GGG's Regrets of 3.15 Patch - Player Backlash
" Why is it disingenuous? Peak numbers are consistent as in the time of the day where most people are able to play. It's a perfect metric to analyze the decline in player numbers. You know what's disingenuous? To cherry pick and isolate numbers from the weekend and try to decieve readers that the league is gaining players over time. You know what also is disingenuous? To chose the wrong average numbers and try make the league you're supporting look more succesfull than it actually is. Harvest average numbers first month: 30 073 Harvest Average numbers second month: 34 840 I absolutely LOVE how you tried to make Harvest sound worse than it actually was by picking the average numbers from August 2020 which were 18 829 You were actually comparing average players during the last month of Harvest when the league was about to end to the beginning of Expedition. It's also funny how you're using the Last 30 days metric of expedition comparing it to the end of the league of harvest. If you truly want to compare Harvest to Expedition in a 1:1 ratio, compare the league start of the month of Harvest to the league start of the month Expedition started. Harvest, june 2020: Average players - 30 079 Expedition, July 2021: Average players - 19 382 Also, I think I understand where you're getting this notion that the player numbers are increasing from. You're comparing the Last 30 days metric to the July 2021 metric and seeing that the average players has increased by 4k. Your interpretation is hillarious. Really shows that you don't understand math at all, and you're trying to demonize statistics collected by people on reddit. Dunning Kreuger at the most intense levels at display. The reason why the average players in the last 30 days metric is higher than during July is because the July numbers incorporate the daily players from ULTIMATUM. Ultimatum was at the end of its league and had VERY few players still playing. The last 30 days metric uses these 4 last days of Augst into the estimate and takes out 4 of the days of Ultimate. Obviously, 4 days in augst 1 week into a new league is going to be vastly more popular than the 4 last days of a dying league like Ultimatum. That's why you get an increase in numbers. It's asinine how much you're trying to twist and misinterpret statistics to fit with your narritive. Enjoy being a part of the vocal minority buddy. |
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" Please give me an argument why using peak daily numbers isn't representative and average numbers of an entire month is? I'll give you my primary reason why I choose peak daily numbers: Because those numbers better isolate the statistics from one league alone. You know why average monthly numbers is a garbage metric to use? Because it doesn't isolate the numbers from a league. Let me explain: 2021 - July - 1 to 22: ULTIMATUM LEAGUE 2021 - July - 22 to 31: EXPEDITION LEAGUE When you're taking the average numbers from the month of July you're not isolating the numbers of expedition. You're analyzing the numbers of two leagues at the same time. This is why using average numbers is a GARBAGE metric for analyzing how Expedition is doing. Same thing goes for Harvest. Average numbers during harvest league in its release is completely invalidated because it incorporates the league start of harvest with the leage end of Delirium. Those statistics are irrelevant. This is why it looks like Harvest gains players in its second month (It goes form 30k to 34k) Harvest didn't gain players. It's just that more people were playing Harvest during the second month of a new league than they did during the last month of Delirium. Peak players are a perfect metric to use because it's consistent and isolates all variables. If you want to use average numbers every day you're free to calculate them yourself. I can guarantee you they're going to be worse than Harvest aswell. To calculate the average numbers for each day, take peak player count and bottom player count in the span of 24 hours and divide it by 2. Currently, Expedition has worse peak players AND bottom player counts than even Harvest, so it's average is going to be worse aswell. |
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" You either not perceptive and miss that average stats include previous league, or worse: you are perceptive and you misinforming others on purpose. Good luck!
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Reminds me of the quote…. There are Liars, Damn Liars and Statistics.
The only numbers that matter are income numbers that GGG gained and if those met their targets, all is good and if they didn’t, then all is not so good. |
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" Yup...Margins are king. Everything thing else is just a factor. |
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" EDIT: Maybe I should've read the newer posts a bit more carefully as someone else already posted this data, instead of being too eager to do the "you're wrong" -response, but that's fine. A good point bares being made more than once. Where are you seeing this, exactly? Maybe you were confused by the Saturday/Sunday gains due to it having been the weekend? Here's what Steamcharts shows: https://imgur.com/a/5cyZqNa Looking at the peaks, here's what we see: July 23, peaked at 116106 July 24, peaked at 91504, lost 24602 players July 25, peaked at 88104, lost 3400 players July 26, peaked at 75885, lost 12219 players July 27, peaked at 69895, lost 5990 players July 28, peaked at 66706, lost 3189 players July 29, peaked at 62785, lost 3921 players Lost a total of 53321 players (46%) after first week. Average loss per day of around 5744 players during the first week, not including the first big dip. July 30, peaked at 60367, lost 2418 players July 31, peaked at 62411, gained 2044 players (weekend, Saturday) August 1, peaked at 64671, gained 2260 players (weekend, Sunday) August 2, peaked at 58306, lost 6365 players August 3, peaked at 54239, lost 4067 players August 4, peaked at 50954, lost 3285 players Lost a total of 65152 players (56%) after 13 days. Average loss per day of around 1972 players during the second week, thanks to small gains during the weekend. Total average loss per day of around 2833 players, including the weekend gains but not including the two bigger peaks on the 2nd and 4th days. Estimated peak tomorrow of around 48000 players, with a total loss of about 68106 players (58%) after two weeks. Lost 53321 players, or 46% after the first week, and only 11831 more (10%) after the second week. If we'd assume another 10% after the third and fourth weeks, then we could estimate around 88814 players (76%) would have quit after the first 28 days, with another 27292 still playing after four weeks, and maybe around 24000-25000 after a full 30 days. Speaking of peaks showing on Steamcharts of course. Either way, Steamcharts doesn't show any kind of rise in player retention aside from a very small increase for the weekend. Last edited by Sydänyö#0821 on Aug 4, 2021, 8:57:35 PM
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Some of those changes ofcourse are not directly attributed to league/"rebalancing"
I guess that especially on tradeleagues the fallout from that much of the population simply leaving will be felt quite hard. If my assumption that a lot of the higher tier of players left is true, then that means that buying items/gems/jewels will be a lot harder this league around, as the supply just isn't available. That in turn is leading for an unenjoyable gameplay for the lower tier of players, who do not know how to efficiently farm, as the price of "hot" items rises due to nobody efficiently farming and supplying. -edit- I mean yeah its still the fault of 3.15 ever happening, but it is the fallout of 3.15 rather than the 3.15 deployment itself Considering SSF is untouched by this problem I think that the biggest decline of players will happen inside the tradeleague Farming salt on the forums since 2024 Last edited by Toaru_Majutsu_no_Index#1288 on Aug 4, 2021, 9:44:27 PM
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