GGG please end speculation by denying streamers better loot
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jewdas12 wrote:
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Desrers wrote:
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jewdas12 wrote:
If you really wanted to, you could very likely collect strong evidence from streamer footage alone without having to compare it to anything else. There are plenty of stats that are known, such as socket and linking probabilities, corruption probabilities, crafting etc etc. If you want to make a real case and if it is true, the evidence is easily accessible.
Compare it to the minecraft speedrun cheating scandal recently, where the drop rates of certain items were tampered with, and it was proven beyond any reasonable doubt that it was modified, just from the footage alone.
But you wont do this.
Well because chances for socket and linking are not known, as well as chances for mirror/headhunter drops as well. And GGG was always reluctant about giving that info to public. And we all can only think why they hiding that info
but they are known, from extensive testing. The averages needed are very well documented. Even things like head hunter chancing is known, from various heroes documenting the usage of insane amounts of ancients.
You dont need ggg to share the numbers for these things to accurately determine the probabilities of these things. Drops (beyond specific boss drops) is of course not feasible to determine because you would have to keep track of so many things, but 6 linking an item? Spend 100k fusings and you will know the number with very high certainty, using the various tools of statistics, and this has already been done.
There are no excuses. The evidence to conclusively prove this is right in front of you. Bring forth the hard evidence and put and end to this
You do understand that 100k fusing is just nothing in terms of actual statistics? For examle with probability 50% (coin flip) 100k attempts are not enough to really get 50% chance only from 1mil plus flips chances becomes more even, and that for 50% chance. So for 5% chance you need 10x of that and so on. But there other factores that have influence to link item (such as quality) meaning that to even get close to theoreticly real numbers we need to run at least couple millions of fusings at every number availible from 0 quality to 48. If you have information of such projects please share that info. Same can be said about haedhunter chancing (with chances and ancient)
but they are known, from extensive testing. The averages needed are very well documented. Even things like head hunter chancing is known, from various heroes documenting the usage of insane amounts of ancients.
So what's the chance of getting a headhunter from an ancient orb then?
about 1 in 320 iirc
So that's a fixed number and it's impossible to get one with less without having special privileges?
Last edited by Randall#0850 on Apr 20, 2021, 5:46:18 AM
Well because chances for socket and linking are not known, as well as chances for mirror/headhunter drops as well. And GGG was always reluctant about giving that info to public. And we all can only think why they hiding that info
but they are known, from extensive testing. The averages needed are very well documented. Even things like head hunter chancing is known, from various heroes documenting the usage of insane amounts of ancients.
You dont need ggg to share the numbers for these things to accurately determine the probabilities of these things. Drops (beyond specific boss drops) is of course not feasible to determine because you would have to keep track of so many things, but 6 linking an item? Spend 100k fusings and you will know the number with very high certainty, using the various tools of statistics, and this has already been done.
There are no excuses. The evidence to conclusively prove this is right in front of you. Bring forth the hard evidence and put and end to this
You do understand that 100k fusing is just nothing in terms of actual statistics? For examle with probability 50% (coin flip) 100k attempts are not enough to really get 50% chance only from 1mil plus flips chances becomes more even, and that for 50% chance. So for 5% chance you need 10x of that and so on. But there other factores that have influence to link item (such as quality) meaning that to even get close to theoreticly real numbers we need to run at least couple millions of fusings at every number availible from 0 quality to 48. If you have information of such projects please share that info. Same can be said about haedhunter chancing (with chances and ancient)
no, but it allows you to establish upper and lower bounds with reasonable certainty, and to collect any sort of evidence supporting your hypothesis. And you wouldnt have to collect data for arbitrary values of quality, since 20% will be the far most prevalent value. But instead all you ever is hearsay and anecdotes, when there is thousands of hours of footage for anyone who is serious about this to analyse. Nobody will ever take any of this seriously until actual numbers are presented, but it seems like that will never happen
Point is, this is another excuse. Falling back on sample sizes not being large enough is not good enough when there is still so much you can find from the data at hand
Last edited by jewdas12#5648 on Apr 20, 2021, 5:57:31 AM
You do understand that 100k fusing is just nothing in terms of actual statistics? For examle with probability 50% (coin flip) 100k attempts are not enough to really get 50% chance only from 1mil plus flips chances becomes more even, and that for 50% chance. So for 5% chance you need 10x of that and so on. But there other factores that have influence to link item (such as quality) meaning that to even get close to theoreticly real numbers we need to run at least couple millions of fusings at every number availible from 0 quality to 48. If you have information of such projects please share that info. Same can be said about haedhunter chancing (with chances and ancient)
no, but it allows you to establish upper and lower bounds with reasonable certainty, and to collect any sort of evidence supporting your hypothesis. And you wouldnt have to collect data for arbitrary values of quality, since 20% will be the far most prevalent value. But instead all you ever is hearsay and anecdotes, when there is thousands of hours of footage for anyone who is serious about this to analyse. Nobody will ever take any of this seriously until actual numbers are presented, but it seems like that will never happen
Point is, this is another excuse. Falling back on sample sizes not being large enough is not good enough when there is still so much you can find from the data at hand
Guess you missunderstnd my point it's not that i believe that streamer gets better loot and stuff because it is not affecting me. Sure i never drop mirror or HH but i'm able to buy both if needed. Not first day in league sure, more like first 2 weeks, but i play 2-3 hours a day tops, and not every day so less playtime less farm. The problem is if GGG have nothing to hide (like streamer queue) than why hide HH droprate and other staff like that? They where asked many times but never they make that info a public knowledge or say why they keeping drop secret.Makes people think there is a reason for that (and there obv a reason)
Guess you missunderstnd my point it's not that i believe that streamer gets better loot and stuff because it is not affecting me. Sure i never drop mirror or HH but i'm able to buy both if needed. Not first day in league sure, more like first 2 weeks, but i play 2-3 hours a day tops, and not every day so less playtime less farm. The problem is if GGG have nothing to hide (like streamer queue) than why hide HH droprate and other staff like that? They where asked many times but never they make that info a public knowledge or say why they keeping drop secret.Makes people think there is a reason for that (and there obv a reason)
there are plenty of things they dont disclose and want the community to interact with to discover themselves, such as secret vendor recipes. Not disclosing drop rates makes sense if you want to keep some of the mystique surrounding rare drops, and to encourage people to do research and experiment. There are however things that we definitely know, such as crafting probabilities, and that is certainly something you can look at if you suspect foul play
Chris says "I gurantee you that streamers get no advantage" -> players call him a liar
Chris offers a selected number of players to take a look at the necessary code. -> players call him a liar and the whole action a trick show, because GGG selects the persons who are allowed to look into it.
Chris publishes the necessary code in order to proof there is nothing like this in it. -> players claim that the published code isn't the used one.
Once you get hit by confirmation bias to a certain degree, it's incredible hard to convince people otherwise. Just take Q'Anon as example: every try to proof that this is nonsense gets used as proof that they are right and the enemies spreads lies to shut them down.
You say Prison Cell, I hear 'Holiday'.
Last edited by Judaspriester#5334 on Apr 20, 2021, 8:36:24 AM
Guess you missunderstnd my point it's not that i believe that streamer gets better loot and stuff because it is not affecting me. Sure i never drop mirror or HH but i'm able to buy both if needed. Not first day in league sure, more like first 2 weeks, but i play 2-3 hours a day tops, and not every day so less playtime less farm. The problem is if GGG have nothing to hide (like streamer queue) than why hide HH droprate and other staff like that? They where asked many times but never they make that info a public knowledge or say why they keeping drop secret.Makes people think there is a reason for that (and there obv a reason)
there are plenty of things they dont disclose and want the community to interact with to discover themselves, such as secret vendor recipes. Not disclosing drop rates makes sense if you want to keep some of the mystique surrounding rare drops, and to encourage people to do research and experiment.
What so mustique about rare drop? Even with harvest nerf picking rares only good for 1-2 day in league. After that you can buy semi-half items for about 1-2 chaos. And chances for droping good rares are all but impossible.
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Judaspriester wrote:
Honest question: How should they do this?
Well if they post formulas for droping loot/HH/mirror everyone can take any streamer that get that drop and any other and do the math. If for such things for example can happen in 1:100000 ratio it is in realm of possibilites but if said ratio will be 1:10^10 that will raise question for that streamer, but if all streamers (which hooked up to GGG and was getting queue priority because not all people who was streaming get that only those who big/famous/paid) get the same rate but small people have different ratio then matter would be settled for majority of people
