General Discussion - Twitch Drops - Forum

" Darkcustom2 wrote: More than 9 hours and I have 0 Drop. This is not about Luck, after 5,6 hours (5,555..) of stream the chance to get a Drop is 100% according to the web statements. As they say: ¨Every five minutes of view time you'll have a 1.5% chance to receive one of the prizes which means it would take an average of 5.5 hours of view time to receive a Twitch Drop reward. However, depending on your luck, you could receive one much sooner! Each microtransaction has its own drop rate which will dictate which cosmetic effect you'll receive if you're awarded a drop¨ Full readd here: https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2676838 This is a FALSE ADVERTISING. I wait to see how they fix this and compensate all users affected. GGG: "an average of 5.5 hours" You: "after 5,6 hours ... is 100%" This is where you are wrong. You cannot calculate 100% / 1,5% * 5 min = 5,6 hours. The latter, as GGG corectly states, is the AVERAGE time to win. Not the time after which the probability to win becomes 100%. (Which would happen only after an INFINITE number of rounds.) See, you don't have to add probabilites, you have to multiply them: The probability to NOT have won (at least once) after 5 mins is 98.5%. The probability to NOT have won after 2 rounds aka 10 min is 98.5% * 98.5% and so on. The probability to NOT have won after 100% / 1,5% = 66,6... rounds is 98.5% to the power of 66,6 ... Which is 36.5%. This number, in fact, is a universal property of the Poisson distribution. Let p be the probability to win in one round, then the probability to NOT have won after 1/p rounds (the average time to win) is: (1-p) ^ (1/p) -> 1/e for small p where e is Euler's constant. It's the same as fusings. Don't blame GGG for what your math's teacher didn't tell you.	Posted by Archinquisitor#2628 on Nov 16, 2019, 9:56:21 AM Quote this Post
The 5.5 hours is just a bullshit.. It was written by someone who has no idea how probability math works. After 5.5 hours, there is still a 36.5% chance you did not won anything.	Posted by Nathaniell123#6942 on Nov 16, 2019, 9:58:39 AM Quote this Post
Nothing... like all others events T_T Last edited by Konejito#7263 on Nov 16, 2019, 10:00:00 AM	Posted by Konejito#7263 on Nov 16, 2019, 9:59:24 AM Quote this Post
Watched it all, even before it started, no drops.	Posted by mightybirdPOE#7578 on Nov 16, 2019, 10:03:09 AM Quote this Post
" Archinquisitor wrote: " Darkcustom2 wrote: More than 9 hours and I have 0 Drop. This is not about Luck, after 5,6 hours (5,555..) of stream the chance to get a Drop is 100% according to the web statements. As they say: ¨Every five minutes of view time you'll have a 1.5% chance to receive one of the prizes which means it would take an average of 5.5 hours of view time to receive a Twitch Drop reward. However, depending on your luck, you could receive one much sooner! Each microtransaction has its own drop rate which will dictate which cosmetic effect you'll receive if you're awarded a drop¨ Full readd here: https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2676838 This is a FALSE ADVERTISING. I wait to see how they fix this and compensate all users affected. GGG: "an average of 5.5 hours" You: "after 5,6 hours ... is 100%" This is where you are wrong. You cannot calculate 100% / 1,5% * 5 min = 5,6 hours. The latter, as GGG corectly states, is the AVERAGE time to win. Not the time after which the probability to win becomes 100%. (Which would happen only after an INFINITE number of rounds.) See, you don't have to add probabilites, you have to multiply them: The probability to NOT have won (at least once) after 5 mins is 98.5%. The probability to NOT have won after 2 rounds aka 10 min is 98.5% * 98.5% and so on. The probability to NOT have won after 100% / 1,5% = 66,6... rounds is 98.5% to the power of 66,6 ... Which is 36.5%. This number, in fact, is a universal property of the Poisson distribution. Let p be the probability to win in one round, then the probability to NOT have won after 1/p rounds (the average time to win) is: (1-p) ^ (1/p) -> 1/e for small p where e is Euler's constant. It's the same as fusings. Don't blame GGG for what your math's teacher didn't tell you. Ok, now that you explain it I can understand how it works. No more complains, i think i need to learn how things works before make a complain about it. Thank you! Last edited by Darkcustom2#2986 on Nov 16, 2019, 10:41:47 AM	Posted by Darkcustom2#2986 on Nov 16, 2019, 10:30:02 AM Quote this Post
Shame on GGG. Small indie companies like klei regularly give away twitch drops to make sure their customers know how appreciated they are. but ggg hides behind some nebulous gambling mechanism that may or may not work to make sure their ”valued” customers feel scammed. but i have the perfect solution. the next time i decide to make a supporter pack purchase i am going to roll a d 20 die and if it comes up 19 or 20 ill make the purchase, if its 1-18 ill support someone who appreciates my patronage.	Posted by Meglaton#1562 on Nov 16, 2019, 10:41:41 AM Quote this Post
Absolutely appalled there isn’t any official reply to this topic. The number of people reporting receiving something is a very very small minority after browsing Reddit, Official Discord and Forums. I know how probability works, but this makes me 100% believe that something shady was going on with the drop chance or some bug. If that’s the case, why not test it before hyping it up?	Posted by Inviz1#0051 on Nov 16, 2019, 10:43:56 AM Quote this Post
Maybe all need read "Twitch Drops will run on the ExileCon weekend, from 9AM until 5PM on Saturday (November 16th NZT) and 10AM until 5pm Sunday (November 17th NZT)." that we were scammed (? lol Last edited by Rhodes7#0091 on Nov 16, 2019, 10:58:01 AM	Posted by Rhodes7#0091 on Nov 16, 2019, 10:56:16 AM Quote this Post
" Inviz1 wrote: Absolutely appalled there isn’t any official reply to this topic. The number of people reporting receiving something is a very very small minority after browsing Reddit, Official Discord and Forums. I know how probability works, but this makes me 100% believe that something shady was going on with the drop chance or some bug. If that’s the case, why not test it before hyping it up? No way in hell they would ever admit fault before they've cashed in on the viewership for Day 2. If there is an announcement it'll be near the end or after the Day 2 stream.	Posted by Zykor#0921 on Nov 16, 2019, 11:10:11 AM Banned Quote this Post
" Archinquisitor wrote: " Darkcustom2 wrote: More than 9 hours and I have 0 Drop. This is not about Luck, after 5,6 hours (5,555..) of stream the chance to get a Drop is 100% according to the web statements. As they say: ¨Every five minutes of view time you'll have a 1.5% chance to receive one of the prizes which means it would take an average of 5.5 hours of view time to receive a Twitch Drop reward. However, depending on your luck, you could receive one much sooner! Each microtransaction has its own drop rate which will dictate which cosmetic effect you'll receive if you're awarded a drop¨ Full readd here: https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2676838 This is a FALSE ADVERTISING. I wait to see how they fix this and compensate all users affected. GGG: "an average of 5.5 hours" You: "after 5,6 hours ... is 100%" This is where you are wrong. You cannot calculate 100% / 1,5% * 5 min = 5,6 hours. The latter, as GGG corectly states, is the AVERAGE time to win. Not the time after which the probability to win becomes 100%. (Which would happen only after an INFINITE number of rounds.) See, you don't have to add probabilites, you have to multiply them: The probability to NOT have won (at least once) after 5 mins is 98.5%. The probability to NOT have won after 2 rounds aka 10 min is 98.5% * 98.5% and so on. The probability to NOT have won after 100% / 1,5% = 66,6... rounds is 98.5% to the power of 66,6 ... Which is 36.5%. This number, in fact, is a universal property of the Poisson distribution. Let p be the probability to win in one round, then the probability to NOT have won after 1/p rounds (the average time to win) is: (1-p) ^ (1/p) -> 1/e for small p where e is Euler's constant. It's the same as fusings. Don't blame GGG for what your math's teacher didn't tell you. All of this text and attempt at sounding smart - without ever considering the possibility that the issue doesn't lie in the probabilities but rather the system itself not detecting people as eligible. You're tryina tell me with a straight face that only 0.75% linked their PoE & Twitch account yesterday? Because Bex said they only detected 12,000 people as eligible whereas there were 1.6m viewers total yesterday. Obviously most people who've linked their twitch & POE were simply not detected as eligible. Use your brain more often, perhaps then you'll have the capacity of deducing what the problem is. Last edited by Zykor#0921 on Nov 16, 2019, 11:13:48 AM	Posted by Zykor#0921 on Nov 16, 2019, 11:11:54 AM Banned Quote this Post