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almostdead wrote:
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puviel wrote:
I'd say doing this within 2 weeks of a temporary league is outside of any person's luck. It should also be noted that the odds of rolling 6 Tier 1 mods is the same odds as rolling 6 of the lowest mods.
if your calculation is correct, doing this in 2 weeks even with duping seems outside of reach. He must have had some luck too though.
For sure he must have had some luck as I doubt he used that many eternals and exalted=). The calculation is simplified so the number is lower than the real number (about a factor of 1000). But you can take it as a good estimate as to what the odds are.
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Posted bypuviel#2600on Jan 21, 2015, 6:47:29 PM
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almostdead wrote:
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puviel wrote:
I'd say doing this within 2 weeks of a temporary league is outside of any person's luck. It should also be noted that the odds of rolling 6 Tier 1 mods is the same odds as rolling 6 of the lowest mods.
if your calculation is correct, doing this in 2 weeks even with duping seems outside of reach. He must have had some luck too though.
The (simplified) calculation is for obtaining an item with those affixes via chaos spam or random drop. The probabilities are additive (not multiplicative) when the item is et/ex crafted.
Never underestimate what the mod community can do for PoE if you sell an offline client.
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Posted byVhlad#6794on Jan 21, 2015, 7:26:18 PM
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Vhlad wrote:
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almostdead wrote:
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puviel wrote:
I'd say doing this within 2 weeks of a temporary league is outside of any person's luck. It should also be noted that the odds of rolling 6 Tier 1 mods is the same odds as rolling 6 of the lowest mods.
if your calculation is correct, doing this in 2 weeks even with duping seems outside of reach. He must have had some luck too though.
The (simplified) calculation is for obtaining an item with those affixes via chaos spam or random drop. The probabilities are additive (not multiplicative) when the item is et/ex crafted.
Hmm. I don't thinks so. It is the same as rolling two dice simultaneously or two dice sequentially. The probability of the total outcome is the same (multiplicative) in either case. Or am I missing something here?
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Posted bypuviel#2600on Jan 21, 2015, 10:25:41 PM
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lol reminds me of d3 ....currency and item duping. at least they made game with minimal desync tho in futile attempts to stop cheats
Git R Dun!
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Posted byAim_Deep#3474on Jan 21, 2015, 10:31:17 PM
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VaultOfExcrement wrote:
This is actually making me fucking furious. I grind like a fucking maniac for hours and get nothing but shit. And then i see this shit, i think my fucking piss is boiling.
pp
lol no good deed goes unpunished
i wont outright cheat cos they can catch u. but i dont farm or grind shit. just flip.....so ez...2-10ex everytime i log guaranteed.
but i would cheat if i wasnt such a puss
Git R Dun! Last edited by Aim_Deep#3474 on Jan 21, 2015, 10:43:34 PM
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Posted byAim_Deep#3474on Jan 21, 2015, 10:35:29 PM
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puviel wrote:
Hmm. I don't thinks so. It is the same as rolling two dice simultaneously or two dice sequentially. The probability of the total outcome is the same (multiplicative) in either case. Or am I missing something here?
When you et/ex craft you obtain 1 affix at a time and lock it in place. Treating it multiplicatively is acting as if you're attempting to obtain 6 specific affixes in one set of rolls (starting all over, i.e. dumping out the good affixes you may have already obtained, if one roll misses).
Example:
For finding an item with those 6 specific affixes, crafting it via chaos spam, or using a bunch of ex yolo style:
1/91 * 1/(91-7) * 1/(91-7-7) * 1/102 * 1/(102-8) * 1/(102-8-6) = 1/496617593472
For crafting an item 1 affix at a time, locking in progress with an eternal orb before each attempt:
1/(91 + (91-7) + (91-7-7) + 102 + (102-8) + (102-8-6)) = 1/536
That only seems like it's a low investment because your figures assume each affix has an equal weighting. We know that's not the case. Tyrannical might be 1 in 2000.
Never underestimate what the mod community can do for PoE if you sell an offline client. Last edited by Vhlad#6794 on Jan 21, 2015, 11:20:06 PM
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Posted byVhlad#6794on Jan 21, 2015, 10:48:29 PM
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Lynerus wrote:
Just goes to show you how bad PoEs crafting system is when you need full invos of ex and et etc orbs to craft even 1 item
How GGG think people can do this... no idea unless we hack/dupe/etc so they have themselves to blame not the dupers
I wish i could craft some of my gear but the amount of orbs id need i would have t begin crafting at least 10 years from now (or 20) and so this is why we can't have nice things
On the one hand I agree with you about the crafting.
On the other hand if you read the reddit post that sort of thing also made the game very boring to play.
Sure initially it might be fun to run around mowing everything down but that will wear off quickly.
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Posted byKhisanth#7434on Jan 21, 2015, 10:50:24 PM
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Vhlad wrote:
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puviel wrote:
Hmm. I don't thinks so. It is the same as rolling two dice simultaneously or two dice sequentially. The probability of the total outcome is the same (multiplicative) in either case. Or am I missing something here?
When you et/ex craft you obtain 1 affix at a time and lock it in place. Treating it multiplicatively is acting as if you're attempting to obtain 6 specific affixes in one set of rolls (starting all over, i.e. dumping out the good affixes you may have already obtained, if one roll misses).
Example:
For finding an item with those 6 specific affixes, crafting it via chaos spam, or using a bunch of ex yolo style:
1/91 * 1/(91-7) * 1/(91-7-7) * 1/102 * 1/(102-8) * 1/(102-8-6) = 1/496617593472
For crafting an item 1 affix at a time, locking in progress with an eternal orb before each attempt:
1/(91 + (91-7) + (91-7-7) + 102 + (102-8) + (102-8-6)) = 1/536
That only seems like it's a low investment because your figures assume each affix has an equal weighting. We know that's not the case. Tyrannical might be 1 in 2000.
Yes, you are right. Thanks for clearing that up!
Yes, the weighting is different for different affixes and not accounted for, and equally so the numeric values in an affix are not accounted for either.
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Posted bypuviel#2600on Jan 22, 2015, 3:52:58 AM
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