Divine / Exalted orb ?????

I really don't understand the issue so many people have with this change. From an economy perspective this will not affect accessibility to crafted items in trade. There seems to be some fundamental misunderstandings how an economy as large as POE works.

1. Divine Orb Supply vs Exalt Supply and Demand
Yes - it is correct that (1) Exalts have multiple sources via Div Cards and Shards which (currently!) Divine orbs do not have outside the one Div card and (2) The large supply stream from the 6-link recipe will fall away.

Furthermore Divine demand is upped through the crafting recipe significantly. Naturally this will mean that Divines will have a larger chaos to divine rate than chaos to exalts.

2. Economic Equilibrium
The above will not matter this much to the overall economy. (1) Bubblegum pricing will adjust accordingly as it does already now to exalts. (2) Accessibility to valuable unique items is increased as rolls now matter vs just the type of unique giving more accessibility and (3) crafted items will be more expensive due to the cost, but again, this is going to even itself out.

3. Caveats
Notwithstanding the above, there are two issues I see the potential for popping up.

(1) Trade practicality. There are no shards for divine orbs. With the price being likely above an exalt, it will be difficult to quantify low tier trades. I am however, pretty certain this is something GGG will address. The second trade practicality issue is trading Divines for Chaos. This will be a pain with prices in the 100s and stack sizes really need to be addressed for this.

(2) Divine Supply chain drying up
Someone else mentioned this in the thread and it's an interesting thought. What if there are no more divines on the market? I do not think this is a realistic concern as this simply will mean that prices of accessible Uniques or well rolled rares will go up and supply here never really dries up anyway. But even if, what an interesting league scenario for a month - assuming GGG doesn't pull a couple of divine div cards out of their sleave.
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CPT_Rocks wrote:
I really don't understand the issue so many people have with this change. From an economy perspective this will not affect accessibility to crafted items in trade. There seems to be some fundamental misunderstandings how an economy as large as POE works.

1. Divine Orb Supply vs Exalt Supply and Demand
Yes - it is correct that (1) Exalts have multiple sources via Div Cards and Shards which (currently!) Divine orbs do not have outside the one Div card and (2) The large supply stream from the 6-link recipe will fall away.

Furthermore Divine demand is upped through the crafting recipe significantly. Naturally this will mean that Divines will have a larger chaos to divine rate than chaos to exalts.

2. Economic Equilibrium
The above will not matter this much to the overall economy. (1) Bubblegum pricing will adjust accordingly as it does already now to exalts. (2) Accessibility to valuable unique items is increased as rolls now matter vs just the type of unique giving more accessibility and (3) crafted items will be more expensive due to the cost, but again, this is going to even itself out.

3. Caveats
Notwithstanding the above, there are two issues I see the potential for popping up.

(1) Trade practicality. There are no shards for divine orbs. With the price being likely above an exalt, it will be difficult to quantify low tier trades. I am however, pretty certain this is something GGG will address. The second trade practicality issue is trading Divines for Chaos. This will be a pain with prices in the 100s and stack sizes really need to be addressed for this.

(2) Divine Supply chain drying up
Someone else mentioned this in the thread and it's an interesting thought. What if there are no more divines on the market? I do not think this is a realistic concern as this simply will mean that prices of accessible Uniques or well rolled rares will go up and supply here never really dries up anyway. But even if, what an interesting league scenario for a month - assuming GGG doesn't pull a couple of divine div cards out of their sleave.

I wouldn't be surprsed if bots buy out all Divines, flip them and sell double or even triple price, because the supply of divines will be a lot weaker than exalts, therefore more contollable. The more in deficit something is the more speculative its trading becomes.
Also I expect many people holding onto their precious divines because of fear selling too cheap in an unknown market. For exalts we know from previous leagues what to expect - they start cheap at around 50-60c and then slowly rise, with divines it's all dark territory so selling today for 200c may be a huge mistake as they rise to 400c after day or 2. And with supply being low price fluctuations will be enormous. We're gonna see the Wall Street here.
Last edited by alex_disp#4958 on Aug 13, 2022, 8:20:59 PM
If bots will buy Divines, its not to sell them for more, its to sell them for real money. So those Divines will get to the market... eventually.
Last edited by Aynix#7757 on Aug 13, 2022, 8:30:36 PM
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Aynix wrote:
If bots will buy Divines, its not to sell them for more, its to sell them for real money. So those Divines will get to the market... eventually.

Hah, with the exalt prices those bots were spamming in global channels I expect those Divines to return to market with 10x price.
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Anngrat wrote:

I was able to buy every single craft before without any problems. But now I Will pay more for a worse crafts...


So you are just TFT Andy? For any normal player its great change.
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kuciol wrote:
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Anngrat wrote:

I was able to buy every single craft before without any problems. But now I Will pay more for a worse crafts...


So you are just TFT Andy? For any normal player its great change.


If by normal player you mean some super casual that never farmed uber bosses, or 5 orbs delirium - for them it is a great change, for sure.

But if we mean by normal player someone, who actually loves to do endgame stuff - for him it's terrible. Especially, if he mainly plays solo and does not belong to mirror shops parties or any shady business.
3.13 Was the best league ever!
3.18 Rest in peace my beloved recombinators, I'm gonna miss you...
"
Anngrat wrote:

If by normal player you mean some super casual that never farmed uber bosses, or 5 orbs delirium - for them it is a great change, for sure.

But if we mean by normal player someone, who actually loves to do endgame stuff - for him it's terrible. Especially, if he mainly plays solo and does not belong to mirror shops parties or any shady business.


By normal i mean someone who doesnt use TFT.
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kuciol wrote:
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Anngrat wrote:

If by normal player you mean some super casual that never farmed uber bosses, or 5 orbs delirium - for them it is a great change, for sure.

But if we mean by normal player someone, who actually loves to do endgame stuff - for him it's terrible. Especially, if he mainly plays solo and does not belong to mirror shops parties or any shady business.


By normal i mean someone who doesnt use TFT.


So super casuals and ssf players? Kinda weird. Also. been using tft since 3.13 - great community, great service. Experienced players, good advices, awesome bulk buying/selling service, dunno what's your problem with it. Also thanks to tft sometimes I'm able to contact sellers of items who play in different timezone, and we can discuss then we will be both online to trade. Just dont trade items worth houndreds of exa to low vouched persons, and you will be totally fine.
3.13 Was the best league ever!
3.18 Rest in peace my beloved recombinators, I'm gonna miss you...
"
Anngrat wrote:

So super casuals and ssf players? Kinda weird. Also. been using tft since 3.13 - great community, great service. Experienced players, good advices, awesome bulk buying/selling service, dunno what's your problem with it. Also thanks to tft sometimes I'm able to contact sellers of items who play in different timezone, and we can discuss then we will be both online to trade. Just dont trade items worth houndreds of exa to low vouched persons, and you will be totally fine.


Only tryhards were using TFT dude. Vast majority of players hates it with passion. The simple fact that Harvest had to be balanced around this bs makes me glad its already gone. I would prefer it to make items account bound but GGG doesnt want to make such thing so i will take their solution.
Last edited by kuciol#0426 on Aug 14, 2022, 6:12:15 AM
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kuciol wrote:
Only tryhards were using TFT dude. Vast majority of players hates it with passion. The simple fact that Harvest had to be balanced around this bs makes me glad its already gone. I would prefer it to make items account bound but GGG doesnt want to make such thing so i will take their solution.


Dude. Just WTF are talking about? Spend two minutes to actually look at TFT. See? Harvest crafts are only three lines in sea of services.

Spoiler





If you think saving time by buing in bulk is tryharding...

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