fracturing/annul weighting

lol OP....wow.

https://flipsimu.com/

Even with 50 MILLION flips on a 50/50, you still don't see EXACTLY 50/50. That 1% difference could be 100s of thousands of people that get zero heads / zero "successes".

Asking us to "test" this is utterly pointless. One person could get the T0 fracture 7 times in a row. One person could NEVER get it in 100 flips. And a 3rd person might "match" the 1 in 4 odds.

The only number you need to know is what the devs tell you they set it at. Everything else is gambler's fallacy.

If I were to actually do what you ask and test it out...and get the t0 mod fractured twice in 10 orbs, what would you even say? I can BET based on your temperament you'll come back and start saying "you got lucky, lets get another person to do it". You'll keep going until you are proven "right". That is Gambler's Fallacy to a tee

and to ADD to all this: you wouldn't just have to test if its 1 in 4. You would also need to test, should it NOT be 1 in 4, every single level of mod and how they scale with each other. That would all take an ABSURD sample size.

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jsuslak313 wrote:

lol OP....wow.

https://flipsimu.com/

Even with 50 MILLION flips on a 50/50, you still don't see EXACTLY 50/50. That 1% difference could be 100s of thousands of people that get zero heads / zero "successes".

Asking us to "test" this is utterly pointless. One person could get the T0 fracture 7 times in a row. One person could NEVER get it in 100 flips. And a 3rd person might "match" the 1 in 4 odds.

The only number you need to know is what the devs tell you they set it at. Everything else is gambler's fallacy.

If I were to actually do what you ask and test it out...and get the t0 mod fractured twice in 10 orbs, what would you even say? I can BET based on your temperament you'll come back and start saying "you got lucky, lets get another person to do it". You'll keep going until you are proven "right". That is Gambler's Fallacy to a tee

so you too, how many items have you fractured this league?

Perhaps this is a good place to share something that happened to me this league then. I have 3 characters this league so far. If you look at them, you might notice the Sabo has an Omni. It was not my intention to build this character as I was not expecting to get an Omni. So what happened?

Well I really wanted to get an Annihilating Light. Wiki says it is Searing Exarch's most common drop, 42% of the time. Here's the thing--I did so many Searing Exarch fights (quest, normal, and even an Uber one) that I got an Omni (well over 2 dozen fights) but I didn't get a SINGLE Annihilating Light. To the point where I actually thought they messed with the drop rate. But if you look on trade league, it's worth nothing and there are tons of them listed.

So how do we explain this one?

I held Alt after every kill to see everything he dropped. I got tons of shields and shoes. No staff.

The thing about probability is that, with so many people playing, no matter how low the probability of something happening, it will happen to someone.

These orbs have no weighting though.

Weights are only rolled when you add a new mod to an item.

It's also worth adding a big "So... what?" to the entire core argument of this thread, because OP's claim that 25% is "fair" is just nonsense. That's a non-statement, it literally cannot be quantified or validated in ANY way since it's just "some dude's opinion." You might as well make a thread saying "buff mageblood drop chance" because it's ultimately the same thing: you're asking for game breaking OP items to be made more accessible.

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TemjinGold wrote:

So how do we explain this one?

I'm actually surprised to hear that staff is the most common drop, I think I got the shield like 10 times in a row this league. So... there you go, I guess. RNG gonna RNG.

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AintCare wrote:

I don't think its about fairness. Knowing if its 1/4 P or by mod weight is a huge info for crafting.

The OP:

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LiMA6 wrote:

its not fun to have a high chance to remove the best mod and fracture the worst one. a 25% chance is already fair enough.

Make no mistake, this is 100% about "I want more nonsense items which break the game."

And for what it's worth, I disagree about the crafting claim, because knowing the odds is not going to make ANY difference in how you craft top end rares. You're still going to start with a base, get your #1 mod, and try to fracture it. The odds being 1/4 vs 1/100 don't actually change anything, because you're still following the same path to get your mirror-level rare items.

I'm convinced devs never butt in in these conversations because they are too busy laughing their asses off at no-lifers asking others to no-life as well to "prove a point" they could easily refute.

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AintCare wrote:

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ARealLifeCaribbeanPirate wrote:

And for what it's worth, I disagree about the crafting claim, because knowing the odds is not going to make ANY difference in how you craft top end rares. You're still going to start with a base, get your #1 mod, and try to fracture it. The odds being 1/4 vs 1/100 don't actually change anything, because you're still following the same path to get your mirror-level rare items.

yes because using an item with 125/3125 is no different than one with 125/725. GG

It isn't, if there is no alternative path to the outcome you want. Players are still going to do it, either way; the only change is how many attempts it takes them.

Back before div cards were a thing, the only way to get Headhunter was chancing one in a special Nemesis map. So a lot of players with currency to burn trying to min-max their builds just... did that. For hours. Open a map with Nemesis on the device, go in with an entire inventory of chance and scour orbs... you get the idea. It didn't matter if the odds were one in ten thousand, or fifty thousand, or two hundred thousand, that was the way to get the thing they wanted so that's what players did.

OK

so for difficult fractures this league where i just gave up, i asked sellers how they got them and they said "drop" rather than they themselves fracturing it.

so i simply would like to hear if people have had different experience when they annul/frac something with ultra low weight.

but instead, i get these guys who probably never have used a fracturing orb ever and seem to think they have divine knowledge, wisdom and math.

ive done well over 100 fractures across multiple leagues and i always and always eventually resign to just buying a base after wasting a lot of currency.

annul is a lot cheaper and i have observed certain trends... but rng college boys seem to know it all too well.