Explain 6L probability

Common belief is that orb of fusing randomly generate links.

OK, the 6 links are always at the same place (you will never get top left vertical link), so we have 6 place combination of 0 and 1 like 011010. The number of combination is 2^6, so your chance to get 6L is 1/64

But people report more like 1/1000, wich is close to 1/6!

This means that every link is treated as a different kind, which doesn't fit to this particular problem. Grinding Games guys would get "F" on math exam for this 6L!

Just think about a loaded dice.

Well even if you do calculate the probability based on fair rolls, you still didn't include the fact that every fuse will guarantee a change in the linkage. So at least 1 combination is crossed out every time.

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jebroni wrote:

Well even if you do calculate the probability based on fair rolls, you still didn't include the fact that every fuse will guarantee a change in the linkage. So at least 1 combination is crossed out every time.

This makes it even less

1/(64-1)

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dima_dunedin wrote:

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jebroni wrote:

Well even if you do calculate the probability based on fair rolls, you still didn't include the fact that every fuse will guarantee a change in the linkage. So at least 1 combination is crossed out every time.

This makes it even less

1/(64-1)

The chances aren't equal.

It's weighted to give you worse rolls more often.

Everything we know thus far: http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/203971

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dima_dunedin wrote:

... so we have 6 place combination of 0 and 1 like 011010. The number of combination is 2^6, so your chance to get 6L is 1/64

But people report more like 1/1000, wich is close to 1/6!

with 6 sockets there are only 5 links between. so the number of combinations is 2^5

however

that is the only thing this tells you; what possible outcomes rolling a fusing orb can have. it in no way indicates the chance of anything as you don't know whether getting a link or not getting one is a 50/50 probability.

the math for a 6 link could in fact be very simple. assume that linking two sockets is a generous 25% chance. (it probably is less) now assuming this chance doesnt alter with regards to the number of concurrent links or anything like that the probability is simply the multiplication of the 25% chance for each link:

0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 = 0.0009765625 = 1/1024

that seems like it's in the ballpark?

You take to count that there are only 2 ways to bind them in 6 ?

1-2-4-3-5-6 or 2-1-3-4-5-6 ?

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ualac wrote:

that is the only thing this tells you; what possible outcomes rolling a fusing orb can have. it in no way indicates the chance of anything as you don't know whether getting a link or not getting one is a 50/50 probability.

Chance is simply one over all possible outcomes (combinations of links). Two sockets can be linked or not, it is 50:50 probability.

Of course GG introduced some punishment and penalties in the process for the purpose of game balance and suffering of players. My idea was you can't say that linking is random process, it may be random but with some artificial statistical weights

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jasio1234 wrote:

You take to count that there are only 2 ways to bind them in 6 ?

1-2-4-3-5-6 or 2-1-3-4-5-6 ?

What do you mean? There is one way to get 6L - all sockets connected. Two ways to get 5L and so on