How the Economy Actually Works

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ScrotieMcB wrote:
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emtwo wrote:
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ScrotieMcB wrote:
The two myths are very widely believed, and I'm sick of seeing them.


Weird, I've never seen anyone try to argue either of those points on forums or in chat. Can you direct me to an example?

http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/457270/page/6
http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/456411/page/2 (novalight)
http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/458441

Probably could find more; lazy.


Well, thank you for using me as one of the examples for your economic treatise. But did you see the title of the post: what would YOU do if exalts were more common? Well, since I don't trade anyway, I'd use them for my gear and maps. That's what I'd do. Me. I also don't play games to be economically efficient but I play them to get the fuck away from economy and greedy fucks which is what I have to deal with on a daily basis for my paycheck. But I'm wierd like that, I don't care about wealth IRL or in games. What I do care about is fun.

Btw, it's also true, that if you idk double the drops...exalts would still be best used as currency (for your average player), but if they drop like candy on a helloween, people would have boatloads of them and I doubt they'd go...WTS Shavronnes 2000 exalts :P. So it's just a matter of quantity when they stop being best used for currency and you start spending them freely.

And something else I learned is: while I was talking to GW2s economy dev Mr. Smith (heh I like his name, always reminds me of Matrix and Adam Smith the economist) is, that player perceptions are wrong most of the times. When people were discussing economy and the scale on which things happen and he supplied some numbers now and again it was VERY VERY different from what players thought it was happening (god bless those hardworking players that took time to make spreadsheets, charts and wall-o-texts only to be shot down in 1 post). So unless GGG starts supplying the community with numbers it's all just speculation (usually wild one at that). It's similar to speculating why the share price of company X is such and such without seeing the balance sheets, share history and the rest of the market.

Anway, perhaps it would be nice to debate such things but I confess I'm ill suited to do this on forums since I usually rather spend my time in game and I mostly skim forums at work. TS/Vent for the win :P
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ScrotieMcB wrote:
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WinWalter wrote:
It's not entirely similar. In the real world, central banks print money. POE doesn't have anyone printing currency. You actually have to work to generate value in POE unless you're botting or cheating.
Every time you kill a monster, and an Exalt drops, that is printing currency; new currency has just entered the system where there was none before.


That's not entirely accurate. I have already stated that actually have to work before you can create currency. Central banks don't have to do that in real life. They only have to add zeroes on a computer screen without doing anything. They do not have to farm real food, mine metal, or harvest wood from forests.

In POE, you do have to destroy monsters by using time and resources before currency can be created.

Also, anyone can do this in POE and so can I or anyone else that plays the game. I doubt you or I control the central bank in any country.
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Fleshbits wrote:
150 fusings to 5L a 6s, and 300 fusings to 5L a 5s



Where do people get this from?

It's pretty clearly, in theory and practice, far easier to 5L a 5S than it is to 5L a 6S.


It is also weighted to not link in a 6S.
While there are 2 possible permutations for 4 bars to result in 5L, there are 3 possible permutations for 4 bars to result in no 5L.

See for yourself how many 4 bar results have the missing link as one of the 3 centre links.
It is far more than (read several times more) the missing link being the first or last (i.e. a 5L result).


It's also worth noting that the vast majority of successful 5L'd 6S items are linked with the missing link at the bottom rather than the top. A ratio of about 4 or 5 to 1.
Casually casual.

Last edited by TheAnuhart#4741 on Jul 10, 2013, 6:15:15 AM
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WinWalter wrote:
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ScrotieMcB wrote:
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WinWalter wrote:
It's not entirely similar. In the real world, central banks print money. POE doesn't have anyone printing currency. You actually have to work to generate value in POE unless you're botting or cheating.
Every time you kill a monster, and an Exalt drops, that is printing currency; new currency has just entered the system where there was none before.


That's not entirely accurate. I have already stated that actually have to work before you can create currency. Central banks don't have to do that in real life. They only have to add zeroes on a computer screen without doing anything. They do not have to farm real food, mine metal, or harvest wood from forests.

In POE, you do have to destroy monsters by using time and resources before currency can be created.

Also, anyone can do this in POE and so can I or anyone else that plays the game. I doubt you or I control the central bank in any country.


Central Banks don't just "add zeroes on a computer screen". if they did, your money would be worth less than the toilet paper you use to wipe yourself.
the amount and value of money a Central Bank can print, depends on many things:
gold reserves, stock-market stability, Gross National Product, international coin value...

I'm sure Charan and other players who are investors in real life, can explain this a lot better than I can.

but while real economy encourages fair trade, and puts people who scam others behind bars - Path Of Exile "economy" thrives on the cheaters, RMT-ers, and scammers.
GGG are fighting all of the above, and winning on many fronts - but you need to look no further than Standard League Trade, to see the damage is already done.
Alva: I'm sweating like a hog in heat
Shadow: That was fun
Last edited by johnKeys#6083 on Jul 10, 2013, 6:05:44 AM
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ScrotieMcB wrote:
Spoiler
I've posted this before in replies to threads, but it keeps coming up so I'm giving it a thread of its own.

Let us stop at the top of the economy food chain. These folks are the no-lifers with the amazing stashes and the best gear on the server. But here's the thing about having the best gear on the server: you can't trade for an upgrade. It's literally impossible. So instead you must farm one (which would involve chaining very high-level maps) or you make it yourself. Both of these things require large amounts of currency. So when a one of these players does trade something away, what they want are Exalts, and they intend to use them in large quantities, because given their position they are essentially in self-found mode.

Let's say one of these players finds something to sell. The maximum logical price is a little less than the average cost to make it oneself with orbs; if it was the same, players would just make it themselves. The lowest logical price is a little more than the vendor would give, which is virtually nothing. In order to save time trying to find an interested buyer, items end up about halfway between these two extremes, at much less than the average crafting cost. Simply put, prices are set according to minimum hassle finding a buyer and getting more than vendor would offer, and otherwise simply getting as much as one can.

Immediately below the best-gear folks you have the people with almost the best gear on the server. There are two ways for them to upgrade: either those with the best gear will find an upgrade then try to sell their old gear, or they can farm/orb it themselves. This becomes a test of patience, as the best-gear population which feeds them upgrades themselves seldom find upgrades, and thus rarely hand-me-down their old gear... thus upgrades are rarely available, but cheaper than "crafting" when they are. So these players hybridize trading with the practice of making gear themselves.

Once you get a few tiers down, there is a steady feed of upgrades available to buyers. Because of this constant availability, hybridization disappears and trading for upgrades becomes the de facto best practice. Even if the person you're trading with doesn't consume Exalts, the person he's trading with (or the person he's trading with, and so on) does, so it's still the players at the very top setting the demand.

Now that we understand the situation, let's debunk two common myths:

Myth: Increasing droprate will make players craft more.
Truth: Only if they're stupid with their "money."

The price of hand-me-downs available on the market is not set by droprate, it's set by the seller, and will always be significantly less than the cost to make it from scratch, since the seller doesn't want to waste time finding a buyer nor risk vendoring it. If an upgrade for your character is available on the market, the only reason to make it yourself is that you enjoy paying more.

Myth: No one actually uses currency, except for maps.
Truth: No one you know, maybe. But some are using a ton of them.

Remember that those at the top of the economic food chain can't trade for upgrades, so the main thing their currency is good for is making the upgrades themselves and/or perpetuating very high-level maps. The reason certain orbs are in such high demand is that those are the orbs those players need to forge their upgrades.


Thats exactly what is happening.

In order to make crafting really available for non-top players, we need account-bound items:
http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/450522, and possibly increase rare orb droprate.
You're right. The money would be worthless and will be. Fiat Money always returns to it's intrinsic value of zero.

The amount of currency it "prints" is not based on gold reserves, stock-market stability, Gross National Product, nor international coin value. Look at Zimbabawe in 2008. They printed until the currency lost all value. It was not based on gold reserves or anything else. Ever heard of, "It's not worth a continental?"

Central banks set interests on what they think is best, usually at the detriment of many people.

The point I was trying to focus on, was that unlike Central Banks, in POE, not one person or a small group of people can determine how much currency to create. In POE, each person creates currency based on their efficiency and time played in the game. Central Banks do not have this limitation.

TLDR;

Players create currency. In the real world, Central Banks do and normal people are not in that loop.
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ScrotieMcB wrote:

...I ran the Community 6s Fusing Log up until 0.11 (at which point I quit). Over 115,000 Fusings worth of data. The results from that gave about 125 for a 5L and 900 for a 6L. I didn't collect data on 5s; I'll assume 250. So 1.25 Ex 6s, 2.5 Ex 5s.
...


That is where I looked first when deciding my strategy. I thank you for your efforts there. It was very insightful and much needed knowledge.
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emtwo wrote:

As a side-note, the economy is awful in this game and it always will be unless GGG makes two changes they will never make, which is why we should have a no-trade league option.



The economy is fan-fucking-tastic. I dont know why you think this.


Its very simple: every orb has a HARD CAP on what they are worth, because they are intrinsically useful.

If exalts go too high up in price, people stop using them for crafting.


When people stop using them for crafting, they build up and become less valuable, at which point people start using them for crafting again.


THAT is the genius of this economy. Inflation just means you should start crafting.
Last edited by Seeders#7506 on Jul 10, 2013, 11:53:32 AM
I would craft more if the drop rates were increased. Don't see how you say ppl won't. Its way to hard getting orbs in the first place and to easy to get a fu from the rng slot machine. Higher drops mean I won't be staring at my 40 chaos afraid to use them. How long does it take to get a measly 40 fuses. Me a few days. Yet on forums we see many examples of 1500 and nothing. I refuse to craft because its broken. Worse then being an immigrant slave worker at 10 cents an hour. Here's a glass of water make it last because you get 1 week.
Last edited by Torrentula81#6280 on Jul 10, 2013, 11:57:07 AM
What a long winded way to essentially say nothing & have a very narrow sighted view of the games' economy, players & trading trends.

Just a shame you forgot to encompass; RMT, Bots, the effect of 3rd party sites, streamers effect, people who only trade currency, trading for BIS uniques, self founders & people who just get lucky to mention a few. The economy is far more complex & dynamic than you make it out to be. Without having hard data infront of you to draw statistics from you are essentially just giving your opinion of what you think the economy is like based on your own experiences.

It also makes me die a little inside every time I hear someone say "don't use your orbs to craft just buy your upgrades" or "crafting is being stupid with your money". Sounds like we might as well just be using gold if it's dumb to use orbs. The intention of the orb system was to be more than just a gold substitute, if it is never the right choice to use an orb other than trade then I feel that is a problem with the game as it is not achieving it's intentions.

Using currency or trading should be a calculated decision but what we have is a situation whereby it is ALWAYS better to trade for upgrades than to craft them. Only at the end of end game does it become a viable decision & that is because you are at the stage where upgrade progression it at it's bitter end.

While I feel you failed to say anything pertinent about the economy I do feel you highlighted the more serious problem of orbs essentially being gold.

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