Pointless argument about chance and randomness

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Kreos wrote:

"Random selection is a method of selecting items (oftentimes called units) from a population where the probability of choosing a specific item is the proportion of those items in the population"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randomness

"Of or relating to an event in which all outcomes are equally likely"

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/randomness

"being or relating to a set or to an element of a set each of whose elements has equal probability of occurrence"

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/random

Do I need to go on? Read any intelligent article dealing with randomness and chance, you will find that they either implicitly or explicitly say the same thing.

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mibuwolf wrote:

Ok, enough with the definitions.

If the outcome is predicted, then it is not 'Random'. FACT.

Conversely:
If the outcome is not predicted, then it is 'Random'. FACT.


If we weight the probability of an outcome, it is still not predictable UNLESS the outcome has been weighted so heavily to give a probability of 1.

Therefore, using these prior facts we can say that as long as no outcome is guaranteed to happen, it is still 'Random'.


(note: in statistics though random is still considered heavily to be "without bias" and requires an equal outcome)

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Kreos wrote:

"Enough with the definitions!"

*proceeds to list definitions*

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Kreos wrote:

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Sickness wrote:

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Kreos wrote:

Despite how horribly Deccode is presenting himself, he's actually correct. The difference you're arguing is randomness versus chance. Your picture is depicting the CHANCE that one of the outcomes occur, and the chance of these outcomes are not equal. However, just because a system relies on chance does not make it random. Randomness implies that the outcome is equally likely to occur proportional to the number of outcomes, whereas general probability allows any outcome to have bias or different chances of occurring.

Randomness does not imply that at all.

"Random selection is a method of selecting items (oftentimes called units) from a population where the probability of choosing a specific item is the proportion of those items in the population"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randomness

"Of or relating to an event in which all outcomes are equally likely"

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/randomness

"being or relating to a set or to an element of a set each of whose elements has equal probability of occurrence"

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/random

Do I need to go on? Read any intelligent article dealing with randomness and chance, you will find that they either implicitly or explicitly say the same thing.

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Applied usage in science, mathematics and statistics recognizes a lack of predictability when referring to randomness, but admits regularities in the occurrences of events whose outcomes are not certain. For example, when throwing two dice and counting the total, we can say that a sum of 7 will randomly occur twice as often as 4. This view, where randomness simply refers to situations where the certainty of the outcome is at issue, applies to concepts of chance, probability, and information entropy. In these situations, randomness implies a measure of uncertainty, and notions of haphazardness are irrelevant.

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1. Having no specific pattern, purpose, or objective: random movements.
2. Mathematics & Statistics Of or relating to a type of circumstance or event that is described by a probability distribution.

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Definition of RANDOM

1
a : lacking a definite plan, purpose, or pattern
b : made, done, or chosen at random <read random passages from the book>
2
a : relating to, having, or being elements or events with definite probability of occurrence <random processes>

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Kreos wrote:

We are absolutely talking random selection here versus probability. You are arguing that the chance of slots/links to be picked is randomly selected. I'm arguing that it isn't randomly selected, it is based off biased probability selections not randomness.

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If you show favor to one side it's not random, at least not random enough to be called random.
Game is favoring less links than more links.

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Fruz wrote:

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But what you're doing in this example is taking a random roll and then manipulating the result into your system. For example, lets say that the .33% rule is correct, then using your example I roll use whatever chaotic function GGG is using to make a pseudo-random number and restrict it to 1000. So i have a basically random number 1-1000. That is the random aspect, however then I say if the number is 1-33, it's 6 slot, 33-100 5 slot, 100-400 4 slot, etc etc etc (made up numbers, just illustrating). So what you're actually doing is manipulating the truly random variable and then calling it still random.

oops missed that.

Then, I didn't manipulate anything here, I just gave an explanation of why it is easyer to get a 7 than a 1 with the basic system, considering that all the possible outcome have the same chance to come out.
I originaly though that GGG would do the same, but they do manipulate the orbs system to have the odds they want about it.
I'm familiar with programming switch which is precisely what it is about here, I just didn't think GGG would have used that over simple probabilities.

Manipulating something based on a random number still makes a system random, you can't predict the result, the result number is just computed to get the result. I believe, that based on that, we can still call it a "random" system.
But I believe even more that this is not the point of this thread ( originaly ).

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mibuwolf wrote:

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Kreos wrote:

We are absolutely talking random selection here versus probability. You are arguing that the chance of slots/links to be picked is randomly selected. I'm arguing that it isn't randomly selected, it is based off biased probability selections not randomness.

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If you show favor to one side it's not random, at least not random enough to be called random.
Game is favoring less links than more links.

No, we defining what random means. Random can be biased. If it isn't considered random, then what is it? I certainly cannot predict the outcome.