[Research] Map increased item quantity (IIQ% ) and its role in map sustainability

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LadyZeyra wrote:
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Chris wrote:
your boss

Think about that.

Ah, didn't see that it was litterally Chris. My point stands. Chris appear to not being able to make up his mind on whether he wants players to decive each other or not. Scour mod-cannot-be-changed was definitely a deception he approved of. What's wrong with the claim that quantity mod not working? It is just another lie, Chris liked it before, what's wrong with it now?
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Zaanus wrote:
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conall88 wrote:
good idea, but sadly your sample size is statistically insignificant, and without this significance, any conclusions you draw are gonna be pretty inaccurate.


you should probably take a college stats course


a sample of 400 is pretty good for margin of error

ht tps://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat100/node/17



I don't think he meant if a sample of 400 has error but more to the fact that the data collected was so limited and noisy that it contains too much error.

IE sample of 400 of a unknown system while important may not actually be reflective of the whole system.

IE flipping a coin 10 times 100 times and 1000 times, Not all those simulations will be 50%, idea being that 10 or 100 coin flips may get you close to a "unknown" probability but its unknown how many "maps" have to be run for a statistically significant sample.

Does this make a bit more sense?
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KCIV wrote:
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Zaanus wrote:
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conall88 wrote:
good idea, but sadly your sample size is statistically insignificant, and without this significance, any conclusions you draw are gonna be pretty inaccurate.


you should probably take a college stats course


a sample of 400 is pretty good for margin of error

ht tps://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat100/node/17



I don't think he meant if a sample of 400 has error but more to the fact that the data collected was so limited and noisy that it contains too much error.

IE sample of 400 of a unknown system while important may not actually be reflective of the whole system.

IE flipping a coin 10 times 100 times and 1000 times, Not all those simulations will be 50%, idea being that 10 or 100 coin flips may get you close to a "unknown" probability but its unknown how many "maps" have to be run for a statistically significant sample.

Does this make a bit more sense?


Did you read the link? A sample size of 400 is good for a 5% margin of error. Expanding that to 1500 samples only reduces the margin of error by half.

Basically what this means is, his stats are good +/-5%
Numbers don't lie but neither does Chris so they cant both be right.
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Last edited by KCIV on Feb 17, 2016, 12:26:40 AM
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Zaanus wrote:


Did you read the link? A sample size of 400 is good for a 5% margin of error. Expanding that to 1500 samples only reduces the margin of error by half.

Basically what this means is, his stats are good +/-5%



What I think the first comment was saying is NOT that 400 is a viable random sample

But rather that a sample of 400 is significantly noisy to run any relationship (regression) analysis.
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KCIV wrote:
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Zaanus wrote:


Did you read the link? A sample size of 400 is good for a 5% margin of error. Expanding that to 1500 samples only reduces the margin of error by half.

Basically what this means is, his stats are good +/-5%



What I think the first comment was saying is NOT that 400 is a viable random sample

But rather that a sample of 400 is significantly noisy to run any relationship (regression) analysis.


400 samples is probably plenty for this, all you're doing by doing 4000 is reducing margin of error slightly.

How much do you want to bet if Chris released the real odds of getting >= same tier maps at those iiq% this guy would be very close (say, within 5% or so)?
maps drop in uber atziri

just run uber a few times youll get maps
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Chris wrote:
This thread has been linked to us a lot of times today and we're worried that it might be spreading misinformation.

Why do you care? GGG had NEVER tried to offer correct information, isn't the whole point about us getting the wrong information, being part of GGG policy? Like that famous case of how scour orbs interact with master crafting, which was intentionally kept incorrect and deceived thousands of players for a year because GGG "didn't want to correct misinformation".

I can say outright that you are wrong. We can spread as much misinformation as we want. Your job is to keep silent and ban anyone trying to spread the truth, that is what your boss wants. (Edit: I see that it was Chris himself I was replying to. It seems Chris was being schizophrenic and didn't remember what his views are about how he approved of player misinformation a few months back.)

Disagree? Then release the data officially. Because telling us "you are wrong" when you want us to speculate and guess without any facts, is meaningless. That's what happens when you keep things hidden, we come up with conclusions you don't like. If you don't enjoy being misrepresented then offer us something in return.


GGG often goes out of their way to give proper information on basic interactions. It's people's right to know that quantity of items is exactly that, an increase to the quantity of items. We should be able to have the information on how poison works. These are basic mechanics. It's up to us to find interactions like the scour master crafting, and then it is up to us to decide whether or not to release that. However, if there is a clear case of misinformation spread on basic mechanics that is drawing traffic, they have the right to step in and say that there are unaccounted variables that gives a biased result that may impact the quality of other players' experiences.

It's the difference between "Alteration Orbs re-roll properties on Magic items" and "This is the vendor recipe for an Exalted Orb"
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Chris wrote:
This thread has been linked to us a lot of times today and we're worried that it might be spreading misinformation.

You said "Not all map drops were being included in the research data", and then conclude that higher IIQ doesn't help much. Can you post your raw sample data that includes all map drops? IIQ is linear on items and maps. Note that the map boss has a chance of an extra map, which can bias the data if you don't take it into account.

Our concern is that people will read the thread and think that IIQ doesn't help (when it significantly does, as your data should show when you look at all the drops) and then receive fewer maps, further increasing the complaints about drop rate.
I agree with Chris that the thread might be spreading misinformation and certain redditors as well as Chris himself are responsible for this. This research was conducted in order to determine what strategies are the most likely to help me sustain my pool of a certain tier maps. And both Chris as well as certain other readers decided to ignore the sustainability part and made it sound as if I was happily spreading misinformation for some unclear personal gains. I'm not responsible for people misinterpretating the analysis I've done. And I would like Chris Wilson to make it clear, because his response, that ignored the very sole purpose of my work, sounds like nothing else but naming and shaming GGG has been always opposed to as the devs didn't bother to clarify how much of an impact IIQ has on sustainaility of higher tier maps, which would determine whether or not my research was accurate.
TL;DR, my concern is that people will read Chris' post and think that the I spread misinformation for unclear personal gains without actually reading the analysis and understanding its purpose.
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Last edited by Weißenberg on Feb 17, 2016, 5:20:53 AM

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