7k fusings later, a 6L

I've never 6L'd an item. There were a few leagues where I threw 200-300 fusings trying to 6L an item, and never got one with 200-300 fusings. Which means it's rare enough where I'm extremely unlikely to hit a 6L with 200-300 fusings. I've failed to even hit a 5L on a 6S item with that amount of fusings. As long as I can buy 6Ls for less than the 1500 fusing cost of Vorici, I'm never, ever going to gamble on 6Ls again.

People's reasons for not giving up on links are "I've already dumped X amount of fusings in this, so I can't give up now". Well, the odds of getting a successful link aren't determined at all based on how many you've already used. So you might as well cut your losses and just buy one, before you're too deep in the hole. I think 200-300 fusings is a decent amount to use to "try and get lucky", and if you get burned you're not too deep in the hole.

I think the odds are probably better at hitting 6Ling an item with 300 fusings than rolling a desirable additional mod with exalted orbs on a rare item with open slots. But that really depends on what you're aiming for. The odds could be near zero, yet the guy gambling doesn't know that. If they did, they wouldn't be gambling.

GGG isn't being transparent about the odds, because if people actually knew the odds of hitting "desirable results", orb values would tank, and the economy would be dramatically different than it is now.

I'm still not sure where the exalted orb sink in this game is. There isn't one. Craftable mods kinda lessen the value of exalted orbs. It's a guaranteed somewhat desirable result. Like if you need an extra resist or something on that piece. I have a hard time believing that 1/10th of 1% of the community are burning up exalted orbs to craft items. Sorry, I'm just not seeing it. What I think has happened is that exalted orbs simply have a perceived value by the community, and it's effectively "paper money". And people are using this "paper money" to speculate against currencies that do have a legitimate sink, such as chaos orbs, alchemy orbs, chisels, fusings, vaal orbs, etc.

In case anyone is curious, here are the probabilities of getting a 6 link after x attempts. (Assuming that there's a 1/1000 chance as it says on path of exile wiki).

It's equal to 1-(999/1000)^x . Aka the chance of getting 1 six link after x failed attempts, since 999/1000 is the probability of a failed attempt.

100 attempts: 9.5%
200 attempts: 18%
300 attempts: 26%
400 attempts: 33%
500 attempts: 39%
600 attempts: 45%
700 attempts: 50%
800 attempts: 55%
900 attempts: 59%
1000 attempts: 63%

*1500 attempts: 78%*

2000 attempts: 86%
3000 attempts: 95%
4000 attempts: 98%
5000 attempts: 99%

7000 attempts: 99.9%.

So basically the probability of not having a six link after 7000 is 0.01%, this is a rare case!!! You're just as likely to get it right away after 1 attempt as you are to have to wait until 7000, both should barely ever happen.

If you're using 700 fusies, that's like gambling on a coin flip with a 1/2 chance you'll have it by then.

The odds are in your favour after 700, but it's gambling no matter what - you could spend an infinite amount of fusies and not have a 6 link, it's just unlikely.

Not exactly the right math... or you're not phrasing your result correctly. Those are the chances of getting "at least one 6L"... not exactly one.

They're based on the incorrect assumption that there's a 1/1500 chance to 6L.

They don't take into account people quitting after getting a 6L. Not the best way to analyze this problem.

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Shagsbeard wrote:

Not exactly the right math... or you're not phrasing your result correctly. Those are the chances of getting "at least one 6L"... not exactly one.

They're based on the incorrect assumption that there's a 1/1500 chance to 6L.

They don't take into account people quitting after getting a 6L. Not the best way to analyze this problem.

No, the math is for getting 1 six link after x failed attempts, which is what we want.

I edited the math for a 1/1000 chance since this is what was on PoE wiki.

Also, if people quit then they have 0 six links, the math isn't for # of six links, it's for chance that they COULD have gotten one, which is never 100%.

I have a simple rule for 6l.

I always gamble, because it's fun that way. But i never gamble beyond 400fuse.

But thanks for trying out the massive rng, the most i spent in the past is 3500 for a carcass, after that i decided against gambling beyond my 400 amount.

I imagine to have a 6link armor at least, even with no 6link weapon, it would make a real difference for the higher maps. I cannot understand, why does a 6link needs to be so expensive. 1500 fuses for players, who are not doing trades, are really a huge number. Would it make the game so much easier, that the good players would even loose interest to play, if they would increase the chance to actually find a 6 link on the way to act10?
The only 6link I ever had are tabulas. And the thing about saving fuses until vorici could do it, is a really long way.
I would like to actually find my 6link by looting. In a grinding items game, i would say this would fit ok. Or not?

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ChihiroGreyhorn wrote:

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Shagsbeard wrote:

Not exactly the right math... or you're not phrasing your result correctly. Those are the chances of getting "at least one 6L"... not exactly one.

They're based on the incorrect assumption that there's a 1/1500 chance to 6L.

They don't take into account people quitting after getting a 6L. Not the best way to analyze this problem.

No, the math is for getting 1 six link after x failed attempts, which is what we want.

I edited the math for a 1/1000 chance since this is what was on PoE wiki.

Also, if people quit then they have 0 six links, the math isn't for # of six links, it's for chance that they COULD have gotten one, which is never 100%.

No. It's not. You might have the right idea, but you're using the language incorrectly. The chance you've calculated is the chance to "not get all fails". That's not the same as "chance of getting 1 after x fails".

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Gannicus2491 wrote:

I imagine to have a 6link armor at least, even with no 6link weapon, it would make a real difference for the higher maps. I cannot understand, why does a 6link needs to be so expensive. 1500 fuses for players, who are not doing trades, are really a huge number. Would it make the game so much easier, that the good players would even loose interest to play, if they would increase the chance to actually find a 6 link on the way to act10?
The only 6link I ever had are tabulas. And the thing about saving fuses until vorici could do it, is a really long way.
I would like to actually find my 6link by looting. In a grinding items game, i would say this would fit ok. Or not?

If you need 6l "on the way to act 10", then nothing will save you later, even if 6-link cost was 150 instead 1500 fusings. Whole campaign you can do on 5 or even 4 link, no problem with that. On the league start nobody have 6 linked armor, then after few days you can buy such thing around 20 - 30c and later on the league price of cheapest 6l stuff is equal to divine orb price. That's it.

Manual 6-linking should be used to link some exclusive stuff, like starforge, atz. disfavour, some demanded armors (belly) or rare weapons with uber states. Belive me, you can do everything with cheap rare corrupted 6l. And if you play SSF or do not trade at all, well thats mean you know what you are doing. But unless you are SSF, you have to consider, that instead of trying to collect 1500 fusings, you can sell 300 of them for approx 110-120 c and have really, really good rare, uncorrupted 6-linked armor in every league.