Twitch Drops

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Turrash wrote:

You guys need to stop being entitled whiners. You should be watching the stream for information on 3.9 and 4.0 (which has been AMAZING so far). Drops are secondary. If you are watching it just for an MTX drop then you are watching for all the wrong reasons.

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Ygidua wrote:

You would think different as an adult, who stayed home to watch all night. For many of us, time is precious and we can´t perform these stunts every day like kids do.

We would have watched the stream during day as a replay, if it wasn´t for the promised drops, that did not happen.

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Ygidua wrote:

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Okkuro wrote:

I did watch the full stream, get no loot, but who cares?

Not me, those "drops" were jusst the icing on the cake.

The real big drop for me was that stunning, breath taking 4.0 announcement...

Specially the part where Christ said that the improved engine and many other component of it will come along the way of the release.

This plus all the subtle tackle on Blizz was more than enought to satisfy me.

You would think different as an adult, who stayed home to watch all night. For many of us, time is precious and we can´t perform these stunts every day like kids do.

We would have watched the stream during day as a replay, if it wasn´t for the promised drops, that did not happen.

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Archinquisitor wrote:

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Darkcustom2 wrote:

More than 9 hours and I have 0 Drop. This is not about Luck, after 5,6 hours (5,555..) of stream the chance to get a Drop is 100% according to the web statements.

As they say:

¨Every five minutes of view time you'll have a 1.5% chance to receive one of the prizes which means it would take an average of 5.5 hours of view time to receive a Twitch Drop reward. However, depending on your luck, you could receive one much sooner! Each microtransaction has its own drop rate which will dictate which cosmetic effect you'll receive if you're awarded a drop¨


Full readd here: https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2676838

This is a FALSE ADVERTISING. I wait to see how they fix this and compensate all users affected.

GGG: "an average of 5.5 hours"

You: "after 5,6 hours ... is 100%"

This is where you are wrong. You cannot calculate 100% / 1,5% * 5 min = 5,6 hours. The latter, as GGG corectly states, is the AVERAGE time to win. Not the time after which the probability to win becomes 100%. (Which would happen only after an INFINITE number of rounds.)

See, you don't have to add probabilites, you have to multiply them:

The probability to NOT have won (at least once) after 5 mins is 98.5%.

The probability to NOT have won after 2 rounds aka 10 min is 98.5% * 98.5%

and so on.

The probability to NOT have won after 100% / 1,5% = 66,6... rounds is 98.5% to the power of 66,6 ...

Which is 36.5%.

This number, in fact, is a universal property of the Poisson distribution.

Let p be the probability to win in one round, then the probability to NOT have won after 1/p rounds (the average time to win) is:

(1-p) ^ (1/p) -> 1/e for small p where e is Euler's constant.

It's the same as fusings.

Don't blame GGG for what your math's teacher didn't tell you.