fracturing/annul weighting

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AdRonZh3Ro wrote:

Ask the devs (if they answer at all) if annul chances are indeed 50/50. If yes, conclusion is: get luckier son.

It was suggested that the Tainted Fusing's chance wasn't going to be fiddled with, and look where we are today.

I feel for you OP.

My RNG dopamine is quite different, but still, my situation is very comparable to yours in numbers.

My poison is double-corrupting gems. This league, I double-corrupted 75 enlighten gems:
- first, I failed 23 out of 24,
- then +1'd 16 out of 51 (31% success)

The average of those 75 is about 22.7% which is close enough to the estimated 1/4 chance with Lapidary Lens from a lot of people.

I'm afraid that our chances are the same, but your investment per attempt is so much larger that it is a limiting factor to the number of attempts and simply hurts more when it happens. But I'm afraid it's still "just RNG" :(

Arguably, I had a worse streak of luck than you in the first 24 attempts, and I hade the same, identical, expected baseline chance as you...

Multiple leagues ago I had 22 failed +1s in a row as well. But this league I also had 7 Phantasmal Lightning Arrow Gems out of 25 go 21/20 Vaal -- which is mind bogglingly lucky for such a rare outcome. I'm afraid it's still all just RNG and our samples are miniscule.

Don't forget the negativity bias either. The 1 in a million that gets some sort of damage from a vaccine will make the headlines, but the other 999.999 won't. The proportion of players who've been hit by horrible luck are more likely to get together and talk about it, than those who got average or lucky outcomes.

Human brain just isn't built to comperhend random numbers and random outcomes. We have high suscepility to see patterns, hints and favorable conditions. We're not used to situations where there aren't any at all.

Suppose a national lottery, where you are drawing six numbers from 1 through 50 - with the restriction that you can't draw the same number more than once.

I can assure you that overwhelming majority of people would never pick 1,2,3,4,5,6 on their ticket. It just looks dumb, doesn't it? Why would you pick such insane sequence of numbers for the lottery? You'll never win!

In reality 1,2,3,4,5,6 has the same chance of being drawn as any other number combination. If this one is dumb then every other one is equally dumb too. Which is kinda true for playing lotteries, you are going to lose money on this.

You missed a 1/4 gamble seventeen times in a row and go cry on a forum, accusing the devs of being dishonest and creating weighted odds. Oh cry me a river ffs, the propability of 17 consecutive fails with 75% chance to fail on each attempt is still 0,75 percent. This is well within the realm of possibility. If that was like 1 in a billion or less - then yeah, we can assume weighted odds. But we are barely at 1 in 150 or so.

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i understand people's "rng is rng" argument, and those who think it is, i insist they go test the reality of it because its really not as rng as it seem to be.

its like college grads thinking they know so much without any hands on experience.

here i am inviting people to test b4 they assert its pure rng and luck nonsense.


ive annuled the best mod way too many times and fractured the worst far too many times, and this is not just my experience, you can google other people's experience also.

there's weighting involved than a flat 1/6 annul or 1/4 fracture. if the *ACTUAL ODDS* are much lower than 1/6 or 1/4, this would lead to frustrating experience, aka what im expressing here. i am fine breaking things at 10-15% chance even, but once you have done this enough times, its just boring.

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People are trying to teach you that the odds are separate entity not additive, 25% chance means 25% per attempt and not " I will get this on the 4th attempt ". You watch too much streamer and who for some reason thinks that odds are additive/cumulative that when craft of exile indicate that you should get this mod in 64 tries, then they assume that their result should be close to that 64 or lower if they get LUCKY. Since you're bragging about mutli mirror crafts but your characters are private, kindly look at mine and another Juggernaut in my profile. Now guess how many fracturing orb I used on the wand and amulet. Same goes with my other Juggernaut, how many fracturing orb did you think I used on my wand, amulet and chest? All rare items were crafting from scratch. You get lucky sometimes and sometimes you don't.

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yet i prefer input from you than those who are 5/40 or standard players who aren't likely to have ever used any fracturing orbs. i prefer to hear actual experience than math, however ive still heard plenty others who have the same sort of complaint that i have -- that it usually removes the best mod and fractures the worst.

in any case, appreciate your input.

I can share my experience but might not help with data since I don't keep track much. From my experience with crafting RF scepters, annulling all mods except the +1 to all skill gems has been good, can say 50% of the time I'll succeed, about 25% of the time I'll annul the +1 at 50/50 and rarely annul the +1 1st but it happens. Amulet alt/aug/regal then annulling the other mod was fairly good like 70% of the time in about 6-10 exact amulets. Fracturing orb, i86 glorious plate with Guatelitzi mod can quite clearly recall, 2-3 hits out of 25-30 plates. As for fracturing sceptre and amulet, I always go with the dot mod and never had unlucky streak since I can fairly recall selling and making some profit. Same with the amulet.

Aside from fracturing orbs and annuls, crafting the helmet was very painful. With 2 helmet crafted, the odds of forcing conc lvl20 is 1/9 as shown in poedb (if that is truly the weights) but felt like 1/18 or more. Not to mention losing the conc when doing Aisling and repeating the process over again.

ok ty for feedback guys, it has surely to be ggg set "player is very unlucky" mode on me

and put "player is super lucky" on streamers

Not that it helps, but I've been unlucky with this particular slot machine too. Tried to vaal a bunch of self-upgraded 20/20 gems, and none of them have gone to 21/20, or even 20/23. Nothing, or downgrade, across the board.

That's the negative thing when everything is based on RNG. Across 1000 attempts or whatever, you'll get the ratio you expect. But nobody will do this stuff 1000 times, so you either get screwed, or you get "lucky".