Explain 6L probability

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ualac wrote:

the math for a 6 link could in fact be very simple. assume that linking two sockets is a generous 25% chance. (it probably is less) now assuming this chance doesnt alter with regards to the number of concurrent links or anything like that the probability is simply the multiplication of the 25% chance for each link:

0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 = 0.0009765625 = 1/1024

that seems like it's in the ballpark?

Assuming that fusing works this way, the chance of fusing a 5L are roughly .59% -- quite close to the results that the community fusing log has turned up.

You may be on to something.

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dima_dunedin wrote:

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ualac wrote:

that is the only thing this tells you; what possible outcomes rolling a fusing orb can have. it in no way indicates the chance of anything as you don't know whether getting a link or not getting one is a 50/50 probability.

Chance is simply one over all possible outcomes (combinations of links). Two sockets can be linked or not, it is 50:50 probability.

Of course GG introduced some punishment and penalties in the process for the purpose of game balance and suffering of players. My idea was you can't say that linking is random process, it may be random but with some artificial statistical weights

When walking outside, you can either be struck by lightning on a clear day, or not be struck by lightning. That doesn't mean it's a 50:50 probability.

Makes me think it's factorial. 1/[(x-1)!]x, excluding singles since cannot be linked. I get 1-hand weapon/shield to 3-link easily. Certainly possible with factorial. Whereas 6L would indicate a very random 1 in 120, which is clearly not indicated lately. Socketing and fusing lately are *stupidly* difficult and not fun in my opinion
Lately, I'd agree with 1/[(x-1)!]x, where x cannot obviously be 1

Hopefully I wrote that out correctly. My phone isn't making it easy

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Finnien wrote:

When walking outside, you can either be struck by lightning on a clear day, or not be struck by lightning. That doesn't mean it's a 50:50 probability.

All probabilities in statistical physics are based on real life measurements, yes.

But I've never seen 6L armour in real life

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dima_dunedin wrote:

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ualac wrote:

that is the only thing this tells you; what possible outcomes rolling a fusing orb can have. it in no way indicates the chance of anything as you don't know whether getting a link or not getting one is a 50/50 probability.

Chance is simply one over all possible outcomes (combinations of links). Two sockets can be linked or not, it is 50:50 probability.

by that argument it is equally as likely to get no links on a 6S as it would be to get all of them linked.

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dima_dunedin wrote:

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jasio1234 wrote:

You take to count that there are only 2 ways to bind them in 6 ?

1-2-4-3-5-6 or 2-1-3-4-5-6 ?

What do you mean? There is one way to get 6L - all sockets connected. Two ways to get 5L and so on

technically there could be up to four different ways to get 5 links (what people call 6L).

S, E and their reverse layouts. I don't think its possible to get link layouts in a 'E' format though.

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Asmosis wrote:

technically there could be up to four different ways to get 5 links (what people call 6L).

S, E and their reverse layouts. I don't think its possible to get link layouts in a 'E' format though.

i believe the game's code prevents the top left and bottom right sockets from ever forming vertical links. this ensures that there are no "redundant" links present.

so there's exactly one 6L configuration, and two 5Ls.

The individual links are not rolled 1 at a time. A dev posted that info in another thread.

On a six socket item this is how it is rolled:

Starting with the 1st socket a roll is made to determine how many other sockets it is linked to. This roll is a number between 0 and 5. However, those 6 possibilities do not have equal chances of occurring.

If the roll is 5, you get your six link.

If it's 0, the game now moves over to the next unlinked socket (socket #2) and rolls how many sockets that one is linked to, which is a roll from 0 to 4.

If that first roll was a 2 rather than a 0, then you have a 3 link at the start of the item and the game moves onto socket #4 and rolls 0 to 2 to determine how many sockets that one is linked to.

This process continues until all unlinked sockets have been considered.

What we don't know, is the probabilities for the 0 to 5 roll, or the 0 to 4 roll or the 0 to 3 roll or the 0 to 2 roll or the 0 to 1 rolls. Which are all the possible rolls that occur when determining linkage.

I saw one person mention this so far.... The links do NOT have equal chances.

The chances are manipulated by purpose so 6 links/6 sockets are very rare.

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kasub wrote:

I saw one person mention this so far.... The links do NOT have equal chances.

The chances are manipulated by purpose so 6 links/6 sockets are very rare.

which leaves us with the question: Why?

a) so only lucky players can have it.
b) only players who brake game rules and buy 6L items from lucky players for RLM or other goods outside the game.
c) ? There is no "C"

imo, 6L should be a progression item and, together with 5L, more or less a standard item available for all participating players, not only for a) and b) players.

GGG should ask themselves this: what incentive does a player, who comes to F2P game, has to stay in end-game under geared and unable to progress unless he has 20+ exalted orbs? What are the chances for a player that reaches end game with, let's say, 3 lvl 75 characters to have 30+ exalted (or eqviv) orbs?

so again: Why?
What is the purpose of providing less fun for most of the players? Some will get hooked and farm, most will just quit (therefore won't buy anything from GGG)

One can have 6L and a shitty 6L at that, so it's not overpowered by default. You still need good rolls, good gear alongside it, good gems and a skill to use it. Sticking 5 supports is easy, using them all efficiently is usually not (mana).