How the Economy Actually Works

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Unilin wrote:

Pretty much agree with the OP on this. The main problems with the game's economy such as it is are that 1) crafting is only viable for those who already have the best gear, and even then only out of desperation, and those with the worst gear where transmuting a white will provide an upgrade and 2) no good gear ever leaves the economy. I think Scrotie was the one who posted the thread about item decay and perma-destruction, though I could be remembering wrong.

What would fix these problems would be making crafting an attractive alternative for everyone, make it actually a tough choice whether you spend or use your orbs. There are a few different ways you could do this, which I won't get into here, but they all really hinge on:

2) Items need to leave the economy. As long as hand-me-downs are readily available, they will always be cheaper and a better idea than crafting yourself, there's really no way around it. Some sort of perma-item breakage would solve this, but I can understand why the idea is so repulsive to people.

That was me, but my enthusiasm on that topic died significantly. The reason was as simple as looking at the hardcore economy. Now there's a market where items break on death... but it's still true that you'll always be going for a hand-me-down if it's available. Gear sinks are interesting for partially mitigating the supply of upgrades and thus controlling inflation/deflation, but are not going to lead to significantly more situations where upgrades are completely unavailable... and thus not have much effect on the "crafting"/trading choice. Cutting something in half is a ineffective way to make it zero; therefore, item breakage is essentially irrelevant to the hand-me-down effect, despite having a casual connection.

I have my own suggestions how to make crafting viable for the masses; however, I hesitate to list them here. The OP is a statement of fact; trying to "fix the economy" is conjecture. I do not want the core message tainted by opinion, at least not mine.

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

I have my own suggestions how to make crafting viable for the masses; however, I hesitate to list them here. The OP is a statement of fact; trying to "fix the economy" is conjecture. I do not want the core message tainted by opinion, at least not mine.

Not to be a jerk, but your original post is mostly conjecture that is already tainted with opinion, so you might as well enjoy the ride and discuss the issue with a little more breadth.

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johnKeys wrote:

how economy works: people buy stacks of orbs for real money from some shady site GGG didn't take-down yet, then use those orbs to buy stuff for cheap, then sell these for 1000% profit (or more, depending on the "sucker" they find to rip-off), then claim being "legitimately rich" because only 5% of their current wealth is the real-money stack they started with.

Oh, where to start.

First off, this crazy perception of RMT buyers as evil versions of Charan with giant Scrooge McDuck bank accounts is just flat-out unrealistic. Common sense would tell you that the distribution for illegitimate RMT would look a lot like the distribution for legitimate Supporter Packs - sure, you might have one crazy $12,500 man, and a noticeable population of $1000, but the vast majority of RMT users are going to be in it for $100 or less. Which, last time I checked this one exchange-rate-index site with an unfortunate RMT lean, was 4 Exalts. Or less. (I heard GGG crippled them since, so maybe even less than 4 now.)

Someone that buys 4 Exalts isn't sitting on top of the food chain; most RMT buyers are at the bottom and feeding their currency upward.

But more importantly, even black market arbitrage isn't so easy that you can get 10 times your input back. Truth is, it's like legit arbitrage with slightly more scamming. In real life, for example, you might cut the cocaine a bit... but if you give people product that's only 10% straight dope you're probably going to have some folks looking to kill you. The same goes for RMT arbitrage in this game; if you flip something into ten times as much, it likely involved plenty of good, old-fashioned market tycoon work, most of it as legit as non-farming wealth acquisition comes.

The people profiting from RMT aren't trading, they are botting. The buyers are just suckers feeding the botting machine, and likely getting ripped off in the process. Just like people who buy drugs, their principle sin is not in their actions per se, but in the machinery their dollars go to support.

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emtwo wrote:

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

I have my own suggestions how to make crafting viable for the masses; however, I hesitate to list them here. The OP is a statement of fact; trying to "fix the economy" is conjecture. I do not want the core message tainted by opinion, at least not mine.

Not to be a jerk, but your original post is mostly conjecture that is already tainted with opinion, so you might as well enjoy the ride and discuss the issue with a little more breadth.

Disagree. This is how shit actually works.

I dunno where people get their perspectives from.

Sure, items keep entering the system. I agree that it should be a problem and that items need to leave the system, but that isn't what I experience at all.

I do not find people selling for less than it would cost to craft an item.
I find people constantly marking up items 5 and 10 times what it would take to craft.
How do they do it? _Item level_

In order for me to be competitive on a lvl 68 map. I need the crap from the guy doing the level 74 map.

I am sure, people will argue that my build sucks or whatever. I've made 7 characters. 3 from proven cookie cutter builds and 4 original. Guess what? All 7 are waiting for gear to progress between level 65 and 75 and have been for more than a month. All 7 have nothing to do at all except farm docks or farm catacombs with 100 IIQ and 300 IIR and they must continue to do so for an average of 2 weeks per item upgrade.

With these characters I've been shopping. I don't trade the traditional, "Offer" way, because it is bullshit. I've got 7 stash tabs full of crap I cannot sell, so I reckon other people have the same problems. I ask the seller to offer, take his offer, write it down with the stats, and select the best deal. But you know what? I can get 25 listing on a level 68 5L and all of them are 5X what it would take in fusings and chaos to make my own. Problem is getting that level 68 base item in the first place or the unique I am looking for an they know it.

So, of course, when I get something to sell to people lower level than I am, I am trying desperatly to get the exponential amount of currency to buy MY upgrade. My level 40 dagger with the OK stats, really should be worth a chaos or two, but that hardly makes a dent in what I am trying to come up with, so I ask him for gcps. If he says, no, I use all manner of tactics. Maybe I say Ok, and ignore him for awhile until he comes back with the please pleases and raises what he would pay. Maybe I hold onto it. My stash space is no big deal, I can just buy more. And who knows maybe I'll make yet another character that can use it. I have what seems an endless supply of character slots after all.

I went shopping for an Infernal Mantle recently, and couldn't even get an unlinked one for less than 7 gcp with good rolls. The 30 or so people I talked to want 2 exalts, AT THE CHEAPEST, for their 5L, so I figure I'll buy one for 7gcp and link it myself, hoping that I am correct that 5L is about 1 exalt worth of fusings. Most wanted somewhere between 4 and 10, which I just didn't even bother to write down, since it was obvious crafting would be better or I could get it cheaper!

So, if the economy really was saturated with items, one would think I'd be seeing offers for half of what they are.

Bottom line is, people have stash space for days and they will use it. I know I spent $100 or so on my stash space. We can't really tell GGG to limit it, but I think that is the real problem. Big stash + multi account/huge number of character slots/mules = no incentive to sell.

@Fleshbits: What do you believe is average fusings to make 5L? What affixes are you looking for and how many Chaos do you believe it would take?

5L is actually pretty rare; my hunch is that the market isn't overpricing. But I'll wait for your reply before jumping to conclusions.

It is worth pointing out, however, that the true market price is always less than stale listings; the reason they are stale is because the seller is asking for too much.

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

@Fleshbits: What do you believe is average fusings to make 5L? What affixes are you looking for and how many Chaos do you believe it would take?

5L is actually pretty rare; my hunch is that the market isn't overpricing. But I'll wait for your reply before jumping to conclusions.

From all the posts and googling that I've gone through. I believe it takes an average of 300 jewelers to 6s, 50 jewelers to 5s, and 150 fusings to 5L a 6s, and 300 fusings to 5L a 5s. It's all guesses just based on reading through hundreds of pages of varying logs. Most people I've talked to though seem to agree that it is roughly an exalt worth of fusings and jewelers give or take.


As far as chaos, it would take 1000s to get what I want, but that isn't for sale anyway. I settle for just some decent +% to def and a few stat or resist bonuses. I go for two good rolls. Usually takes about 15 chaos to get there.

One example of what I really want and need is +Es +%ES +chaos resist, and +int all with 50% or more of the max rolls...but that, my friend, is utopia and only exists in fairy tales :P....well that and for those who spend hundreds of regals and exalts, which I will never have :) You don't see that kind of thing for sale. But my needs vary from character to character. I got 7 mouths to feed. I am just working on my most promising now with the infernal mantle experiment.

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

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johnKeys wrote:

how economy works: people buy stacks of orbs for real money from some shady site GGG didn't take-down yet, then use those orbs to buy stuff for cheap, then sell these for 1000% profit (or more, depending on the "sucker" they find to rip-off), then claim being "legitimately rich" because only 5% of their current wealth is the real-money stack they started with.

Oh, where to start.

(1)

Spoiler

First off, this crazy perception of RMT buyers as evil versions of Charan with giant Scrooge McDuck bank accounts is just flat-out unrealistic. Common sense would tell you that the distribution for illegitimate RMT would look a lot like the distribution for legitimate Supporter Packs - sure, you might have one crazy $12,500 man, and a noticeable population of $1000, but the vast majority of RMT users are going to be in it for $100 or less. Which, last time I checked this one exchange-rate-index site with an unfortunate RMT lean, was 4 Exalts. Or less. (I heard GGG crippled them since, so maybe even less than 4 now.)

(2) Someone that buys 4 Exalts isn't sitting on top of the food chain; most RMT buyers are at the bottom and feeding their currency upward.

Spoiler

But more importantly, even black market arbitrage isn't so easy that you can get 10 times your input back. Truth is, it's like legit arbitrage with slightly more scamming. In real life, for example, you might cut the cocaine a bit... but if you give people product that's only 10% straight dope you're probably going to have some folks looking to kill you. The same goes for RMT arbitrage in this game; if you flip something into ten times as much, it likely involved plenty of good, old-fashioned market tycoon work, most of it as legit as non-farming wealth acquisition comes.

(3) The people profiting from RMT aren't trading, they are botting. The buyers are just suckers feeding the botting machine, and likely getting ripped off in the process. Just like people who buy drugs, their principle sin is not in their actions per se, but in the machinery their dollars go to support.

(1) I said no such thing.

(2) partially true. read my post again: you RMT 4 Exalts like a low-life scum, use them to buy whatever you can buy for 4 Exalts (ripping people off as a buyer, a.k.a low-balling newbies), equip some of what you bought to do farming, and sell the rest for insane profit (this time, ripping people off as a seller) to gain your top-of-the-food-chain wealth. scam and cheat your currency upward.
and once you're there, you can gain some more wealth. scamming people by starting a fake "Mirroring Service" for example.

also, saying 4 Exalts is "bottom of the food chain" is ignoring most of the player-base.
4 million dollars puts you at the bottom of the Forbes list - but you're still part of "the 1%".

(3) they are doing both. although I didn't really understand how your drug-trade example has to do with the case at hand.

I do some sporadic & limited crafting of gear: 4-socket, 4-link, leveling blue items, occasional chance of jewellery, occasional alc on 4L white gear, another scour+alc if the roll was really bad...

But I mostly just hoard gold orbs for shopping.

I don't try to sell rare items anymore, because nobody is buying anything. I mostly sell (quality) skill gems and the better leveling unique (other low level uniques go directly into scrapland or are offered for free)

PS
If 4 ex (in gold orbs) is bottom of the food-chain, then I must be sub-bottom, despite my above average gameplay time in the last month / two.

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Fleshbits wrote:

Spoiler

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

@Fleshbits: What do you believe is average fusings to make 5L? What affixes are you looking for and how many Chaos do you believe it would take?

5L is actually pretty rare; my hunch is that the market isn't overpricing. But I'll wait for your reply before jumping to conclusions.

From all the posts and googling that I've gone through. I believe it takes an average of 300 jewelers to 6s, 50 jewelers to 5s, and 150 fusings to 5L a 6s, and 300 fusings to 5L a 5s. It's all guesses just based on reading through hundreds of pages of varying logs. Most people I've talked to though seem to agree that it is roughly an exalt worth of fusings.

Not too bad. Little low though.

The odds for Jewelers are known; it's 5/306 for 5s. Which is essentially 1 in 61. 1/306 for 6s. I'd say max charge would be 0.15 Ex for 5s, 0.75 for 6s.

I ran the Community 6s Fusing Log up until 0.11 (at which point I quit). Over 115,000 Fusings worth of data. The results from that gave about 125 for a 5L and 900 for a 6L. I didn't collect data on 5s; I'll assume 250. So 1.25 Ex 6s, 2.5 Ex 5s.

Which pretty much means 2 Ex max price for either, as the 6s is cheaper to make and better anyway. You should be expecting about half of max, which would indeed be 1 Ex. What's likely going on here is these holdouts are trying to get 1.5 (or maybe even 2). Like I edited in earlier (didn't make the quote), overpriced listings will go stale and thus get most notice.

And that's just to craft it white.

I am by no means expert in Chaos evaluation.