fracturing/annul weighting

its not fun to have a high chance to remove the best mod and fracture the worst one. a 25% chance is already fair enough.


please rethink this. if you the slightest amount of common sense ggg, this is actually pretty damn frustrating. early league i lost 70d failing fractures 17+/- times in a row.

if u guys dont believe me, just go and buy mass +1 all spell skill gem and test you annul orb on it.

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LiMA6 wrote:

its not fun to have a high chance to remove the best mod and fracture the worst one. a 25% chance is already fair enough.


please rethink this. if you the slightest amount of common sense ggg, this is actually pretty damn frustrating. early league i lost 70d failing fractures 17+/- times in a row.

if u guys dont believe me, just go and buy mass +1 all spell skill gem and test you annul orb on it.

How would that prove anything? And what would it prove? That some people get lucky and some don't?

What chances should be there and what should be the weighting? If any at all it would be the opposite: higher tier mods get less likely. Otherwise: just alt spam til you get the mod you want, regal + exalt and you get your fracture way to easy.

RNG gonna RNG.

people, try use annul orbs to understand what im trying to say. they aren't very expensive.

this is not about using alteration orbs to get +1 all spell skill gems, and im just merely using this as an example of something that's low weight. this is more about annul having strong preference towards removing stuff of low weight. and fracturing orbs leaning heavily towards fracturing the worst mod. try it. one might think its 1 in 4 chance, its not.

you people have not crafted enough to understand the frustration.

its highly probable you've not even used a fracturing orb ever.

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LiMA6 wrote:

people, try use annul orbs to understand what im trying to say. they aren't very expensive.

this is not about using alteration orbs to get +1 all spell skill gems, and im just merely using this as an example of something that's low weight. this is more about annul having strong preference towards removing stuff of low weight. and fracturing orbs leaning heavily towards fracturing the worst mod. try it. one might think its 1 in 4 chance, its not.

you people have not crafted enough to understand the frustration.

its highly probable you've not even used a fracturing orb ever.

We totally understood what you were trying to say. You just don't understand luck/RNG

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Eeeeexcept even a 100 sample size is menial because statistics don't work that way.

If a fair coin is flipped 21 times, the probability of 21 heads is 1 in 2,097,152. The probability of flipping a head after having already flipped 20 heads in a row is 1/2. Assuming a fair coin:

The probability of 20 heads, then 1 tail is 0.520 × 0.5 = 0.521
The probability of 20 heads, then 1 head is 0.520 × 0.5 = 0.521
The probability of getting 20 heads then 1 tail, and the probability of getting 20 heads then another head are both 1 in 2,097,152. When flipping a fair coin 21 times, the outcome is equally likely to be 21 heads as 20 heads and then 1 tail. These two outcomes are equally as likely as any of the other combinations that can be obtained from 21 flips of a coin. All of the 21-flip combinations will have probabilities equal to 0.521, or 1 in 2,097,152. Assuming that a change in the probability will occur as a result of the outcome of prior flips is incorrect because every outcome of a 21-flip sequence is as likely as the other outcomes. In accordance with Bayes' theorem, the likely outcome of each flip is the probability of the fair coin, which is 1/2.

Ask the devs (if they answer at all) if annul chances are indeed 50/50. If yes, conclusion is: get luckier son.

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SuperMotte wrote:

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LiMA6 wrote:

people, try use annul orbs to understand what im trying to say. they aren't very expensive.

this is not about using alteration orbs to get +1 all spell skill gems, and im just merely using this as an example of something that's low weight. this is more about annul having strong preference towards removing stuff of low weight. and fracturing orbs leaning heavily towards fracturing the worst mod. try it. one might think its 1 in 4 chance, its not.

you people have not crafted enough to understand the frustration.

its highly probable you've not even used a fracturing orb ever.

We totally understood what you were trying to say. You just don't understand luck/RNG

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

you do not understand that im trying to say that the odds are too much. this is not even 15% chance of hitting. this is something much lower. but i have multiple reasons to believe you have not crafted much to understand this.

ive crafted multiple mirrors worth of gear, have you? how much have you crafted son?

Give it up guys. It's clear none of us will ever amount to even a fraction of OP's PoE prowess. Us lesser beings shouldn't even bother wasting our time trying to understand his woes.

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TemjinGold wrote:

Give it up guys. It's clear none of us will ever amount to even a fraction of OP's PoE prowess. Us lesser beings shouldn't even bother wasting our time trying to understand his woes.

i understand people's "rng is rng" argument, and those who think it is, i insist they go test the reality of it because its really not as rng as it seem to be.

its like college grads thinking they know so much without any hands on experience.

here i am inviting people to test b4 they assert its pure rng and luck nonsense.


ive annuled the best mod way too many times and fractured the worst far too many times, and this is not just my experience, you can google other people's experience also.

there's weighting involved than a flat 1/6 annul or 1/4 fracture. if the *ACTUAL ODDS* are much lower than 1/6 or 1/4, this would lead to frustrating experience, aka what im expressing here. i am fine breaking things at 10-15% chance even, but once you have done this enough times, its just boring.

ive not come across anyone saying "i ran 100+ fracturing orbs and my experience is different than yours"

im still hearing paper theories on how rng works from those who have no hands on experience, and even when invited to test, they still prefer their rng "complex" concepts.