Yet Another Map drop Rant

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Frankenberry wrote:

Nah. It is like telling someone who does not know how to gain high tier maps that it is possible and he should rethink his own strategy. His playstyle is flawed. Not the game.

No, it is not strategy. It is luck. Of course, the strategy will increase your chances to get lucky, but it will not guarantee it, and you can still play a month without getting anything useful with the perfect technique (unless you play 16 hours a day, then a month will pretty much for sure get you somewhere).

I had bad troubles getting any useful maps for a long time. Like, anything at all. Then, one day, I got 6 T12+ maps from a single T13 (5 T13+). The entire day was pretty retarded, I chained T12/T13 from then on and my T12+ map pool grew and grew, so did the T10/T11 pool. Did I change anything in my strategy? No. Since then, my T12+ map pool has risen from about 7 to 25. Same strategy, nothing different.

Stop telling people they do not know how to roll maps. Ask them politely if they know how to roll maps. If they don't, give them hints. If they still got problems, don't blame it on their skills. Blame it on RNG. Cause that is where the blame needs to go to.

So both Char1983 and Edgewood makes the argument that sustaining a map pool is basically about luck. This is wrong. Here is why:

The chance of success being a map dropping of a decent tier does not influence the chance of a failure. Visa versa the chance of failure (for instance not gaining a new map from running a map) does not influence the chance of success for the following map.

Where does that leave us? Well as with everything else in this game it becomes a matter of "rolling a dice" many times to (nearly) eliminate the element of RNG (or in graphical terms the normal distribution becomes very narrow).

When should can you reasonably apply the logic of RNG then? Only in instances with a very low chance of success (for instance fusing for a 6L) or if you have a low amount of times you "roll the dice".

So for instance if you run 100 x tier 11 maps with decent rolls the chance of being unlucky or lucky is very limited compared to you running only 10 x tier 11 maps with the same average rolls.

Char1983 you even made a useful thread about this yourself if I am not mistaken. The statistical approach to map drops or something along those lines.

It has nothing to do with luck. Sure RNG exists within a smaller sample size (for instance your last 100 maps) but in the grand scheme of things those are just small variations.

The amount of maps you have to run to somewhat even things out is >1000. That is the problem.

Of course, if you run an infinite amount of maps, it is purely about strategy. But you cannot run an infinite amount of maps and if you are a casual player, even running 2000 maps will take you a very long time (months to years, depending on how casual you are).

But yeah, for some reason, this game is balanced towards the top 0.1%.

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Char1983 wrote:

The amount of maps you have to run to somewhat even things out is >1000. That is the problem.

Of course, if you run an infinite amount of maps, it is purely about strategy. But you cannot run an infinite amount of maps and if you are a casual player, even running 2000 maps will take you a very long time (months to years, depending on how casual you are).

But yeah, for some reason, this game is balanced towards the top 0.1%.

newsflash, the game wasnt (and hopefully still isn't) catered to casual players. why pretend like it was ?

seriously, the game plainly stated it catered to a hardcore crowd. it did so on its title page.

the game was always about grinding (ie, repeating farming) enough and RNG. map drops arent anything different. you grind long enough, you will get them and end up going up tiers. the top tier map drops are meant to be a rare occasion even for no-lifers, much less casual players.


yet we are still acting surprised at this fact like it's a revelation of epic proportions ?

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Frankenberry wrote:

So both Char1983 and Edgewood makes the argument that sustaining a map pool is basically about luck. This is wrong. Here is why:

The chance of success being a map dropping of a decent tier does not influence the chance of a failure. Visa versa the chance of failure (for instance not gaining a new map from running a map) does not influence the chance of success for the following map.

Where does that leave us? Well as with everything else in this game it becomes a matter of "rolling a dice" many times to (nearly) eliminate the element of RNG (or in graphical terms the normal distribution becomes very narrow).

When should can you reasonably apply the logic of RNG then? Only in instances with a very low chance of success (for instance fusing for a 6L) or if you have a low amount of times you "roll the dice".

So for instance if you run 100 x tier 11 maps with decent rolls the chance of being unlucky or lucky is very limited compared to you running only 10 x tier 11 maps with the same average rolls.

Char1983 you even made a useful thread about this yourself if I am not mistaken. The statistical approach to map drops or something along those lines.

It has nothing to do with luck. Sure RNG exists within a smaller sample size (for instance your last 100 maps) but in the grand scheme of things those are just small variations.

You are wrong. as the normal distribution is set to fail in this particular case, it is very similar to how a slot machine operates. As you approach the right side of the bell curve it becomes very distorted as each tier you go up becomes more likely to drop a lower tier than a higher or equal one. Anyone who has a pool of the so called unsustainable maps has done so by Sheer luck and beating the odds that they are not sustainable according to GGG. So any argument that it is a case of running more maps is invalid. Now Can they build a stash of them by only running up to say tier 12 and keeping the rest to stare at yes. But those with a pool of maps gathered through running lower tiered ones and working there way up the so called ladder is because they have had more successes at rolling the dice than others. So if you are going to start trying to be an expert in number theory please do everyone a favor and actually understand the concepts behind it first, remember as Abe Lincoln said everything someone posts on the internet is true. Esp people named after breakfast cereals. PS BOO Berry was much better.

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StDrakeX wrote:

Pretty Easy

Yup, mapping is fine honestly. You obviously can't sustain t13+ 24/7 without buying , but thats intended design. I remember what the grind to 100 was when the highest maps were lvl 78. Now you can do 99-100 in like 2 days solo if you have enough time and currency. Imo its really easy now.
In addition you can sustain t10/11 relatively effortless by just alching and maybe throwing some chaos at them sometimes.

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grepman wrote:

newsflash, the game wasnt (and hopefully still isn't) catered to casual players. why pretend like it was ?

seriously, the game plainly stated it catered to a hardcore crowd. it did so on its title page.

the game was always about grinding (ie, repeating farming) enough and RNG. map drops arent anything different. you grind long enough, you will get them and end up going up tiers. the top tier map drops are meant to be a rare occasion even for no-lifers, much less casual players.


yet we are still acting surprised at this fact like it's a revelation of epic proportions ?

leaving aside who can be called casual (because you seem to believe that ppl who play this game 20+ hours a week are still casuals).

the problem i have is that your so-called casuals MAY BE able to sustain high maps whereas more hardcore (again: playtime? rly?) players may not.

this actually is the problem. map drops are only "fair" for those ppl who play this game as their main job (meaning: play 8+ hours a day).

it was said numerous times.
ppl want it to be more fair. reduce the variance. make maps drop like a specific patern. like mid tier maps can only drop +1s if they are rare. high tier maps can only drop +1s of they have at least 120 (combined, meaning normalised with pack size) quantity. low tier maps can only drop +1s if they are played magic.
BUT then (like said) also reduce the variance.

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Char1983 wrote:

The amount of maps you have to run to somewhat even things out is >1000. That is the problem.

Of course, if you run an infinite amount of maps, it is purely about strategy. But you cannot run an infinite amount of maps and if you are a casual player, even running 2000 maps will take you a very long time (months to years, depending on how casual you are).

But yeah, for some reason, this game is balanced towards the top 0.1%.

Well I am not playing at the moment but when I have the time and a new league starts I sometimes clear close to 80 maps a day. So 1000 is just a few days of work. But yeah - this game does not (and in my opinion should not) revolve around casual players.

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edgewood wrote:

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Frankenberry wrote:

So both Char1983 and Edgewood makes the argument that sustaining a map pool is basically about luck. This is wrong. Here is why:

The chance of success being a map dropping of a decent tier does not influence the chance of a failure. Visa versa the chance of failure (for instance not gaining a new map from running a map) does not influence the chance of success for the following map.

Where does that leave us? Well as with everything else in this game it becomes a matter of "rolling a dice" many times to (nearly) eliminate the element of RNG (or in graphical terms the normal distribution becomes very narrow).

When should can you reasonably apply the logic of RNG then? Only in instances with a very low chance of success (for instance fusing for a 6L) or if you have a low amount of times you "roll the dice".

So for instance if you run 100 x tier 11 maps with decent rolls the chance of being unlucky or lucky is very limited compared to you running only 10 x tier 11 maps with the same average rolls.

Char1983 you even made a useful thread about this yourself if I am not mistaken. The statistical approach to map drops or something along those lines.

It has nothing to do with luck. Sure RNG exists within a smaller sample size (for instance your last 100 maps) but in the grand scheme of things those are just small variations.

You are wrong. as the normal distribution is set to fail in this particular case, it is very similar to how a slot machine operates. As you approach the right side of the bell curve it becomes very distorted as each tier you go up becomes more likely to drop a lower tier than a higher or equal one. Anyone who has a pool of the so called unsustainable maps has done so by Sheer luck and beating the odds that they are not sustainable according to GGG. So any argument that it is a case of running more maps is invalid. Now Can they build a stash of them by only running up to say tier 12 and keeping the rest to stare at yes. But those with a pool of maps gathered through running lower tiered ones and working there way up the so called ladder is because they have had more successes at rolling the dice than others. So if you are going to start trying to be an expert in number theory please do everyone a favor and actually understand the concepts behind it first, remember as Abe Lincoln said everything someone posts on the internet is true. Esp people named after breakfast cereals. PS BOO Berry was much better.

First of all - in the future try to use sections for your text. It makes it much easier for any readers to understand you.

A) You assume progress is moving from T11->T13. It isn't really. Sustaining a map pool is never done within a single tier. Always in numerous tiers revoling around Tier X. So for instance I could run tier 8, 9 and 10. It would not be a stepback if I was running Tier 8 after I was done with my Tier 10 maps. It is all within the same "pool" or same "Tier" if you prefer that term

"As you approach the right side of the bell curve it becomes very distorted as each tier you go up becomes more likely to drop a lower tier than a higher or equal one"

Yes. This is true. You cannot sustain T14+. Also it is true that the low map drops (T1-8) does not help you with sustaining your end game map pool besides chisel recipe. That is also true. Theoretically I guess you could sustain T13. I myself never did that. Tier 12 with an occasional dip into platue / T11 for variation is the best I could do.

Where you are mistaken is your overwhelming focus on luck. They do not "roll the dice better than others". They just roll more dices. And they roll them better by using vaal orbs constantly.

As for your whole "you do not understand jack shit Mr. Cereal". I do understand the concept. And because of this I succeeded building up a strong map pool this league and all the ones before that (except beginning of warbands with nerfed map-drop rates). It is not about luck. It is about math. Simple math.

Oh and btw since you have access to T14 maps my guess is you are already sustaining a quite solid map pool, so what seems to be the problem in the first place? That you were unlucky with 2 T14 maps?

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Vhlad wrote:

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Frankenberry wrote:

Spoiler

:) Easy.

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StDrakeX wrote:

Pretty Easy

This is like telling an unemployed university graduate living out of their car that the job market is fine because you have a job, and then bragging about the nice big house you have. Learn to life unemployed homeless scum!

That was fucking golden. ^^



I don't complain about my drops this league, but it's still no fun system x.X
All I care about in this game is... maps, how to get them, roll them, grind them, rinse and repeat.
In other aRPGs I was mainly focusing on... gear/items, but that's done in PoE before I even run my first map >.>

Peace,

-kcstar-



PS: mud geyser