fracturing/annul weighting

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TemjinGold wrote:

OP: If it helps you at all. I'm playing SSF this league and have 3 characters (Sabo, PF, and Hiero). If you look at the gear they have on, you'll realize quite a few of the pieces have +1 all skills of some sort and needed crafting methods that involved risking them to getting peeled (because I'm in SSF, I can't spend a truckload of divines protecting them completely so I resort to the cheaper "3/4 or 4/5 chance of success"). I did not make a weapon fully for Hiero because I'd been (unsuccessfully, getting close to 3 dozen fights now) farming for an Annihilating Light, which is much better than any weapon I can reasonably make.

I have a weapon with fractured +1 all among them as well. So if you want data on people succeeding, look at my gear for your answer. In all of the pieces I made, I did not fail a single one (fail being either missing the fracture, which I only had 1 orb or peeling a +1 all when crafting). This is of course a very small sample and yes I was very lucky just as you were very unlucky.

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well I like to know more than less, to each their own

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LiMA6 wrote:

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TemjinGold wrote:

Give it up guys. It's clear none of us will ever amount to even a fraction of OP's PoE prowess. Us lesser beings shouldn't even bother wasting our time trying to understand his woes.

i understand people's "rng is rng" argument, and those who think it is, i insist they go test the reality of it because its really not as rng as it seem to be.

its like college grads thinking they know so much without any hands on experience.

here i am inviting people to test b4 they assert its pure rng and luck nonsense.


ive annuled the best mod way too many times and fractured the worst far too many times, and this is not just my experience, you can google other people's experience also.

there's weighting involved than a flat 1/6 annul or 1/4 fracture. if the *ACTUAL ODDS* are much lower than 1/6 or 1/4, this would lead to frustrating experience, aka what im expressing here. i am fine breaking things at 10-15% chance even, but once you have done this enough times, its just boring.

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iMirageX wrote:

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LiMA6 wrote:

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TemjinGold wrote:

Give it up guys. It's clear none of us will ever amount to even a fraction of OP's PoE prowess. Us lesser beings shouldn't even bother wasting our time trying to understand his woes.

i understand people's "rng is rng" argument, and those who think it is, i insist they go test the reality of it because its really not as rng as it seem to be.

its like college grads thinking they know so much without any hands on experience.

here i am inviting people to test b4 they assert its pure rng and luck nonsense.


ive annuled the best mod way too many times and fractured the worst far too many times, and this is not just my experience, you can google other people's experience also.

there's weighting involved than a flat 1/6 annul or 1/4 fracture. if the *ACTUAL ODDS* are much lower than 1/6 or 1/4, this would lead to frustrating experience, aka what im expressing here. i am fine breaking things at 10-15% chance even, but once you have done this enough times, its just boring.

People are trying to teach you that the odds are separate entity not additive, 25% chance means 25% per attempt and not " I will get this on the 4th attempt ". You watch too much streamer and who for some reason thinks that odds are additive/cumulative that when craft of exile indicate that you should get this mod in 64 tries, then they assume that their result should be close to that 64 or lower if they get LUCKY. Since you're bragging about mutli mirror crafts but your characters are private, kindly look at mine and another Juggernaut in my profile. Now guess how many fracturing orb I used on the wand and amulet. Same goes with my other Juggernaut, how many fracturing orb did you think I used on my wand, amulet and chest? All rare items were crafting from scratch. You get lucky sometimes and sometimes you don't.

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LiMA6 wrote:

yet i prefer input from you than those who are 5/40 or standard players who aren't likely to have ever used any fracturing orbs. i prefer to hear actual experience than math

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SerialF wrote:

gl testing.

with binomial confidence interval calculators I could find online, it seems you need

500 test to have a +- 5% value for the odds
1000 test to have a +- 3% value for the odds
with a 99% confidence interval

that s a lot of altertion to get the mod to test on :)
and if you test with fracture orbs that s a lot of divines.

would give a good idea of the value though :)