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Getting hh or even mirror is 50/50
U either get it or not.
Ez
/closed
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Posted byFinYuna#1105on Mar 26, 2021, 9:19:58 AM
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DaCurse wrote:
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Aim_Deep wrote:
Is this a calculus problem? I never even took algebra but there is no way it's 500:1 still. He basically won lotto 3x in a row.
Let me ask another way. Your given 60 ancients. What are odds you'll roll 3 HH if chance is 1 in 500 per ancient.
For problems like that you can Google a binomial probability calculator and plug your numbers, first result off Google: https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
Probability of success is 1/500 so 0.002, 60 trials, 3 successes and calculate, in this case the probability is 0.00024423666 or 1 in 4094 or times 100 that's 0.0244% or if you look at P(X>=x) the chance of at least 3 Headhunters 0.0251% (But I'm pretty sure 1 in 500 is lower than the actual probability).
Thats pretty cool. So odds of doing what he did is basically 1 in 4094 not 1 in a million like I guessed. still some sick RNG. He got all my and many others RNG trying league after league with no success.
Actually I think 1/500 maybe a little high. Numbers floating about from streamers who do it all the time are like 1/370-1/500...of course no one knows for sure like 6LKing but we have a good idea it's between 1/800 - 1/1000 on q20.
Git R Dun! Last edited by Aim_Deep#3474 on Mar 26, 2021, 12:09:07 PM
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Posted byAim_Deep#3474on Mar 26, 2021, 12:03:48 PM
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Here's an interesting question... how many trials do you think it would take to tell the difference between a 1 in 5000 chance from a 1 in 1000000 chance with 95% certainty?
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Posted byShagsbeard#3964on Mar 26, 2021, 12:16:07 PM
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Not interesting to me. Whats interesting is I gotta clear this right of way today to an oil well without hitting any gas pipes on the ground and blowing us to smithereens in 12ft brush. Then get home and try wth the 30 more anceints I farmed last weekend.
Git R Dun! Last edited by Aim_Deep#3474 on Mar 26, 2021, 12:36:08 PM
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Posted byAim_Deep#3474on Mar 26, 2021, 12:30:38 PM
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"
Aim_Deep wrote:
"
DaCurse wrote:
"
Aim_Deep wrote:
Is this a calculus problem? I never even took algebra but there is no way it's 500:1 still. He basically won lotto 3x in a row.
Let me ask another way. Your given 60 ancients. What are odds you'll roll 3 HH if chance is 1 in 500 per ancient.
For problems like that you can Google a binomial probability calculator and plug your numbers, first result off Google: https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
Probability of success is 1/500 so 0.002, 60 trials, 3 successes and calculate, in this case the probability is 0.00024423666 or 1 in 4094 or times 100 that's 0.0244% or if you look at P(X>=x) the chance of at least 3 Headhunters 0.0251% (But I'm pretty sure 1 in 500 is lower than the actual probability).
Thats pretty cool. So odds of doing what he did is basically 1 in 4094 not 1 in a million like I guessed. still some sick RNG. He got all my and many others RNG trying league after league with no success.
Actually I think 1/500 maybe a little high. Numbers floating about from streamers who do it all the time are like 1/370-1/500...of course no one knows for sure like 6LKing but we have a good idea it's between 1/800 - 1/1000 on q20.
Overall it's very lucky, imagine 4094 people with 60 ancient orbs each, from all of them only 1 will get 3 headhunters
VAC RGL RGI SOE DCC
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Posted byDaCurse#3112on Mar 26, 2021, 1:39:21 PM
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DaCurse wrote:
Overall it's very lucky, imagine 4094 people with 60 ancient orbs each, from all of them only 1 will get 3 headhunters
Some might get four or five though. Quite a few will get one or two.
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Posted byShagsbeard#3964on Mar 26, 2021, 3:27:04 PM
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Aim_Deep wrote:
So what are odds of 3 HH off 60 Ancient orbs if odds of getting 1 HH is 1 per 500 anceints? Cant be 500:1 right?
I did 2 out of 21 or 23 ancient orbs in this league, and sincerely wondered if there was a bug involved into this.
Then I noticed few peoples posting on reddit during previous leagues that got similar outcomes, or even in the current one. So ... I ended to think it was just some luck.
Hf :) Last edited by Heli0nix#0378 on Mar 26, 2021, 3:32:49 PM
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Posted byHeli0nix#0378on Mar 26, 2021, 3:31:16 PM
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That's because the people who get unusual outcomes are likely to post about it, and those that get normal results don't. You can't go off posts if you want to reflect reality.
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Posted byShagsbeard#3964on Mar 26, 2021, 3:51:31 PM
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Heli0nix wrote:
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Aim_Deep wrote:
So what are odds of 3 HH off 60 Ancient orbs if odds of getting 1 HH is 1 per 500 anceints? Cant be 500:1 right?
I did 2 out of 21 or 23 ancient orbs in this league, and sincerely wondered if there was a bug involved into this.
Then I noticed few peoples posting on reddit during previous leagues that got similar outcomes, or even in the current one. So ... I ended to think it was just some luck.
Sick luck bro. I did a couple hundred and zippo not even a Ryslatha's Coil which is normal. Not complaining I know the drill.
I'd start to feel bad at 700 and nothing.
Git R Dun! Last edited by Aim_Deep#3474 on Mar 27, 2021, 11:56:56 AM
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Posted byAim_Deep#3474on Mar 27, 2021, 11:55:44 AM
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To make it fair, that's the first time I get HH with Ancients orbs, never got successful in previous leagues with these.
Sooo in theory, if we add all AO used during different leagues I'm probably over ~700//800.
Hf :)
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Posted byHeli0nix#0378on Mar 27, 2021, 2:52:59 PM
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