doesnt flip the game on its head I expect it to only get worse, not to mention they have already said its unlikely a great majority of the changes are coming till at least 3.17 and later...

Honestly i expect the neat league to be an even bigger dud than expedition.

Even from the perspective of revenue, it's not a majority. It's enough that it is noticeable and they might need to scale back some of their ambitions, but it's still not a majority.

Time will tell of course. Giving in would be a bigger mistake, because then it would show that GGG can have their hand forced by a minority and then they'll lose 30% (or whatever it is) to the group of players that don't want 3.13 to come back because the example has been set that if you just hold your breath long enough, they'll change course.

GGG is in a tough spot, but the right answer is to not give in. I would be saying that even if I didn't agree with their changes. Once the community gets that kind of leverage, you've lost control of your game. GGG should never give that up. Even if that means slowing down their releases and scaling back the scope of things.

Now I'm not saying they shouldn't take feedback and change things that are not critical to their vision. For instance scaling back the mana changes at the beginning of the league. The severity of the initial changes was clearly not a core part of their vision, and they still kept the spirit of those changes in place. That's reasonable while still keeping control of their development and vision.

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ZionHalcyon wrote:

But objectively speaking, 3.16 was such a debacle that Chris Wilson had to go on essentially a PR campaign and answer tough questions no more than 3 days after lunch which has to be a new record for damage control. No White Knight can argue that this didn't happen.

Who argues about that? But you´re like the 500th post about the exact same thing, sorry I am not rolling out the red carpet for your observations. Stop wasting everyones time with a wall of text of things that have been mentioned 500 times over before your post already.

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Casual to semi casual players such as myself don't matter. Doesn't matter how much money we spend on MTX or supporter packs- we don't matter in ggg's overall vision, in their words.

Why are you supposed to matter based on the number of money you spend? You want pay-to-win? No? Why bring that up then?

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But is someone who really enjoyed the hell out as the game, I hate the feeling of being gated from harder content unless I somehow grind out 50 ex or more to be able to afford the equipment needed to do the harder content

First of all - watch some youtube-content. There are builds crushing the game for 10% of that. And a lot of it.

Secondly, learn the damn game. 50ex is NOTHING. It´s kind of funny how casual players always say "yeah 50 ex is what no-lifers make". Dude, I quit this league 2 weeks in. 2 Damn weeks. With gear roughly at 1.5 mirrors (back then) as well as a headhunter. If I (definately not the best player) can make that in 2 weeks, you lack basic knowledge how to produce currency. Even after the starting weekend you can end up with someting like 20ex to set yourself up for a chill league, without sacrificing one day of vacation for it. The so-called "no-lifers" produce closer to 500ex a league, not 50.

Just because your time investment is casual, does not mean your playstyle should be. And if you PREFER to take things slow, then don´t expect to crush the endgame in one month. Why is no one of you guys ever adressing the fact that you as a player lack the ability to pull it off, its not the time investment alone?

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None of it feels natural and all of it feels forced, to the point where the game has stopped being fun.I am not alone in this as GGG lost major streamers over 3.16 and even those that stuck around were complaining about how it isn't fun anymore and were questioning whether or not they would continue.

Yes, agreed - but you´re not alone with that opinion. Tons of posts adressed this, and even your so called "no-lifers" like MBX said they disliked this patch and had no fun. Once again, the lack of fun had nothing to do with casuals this league, everybody hated it. It has been mentioned hundred times. Why repeat it once again in such a wall of text?

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And at the end of the day, if you don't devote your life to grinding currency, All you can count on is extreme luck, and maybe you might end up with a build that may or may not challenge the top one on every 4 to 6 weeks as a casual player. And anyone saying different is lying about being a casual player.

Always an easy way right - calling others lying just because you fail to see that you are the one not making currency where you could easily make enough for what you´re looking to do in the game.

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It's the antithesis of what GGG does, has been doing, and what their core vision is.

Wrong. Their vision is long-term sustainability and to have players play PoE all through their 20ies and potentially longer. Just because you don´t like their approach does not mean you get to lie about what they are trying to achieve.

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Path of Exile is a game made for the developers by the developers and anyone else who happens to enjoy it is just there to be along for the ride. Anyone who spent time listening to all those podcasts knows that this is exactly correct.

Guess I didn´t listen properly then.

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So let's see what GGG can do. Different genres but I may end up going back to my old game.

Please do.

I've been playing a differnt game too. It's not like GGG is losing out because I play a different game for a while. Come on.

I don´t care. I´m done playing Path of Exile. And I´m done buying Supporter Packs. I rather wait till Path of Exile 2 is released.
The only thing Path of Exile is nowadays is nothing but a joke out of itself.

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trixxar wrote:

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Bleu42 wrote:

I also use chaos to craft items

I dont believe you. Bud.

Unless you are in SSF and there is literally nothing better to do with currency. Then, sure. However, Chris and his minions have said countless times the game is balanced around trade, even that they thought the game required trade, so your point is moot.

Makes a list of hyperbolic statements, every one of them countered, cherry picks one response and deletes the rest from the quote.

It's scary when your world view is challenged huh

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yoritomo_aleta wrote:

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trixxar wrote:

So you have no data, you have nothing but you own feelings, but you try to do throw doubt on the data that exists?

You work at Fox news?

How are you extrapolating the Steam figures into a majority opinion? At no point has the fall in numbers been anywhere near 50% relative to the last league.

I have done analysis on the steam figures and posted them on this forum, and this showed an initial drop of 25% but that by this point in the cycle the player retentions seems to be higher than in Ultimatum. at no point have the figures been as high as a 50% difference.

I am not saying that no one agrees with you, or that you are a small crowd of people, but you are still a vocal minority with plenty of opinions to be found on reddit, from streamers and on this forum that this has been a top 3 league. This is a divisive topic and I am sure if GGG can find a way they will try to keep both camps happy. But if they have to make a choice, I am afraid you are on the losing side of this argument.

Sorry I'm late to this party, been enjoying D2R. Your analysis is not only flawed, its lacks context given the information Chris has divulged during his media blitz.

Per Chris, launch weekend itself saw a 50+% player dropoff (which is Steam + Client), and a 30+% revenue shortfall. Again, THIS WAS ONE WEEKEND.

The player reduction comparatively league over league shows a massive loss of player retention. Easily their worst league in recent years, and all of the player growth gains in the last 2+ years were sacrificed in less than 15 days.

Now will GGG get those players back in 3.16? I don't know. But there is no doubt 3.15 was a disaster, both fiscally and in player concurrency.

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trixxar wrote:

Steam charts.

If you disagree with me, provide better data. But, obviously you cant.

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trixxar wrote:

So you have no data, you have nothing but you own feelings, but you try to do throw doubt on the data that exists?

You work at Fox news?

I used Steam charts as my data, the same data you used. The difference being is that Steam chart data supports what I wrote and not what you wrote. It was a small distinction I made regarding the use of baffles but an important one.

You are not privy to all the information. You are not a GGG employee. You are guessing based on tid bits of factual data which do not and can not support in full what you wrote regarding the above unless more information is divulged. This is fact. So yes that person was justified to be baffled by that type of "analysis and conclusion".

You are not privy to the knowledge of my personal life and will have to guess like you have done with the Steam chart data. Doing this kind of thing really does people a discredit to themselves but lets entertain this train of thought for a brief moment and allow me to respond in kind:

Are you a Google or Facebook bot with such vast personal data collection methods? RP'in as an omniscient being of some sort? Sent out surveys to the what 1mil+ players that can pass through a league? Yeh gets silly real quick.