7k fusings later, a 6L

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Rumthorp wrote:

These experiences are what drives people away from this game. Even long time vets like me.

6,000,000 PathOfExile.exe downloads 52,000 people playing right now.

GGG are head-in-sands dgafff.

This is how they want the game. At any point they can fix all of the glaring issues, all of them, with an hour all the crap and stupidity the game has had in it since inception can be washed away.

Ask yourself why GGG doesn't do just that?

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Rumthorp wrote:

I suggest adding a safeguard in the amount of fusings you can use to 6l an item. Say over 4000 fusing uses guarentees a 6l. This would keep fusings as a gambling item with the potential to punish those unlucky enough to make it to 4k but also provide a similar guarantee that vorici provides.

This is already implemented. Just stop after 2,500 fusings and then use Vorici :-)

That you DIDNT stop after 2,500 fusings and still continued to gamble shows that ... well you WANTED to gamble. After 2,500 negative experiences you still hoped for the 6L somewhere in between 2,501 and 3,999 fusings.

In fact, you DID get value for fusings 2.501 through 3.999 at the time of use. Everytime you had a one in maybe 1.400 chance to get an immediate 6L. That you didn't, well tough luck, that's how lotteries work.

To come back complaining at the end that you didnt win and want a guaranteed win at some point ... well try doing that in a casino, always betting on zero (chance to win 1 in 37) and then demanding a cash out after you lost 100 times because "that's much more than 37, players shouldnt be punished for betting 100 times on zero and getting nothing".

For your convenience, and others, as most people do not seem to do even the simplest maths when spending 1+ months worth of farming:

probability to need more than x fusings until succesful six-link (assuming a 1/1.400 chance):

0 - 100% (you will need at least one fuse)
1 - 1.399/1.400 = 99.93%
2 - (1.399/1.400)^2 = 99.86%
3 - (1.399/1.400)^3 = 99.79%
10 - (1.399/1.400)^10 = 99.29%
100 - (1.399/1.400)^100 = 93.10%
500 - (1.399/1.400)^500 = 69.96%
1,000 - (1.399/1.400)^1,000 = 48.94% (so about one half of people will need > 1,000 fuses)
1,400 - (1.399/1.400)^1,400 = 36.77% (this equals approx. 1/e)
2,000 - 24%
3,000 - 12%
4,000 - 5.7%
5,000 - 2.8%
6,000 - 1.4%
7,000 - 0.67%
8,000 - 0.33%
9,000 - 0.16%
10,000 - 0.079%

TLDR:
1. Don't gamble unless that's fun to you. If it's not fun in hindsight, don't complain.
2. 37% of times you will be better of using Vorici from the start.
3. Some of those 37% will become VERY costly and will make you rant on forums.
4. If you want a built-in guarantee after X fuses, stop at X-1,500 fuses and then use Vorici.
5. Rule of thumb: every 1,000 fuses give 50% chance to succesfully 6-link

I'm shocked that 6l on poetrade are so cheap, considering it's so hard to make them. I found two-hand mace, 6l for the first time after over 3k hours 6l dropped and it seems to be vendor trash anyway.

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Gosen wrote:

I'm shocked that 6l on poetrade are so cheap, considering it's so hard to make them.

A lot of these are drops I suspect, and the bad bases / low ilvls aren't worth anything because nobody wants them.

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Rumthorp wrote:

In before git good, go back to diablo, just save up 1500 fusings. My point is a game shouldn't set you up for failure like this. These experiences are what drives people away from this game. Even long time vets like me.

I am the same, game simply drives me away and makes me not to give them any money for the same reason.

I dont understand how they are happy with "wow 100k max players" when D3 which is a crap game peaks 3 times that even on dead months between patches.

Its not 5 years ago when the game just came out, only thing to do was Piety and linking your items.

There are bosses now, end game, maps, many things, linking your items should be easy as hell, but nope.

I just dont understand their design choices in many things.

Crafting is shit.

Linking is shit.

Play ES or go play D3.

Double dip/abuse whatever bug was found lately or go play D3.

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Silver__Eagle wrote:

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Rumthorp wrote:

I'm here to vent. I just burned most of what I spent the past month and a half earning on trying to 6l a chest piece.

im really new to this game compared to allot of people on here.
but i do think the rng is way to much in their favour instead of the player.. it shouldn't be easy to 6 link i agree. but going above 1000 links even if you gamble or use vorici is nuts

One thing GGG forgets is that their RNG is the reason so many currency selling sites exist.
Never bought runes/items in d2, and I'm never going to do it here either as it feels like cheating. Still, trying to 6L an item with fuses is the worst thing ever.

Also, don't forget that casual players will never get 1500 fuses over the course of a season. Talking from experience here, but everyone knows that if you work 8 hours a day you can't really farm a lot.
So yeah, can't farm the 1500 fuses for Vorici, can't farm the 5+ exalted to buy the 6L you need, what option is left? Spam fuses and get suicidal.

Servers are back to past now so you have your fusing agian if you use them in past time)

Pff, I remember a day when Vorici wasn't even in the game.

Vorici was the solution to your problem. You just chose to ignore it.

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smichal52 wrote:

Just wanted to say my 2 cents on this.

Standard computer RNG (random generation) is inherently broken, since the default hardware used doesn't collect enough enviroment data to achieve good enough randomness.

That's why the good or bad RNG tends to appear in short or even longer streaks in computer software.

Between two fusing uses of any single player, there are likely several hundreds, if not thousands of other random numbers generated on the server, due to other players' actions (combat, crafting, generating new maps/areas, item drops from fallen mobs, ...), so the streaks shouldn't really be noticeable.

The bigger concern is getting enough entropy to feed the PRNG, but there are inexpensive solutions to that (mostly specialized hardware, although there are other means). A standard PC connected to network and a few peripherals generates more than enough entropy for any computer game needs. This is usually only a concern for cryptography, where you need a much higher "quality" of randomness than in computer games.

Look up e.g. "Mersenne Twister" on wikipedia.