The result after 3500 orb of chance WHOA!

I like orbs of chance. The odds of getting anything good are miniscule but it's just like buying a lottery ticket.

Isn't the odds something like 1 in 300, to get a Unique from Chancing?
That's assuming there is only 1 possible Unique variant of the White item.

So the way I see it, unless a Unique is worth more than 300 Chances, it isn't worth Chancing a White item.

Just convert to Scouring/Regret.

(I only Chance Occultist's, still no Shavronne's... Why RNG Gods... WHY?!)

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Sheriff_K wrote:

Isn't the odds something like 1 in 300], to get a Unique from Chancing?
That's assuming there is only 1 possible Unique variant of the White item.

So the way I see it, unless a Unique is worth more than 300 Chances, it isn't worth Chancing a White item.

Just convert to Scouring/Regret.

The odds are supposed to be fairly equivalent to a unique dropping. 1:300 sounds way too low.

I'm pretty sure it varies according to the unique, but I'm not an authoritative source.

I haven't seen any kind of actual numbers on stuff.

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sidtherat wrote:

i play a feedback loop with uniques and chances - there is a recipe: white/blue/rare/unique of the same type gives you 5(?) chances

so i chance all base types of crap uniques i have :) as for now - it is fairly efficient as i find these white coral amulets all the time. they match nicely with unique coral amulet to form 5chance orbs

wut?

As I understand it, certain Uniques have higher chances of rolling than others in a pool of the same base item type. But other than that, the odds of a Chance giving a Unique is pretty much 1/300 or so..

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Sheriff_K wrote:

As I understand it, certain Uniques have higher chances of rolling than others in a pool of the same base item type. But other than that, the odds of a Chance giving a Unique is pretty much 1/300 or so..

source?

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websterep wrote:

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EomMage wrote:

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Mivvi wrote:

Statistically speaking, for every orb of chance that doesn't work, the chances that the next one will work has increased. So stick in there OP!

wut?

well statistically speaking its kinda* true (chancing 100 items is more likely to result in a success than chancing 1 item), but statistically speaking it is also true each time you chance you have the same probability of getting a success. so basically we can say whatever we want with statistics.

also its important to remember that there are three kinds of lies: white lies, damn dirty lies, and statistics

I hope you realize how much it hurts for math teachers/tutors to read posts like this :(. You cannot say "whatever you want" with statistics, not the way you mean. That's in regards to cherry-picking metrics and modeling methods to reach a foregone conclusion. However, this is very much a 100% objective question that deserves an objective answer.

No matter how many chance orbs you use, the chance of getting a unique *for your next chance orb* is the same as it is for someone who hasn't used any and just decided to use 1. If you use 3500 chance orbs and you didn't get it, you've made zero progress. You had a better chance of getting it across those 3500 chance orbs then someone that just used 5, but now that you used them and lost, you don't "gain" anything.

Similarly, if you flip a coin 10 times, and it comes up heads every time, it's *still* a 50/50 chance to come up heads on the next flip. This doesn't make sense to a lot of people and seems like a contradiction, but I assure you, it's not. Look up "The gambler's fallacy." For that 11th flip to have any different odds, there would have to be some outside entity keeping score and biasing the results of the next flip. Even if you believe in God, do you really think he cares enough about some coin flip to change the laws of physics so that it's more likely to come up tails?

Note that there are exceptions but only when there is "an outside entity" keeping score and biasing the results of the next outcome. A good example of this is the evasion mechanic in POE. If you have 70% evade chance and you get hit, you're basically guaranteed to dodge the next one. Similarly, if you evade a few times in a row, brace yourself... The equation takes past results into account so that evasion mitigation is less "streaky" than it is in other games. There is no evidence the same is true for chance orbs, and this would be a nightmare to code and keep track of anyway.

Assuming you used 3500 chances and 3499 scours..


Should have bought a 6L..

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Mivvi wrote:

Statistically speaking, for every orb of chance that doesn't work, the chances that the next one will work has increased. So stick in there OP!

Grandmaster troll post, amazing work. I hope you know how many people's brains you will explode with this one comment. :(