The result after 3500 orb of chance WHOA!

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Mivvi wrote:

Statistically speaking, for every orb of chance that doesn't work, the chances that the next one will work has increased. So stick in there OP!

wut?

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dima_dunedin wrote:

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b15h09 wrote:

Orbs are for currency, not crafting.

I don't think orb of chance makes any sense as currency. Simply useless

I see ppl WTBuying chance all the time, and I'm one of them

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dima_dunedin wrote:

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b15h09 wrote:

Orbs are for currency, not crafting.

I don't think orb of chance makes any sense as currency. Simply useless

8 chance = 2 scouring = 1 regret

Not efficient by any means, but it's the only way I see the orb having any value. A scratch ticket with powerball odds.

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Mivvi wrote:

Statistically speaking, for every orb of chance that doesn't work, the chances that the next one will work has increased. So stick in there OP!

Statistics have their uses, but I'm guessing that 3500 chance orb rolls doesn't qualify as statistically significant. (especially if the OP was aiming for Shav's)

Realistically, however, probability doesn't actually work like that.

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dima_dunedin wrote:

I don't think orb of chance makes any sense as currency. Simply useless

I find them quite useful, but I'm self-found & solo, and I don't put high expectations on the output. My standard ritual is to use them 5 or 6 at a time on base items I'd like to have become a decent rare.

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EomMage wrote:

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Mivvi wrote:

Statistically speaking, for every orb of chance that doesn't work, the chances that the next one will work has increased. So stick in there OP!

wut?

well statistically speaking its kinda* true (chancing 100 items is more likely to result in a success than chancing 1 item), but statistically speaking it is also true each time you chance you have the same probability of getting a success. so basically we can say whatever we want with statistics.

also its important to remember that there are three kinds of lies: white lies, damn dirty lies, and statistics

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Mivvi wrote:

Statistically speaking, for every orb of chance that doesn't work, the chances that the next one will work has increased. So stick in there OP!

That's backwards. If you see 3500 orbs fail, the only reasonable conclusion is that the chance of success is actually really low. For each failed orb, your estimated chances decrease.

If you roll 100 ones in a row on a six-sided die, are you going to assume that the next 100 rolls will be sixes, or are you going to assume that it's a loaded die?

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Aristabulus wrote:

My standard ritual is to use them 5 or 6 at a time on base items I'd like to have become a decent rare.

Did you mean 500-600 times?

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dima_dunedin wrote:

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Aristabulus wrote:

My standard ritual is to use them 5 or 6 at a time on base items I'd like to have become a decent rare.

Did you mean 500-600 times?

No, I meant five or six. As I said, self-found & solo, which translates to "poorer than dirt" most of the time. I did score a Portal gem in Anarchy, though... so that's nice.

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Aristabulus wrote:

No, I meant five or six. As I said, self-found & solo, which translates to "poorer than dirt" most of the time. I did score a Portal gem in Anarchy, though... so that's nice.

White base items of highest possible level for that area are quite rare. I always alching them

i play a feedback loop with uniques and chances - there is a recipe: white/blue/rare/unique of the same type gives you 5(?) chances

so i chance all base types of crap uniques i have :) as for now - it is fairly efficient as i find these white coral amulets all the time. they match nicely with unique coral amulet to form 5chance orbs