The result after 3500 orb of chance WHOA!

I would say only that. "You took your chances and spent them" my friend.
Good luck next time !

I hate it when people make threads on this site thinking GGG or the game owes them something for nothing. Are you going to go bitch or write a post/email to the Casino's after you lose all your money there? I don't think so and if you do yo will be laughed at. LOL

actually i've seen shavronnes chanced in anarchy, by friend. you were just unlucky.

You could've at least 6L before chancing!

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Mivvi wrote:

Statistically speaking, for every orb of chance that doesn't work, the chances that the next one will work has increased. So stick in there OP!

Statistically speaking, that's exactly not true. :P

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Otiveht wrote:

I hate it when people make threads on this site thinking GGG or the game owes them something for nothing. Are you going to go bitch or write a post/email to the Casino's after you lose all your money there? I don't think so and if you do yo will be laughed at. LOL

OP was sarcastic, sure, but I don't see any bitching. Did you just come into the thread and comment without reading?

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ac429 wrote:

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Mivvi wrote:

Statistically speaking, for every orb of chance that doesn't work, the chances that the next one will work has increased. So stick in there OP!

Statistically speaking, that's exactly not true. :P

Some people have no idea how RNG and probability work.

spent 4 exalts on chances and scours and chanced koams at the 185 chance/scour mark

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Reashu wrote:

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Mivvi wrote:

Statistically speaking, for every orb of chance that doesn't work, the chances that the next one will work has increased. So stick in there OP!

That's backwards. If you see 3500 orbs fail, the only reasonable conclusion is that the chance of success is actually really low. For each failed orb, your estimated chances decrease.

If you roll 100 ones in a row on a six-sided die, are you going to assume that the next 100 rolls will be sixes, or are you going to assume that it's a loaded die?

No, it is true that statistically speaking you are more likely to see the desired result the more times you try. The gambler's fallacy is also true in that a simple success or failure has no actual bearing on whether the next trial will be a success or failure.

If you roll 100 ones in a row on a 6-sided die, you could have a loaded die, or you could just have been very lucky (or unlucky) to get that result so many times.

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b15h09 wrote:

They changed orbs so chancing kaom's/shav's is much more difficult now. Orbs are for currency, not crafting.

WTF are you smoking....