Twitch Drops

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Zykor wrote:
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Inviz1 wrote:
Absolutely appalled there isn’t any official reply to this topic. The number of people reporting receiving something is a very very small minority after browsing Reddit, Official Discord and Forums. I know how probability works, but this makes me 100% believe that something shady was going on with the drop chance or some bug. If that’s the case, why not test it before hyping it up?


No way in hell they would ever admit fault before they've cashed in on the viewership for Day 2. If there is an announcement it'll be near the end or after the Day 2 stream.


i suspect there will significantly less views on day 2 now that people know they wont be getting anything and there is no point to watch just for the drops.
Good idea GGG had to trend #1. Least they could do is drop some loot in all our registered/linked boxes as a qid pro quo even if twitch made a mistake.

Now it looks like they scammed us into watching for 6 + hours when we could have read cliffs or watched cliffs from our favorite streamer instead.
Git R Dun!
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Zykor wrote:
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Archinquisitor wrote:
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Darkcustom2 wrote:
More than 9 hours and I have 0 Drop. This is not about Luck, after 5,6 hours (5,555..) of stream the chance to get a Drop is 100% according to the web statements.

As they say:

¨Every five minutes of view time you'll have a 1.5% chance to receive one of the prizes which means it would take an average of 5.5 hours of view time to receive a Twitch Drop reward. However, depending on your luck, you could receive one much sooner! Each microtransaction has its own drop rate which will dictate which cosmetic effect you'll receive if you're awarded a drop¨


Full readd here: https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2676838

This is a FALSE ADVERTISING. I wait to see how they fix this and compensate all users affected.


GGG: "an average of 5.5 hours"

You: "after 5,6 hours ... is 100%"

This is where you are wrong. You cannot calculate 100% / 1,5% * 5 min = 5,6 hours. The latter, as GGG corectly states, is the AVERAGE time to win. Not the time after which the probability to win becomes 100%. (Which would happen only after an INFINITE number of rounds.)

See, you don't have to add probabilites, you have to multiply them:

The probability to NOT have won (at least once) after 5 mins is 98.5%.

The probability to NOT have won after 2 rounds aka 10 min is 98.5% * 98.5%

and so on.

The probability to NOT have won after 100% / 1,5% = 66,6... rounds is 98.5% to the power of 66,6 ...

Which is 36.5%.

This number, in fact, is a universal property of the Poisson distribution.

Let p be the probability to win in one round, then the probability to NOT have won after 1/p rounds (the average time to win) is:

(1-p) ^ (1/p) -> 1/e for small p where e is Euler's constant.

It's the same as fusings.

Don't blame GGG for what your math's teacher didn't tell you.


All of this text and attempt at sounding smart - without ever considering the possibility that the issue doesn't lie in the probabilities but rather the system itself not detecting people as eligible.

You're tryina tell me with a straight face that only 0.75% linked their PoE & Twitch account yesterday? Because Bex said they only detected 12,000 people as eligible whereas there were 1.6m viewers total yesterday. Obviously most people who've linked their twitch & POE were simply not detected as eligible.

Use your brain more often, perhaps then you'll have the capacity of deducing what the problem is.


GGG cannot say that there were only 12,000 active people to be selectable, I can say thousands of things and not be true, without data it is hardly credible.
I am not pissed off at receiving nothing, it doesn't really matter to me, but what you can't do is fool people. I know people who were without sleep the 9 hours of the event just to see if they had a prize and had to work the next day at 07 in the morning Grenwich time.
You can not say that on average it will cost you 5.5h and not be true, whoever wrote that ad should bear the costs of giving mtx to all accounts for his blunder.
I did watch the full stream, get no loot, but who cares?

Not me, those "drops" were jusst the icing on the cake.

The real big drop for me was that stunning, breath taking 4.0 announcement...

Specially the part where Christ said that the improved engine and many other component of it will come along the way of the release.

This plus all the subtle tackle on Blizz was more than enought to satisfy me.
Last edited by Okkuro#7906 on Nov 16, 2019, 11:28:07 AM
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Okkuro wrote:


This plus all the subtle tackle on Blizz was more than enought to satisfy me.


why is that so ..what did blizzard to you ?
Last edited by Mercille#0110 on Nov 16, 2019, 12:10:33 PM
It has been reported multiple times now (from GGG support) that there is a problem on Twitch's end that GGG can't do anything about, and that it is way too late for Twitch to do anything about either.

You can forget about these drops now guys, this was just an ambarassment of an event, like the Atziri race that EU will never see because no vod was saved.

I will probably stop watching anything Twitch+PoE related "officialy" from now on since they cannot work together properly. I'll get back to usual multiple tabs on and off log-off watching if anything is of interest.

The actual ExileCon was really awesome to watch however, they've put some huge work and effort into it, well done.


EDIT: I'm not sure how true these reports are, this is the interwebs after all.
https://www.youtube.com/user/PeipeMasta
Last edited by DjParagon#4855 on Nov 16, 2019, 12:25:53 PM
Well watching the 9hours stream was way more fun and interesting than any of those MTX anyway, and the issue is apparently from the Twitch side so--
-- a lot of tears for a bright PoE futur... ^^'

(i guess its mostly because people are soo impatient before the next Exilcon stream and have to kill time here so)
Last edited by Bakudan#2344 on Nov 16, 2019, 12:17:17 PM
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Okkuro wrote:
I did watch the full stream, get no loot, but who cares?

Not me, those "drops" were jusst the icing on the cake.

The real big drop for me was that stunning, breath taking 4.0 announcement...

Specially the part where Christ said that the improved engine and many other component of it will come along the way of the release.

This plus all the subtle tackle on Blizz was more than enought to satisfy me.


You would think different as an adult, who stayed home to watch all night. For many of us, time is precious and we can´t perform these stunts every day like kids do.

We would have watched the stream during day as a replay, if it wasn´t for the promised drops, that did not happen.
You guys need to stop being entitled whiners. You should be watching the stream for information on 3.9 and 4.0 (which has been AMAZING so far). Drops are secondary. If you are watching it just for an MTX drop then you are watching for all the wrong reasons.
to all those whipped chucks who keep SAYING OH MY GOD STFU and things like that you are a real whipped chuck the point is drops were broken and GGG won't respond or say anything about it no way 95% of people did not get drops like seriously people watched it whole day I would understand if 50% of people did not get drops but 95% ????? it's shameful saying that you need 5.50 hours on average to get a drop when it isn't even working for you is just a total bait and I don't care about how great the reveal was when they are lying to your own face.
The main char is a half-elf for the whole story OSHOCK FACEo

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